Earlier this week I posted my top 12 rankings for first basemen on Twitter. I compiled the rankings by analyzing each player’s stats and skills profiles from 2016 and prior years and looking at expected statistics from xStats.org and Mike Podhorzer’s recently-publicized xBABIP and xHR/FB to determine whether their underlying skills seemed to support their 2016 stats. I then projected how trends and skills might impact 2017 performance. I ranked Paul Goldschmidt–a consensus top seven pick–fifth among first basemen.
Goldschmidt has been one of the most consistent fantasy baseball contributors over the past five years. He is a legitimate five category contributor who–going into the rankings–I was convinced I would choose fourth overall.
When I started to dig into his stats from last season, however, I grew concerned about his drop in power and the gap between his batting average and his expected batting average according to xStats. As I dug deeper, I became even more concerned by the disturbing trends I saw in his batted ball profile.
Paul Goldschmidt
2016 vs. 2015GB/FB | LD+FB % | IFFB% | Hard Hit % | HR/FB | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 1.19 | 58.4% | 5.4% | 41.4% | 22.3% |
2016 | 1.61 | 53.5% | 14.3% | 37.5% | 19.0% |
Source: Fangraphs.com
As you can see, Goldschmidt’s GB/FB ratio spiked dramatically in 2016. Not only that, but in the second half of 2016 it was even worse at 1.82. When Goldschmidt did hit the ball in the air, he saw a dramatic increase in his infield fly ball rate (the equivalent of a strikeout, since BABIP on infield fly balls is about .001) and drops in his hard hit and HR/FB rates.
In addition, Goldschmidt’s hard hit rate on fly balls dropped precipitously, from 52.7% to 44.4%. Now some of this is likely attributed to the dramatic increase in his infield fly ball rate, but that should trouble fantasy owners, since his rate in 2016 was twice as high as in any other year and he had double-digit infield fly ball rates in all but one month of the season. Research also shows that infield fly ball rate stabilizes pretty quickly and correlates year-to-year.
Paul Goldschmidt
Statcast: 2016 vs. 2015AEV* (Rank) | AEV on FB&LD (Rank) | Barrels/BBE | Barrels/PA | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 93.1 (9th) | 96.9 (6th) | 15.5% | 8.2% |
2016 | 92.4 (25th) | 94.9 (44th) | 8.5% | 4.4% |
*Average exit velocity
Source: Baseball Savant
The Stacast data also raises red flags. While the exit velocity drops aren’t huge, the barrel rates should stop any fantasy owner thinking of drafting Goldschmidt in the first round in their tracks. A drop from 15.5% to 8.2% in barrels per batted ball event (BBE) and 8.2% to 4.4% in barrels per plate appearance (PA) brings him from elite in 2015 (11th and 12th among batters with 190 batted ball events, respectively) to middle of the pack of qualified hitters in 2016. It would be one thing if we could point to an injury or other reason for the sudden drop in power and batted ball contact quality, but I haven’t been able to find anything.
Paul Goldschmidt
2016: Expected vs. Actual StatsAVG | BABIP | HR | HR/FB | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2016 Actual | .297 | .358 | 24 | 19.0% |
2016 Expected | .280* | .335* | 24.1* | 14.6%** |
*Based on expected stats from xStats.org **Based on xHR/FB by Mike Podhorzer
As I mentioned earlier, what first raised concerns for me in poking through the data was actually the difference between Goldschmidt’s actual stats in 2016 and the underlying skills. His batted ball profile certainly took a dip and the expected stats showed someone who was overperforming his skills in batting average.
After identifying major questions about Goldschmidt’s ability to continue hitting for elite power, a .280 expected batting average raises questions about another of the categories in which the first baseman excelled in previous years. .280 is a solid batting average, but it’s not elite, and you’re drafting for elite performance in the first round.
Reinforcing concerns about Goldschmidt’s ability to maintain strong power numbers, Podhorzer’s xHR/FB calculations show he overperformed as well. The difference between a 19.0% HR/FB rate and 14.6% is significant–the difference between 24 and 18 home runs for Goldschmidt. It’s worth noting that Podhorzer xBABIP formula gives the first baseman a .351 xBABIP, which is under his actual BABIP but higher than xStats and would still leave his batting average around .285 after also factoring in the drop in home runs based on xHR/FB. The drop in power and batted ball profile, resulting in a solid but unspectacular batting average, highlights the risk I see in drafting Goldschmidt in the first round.
The final question mark that I’ll highlight is stolen bases. If Goldschmidt is no longer elite in batting average and home runs, then a lot of his value rests on his ability to steal bases. Prior to last year when he stole 32 bases, Goldschmidt’s high for stolen bases was 21. With a new manager, it’s unclear whether the first baseman will have as much free reign on the basepaths as he did in 2016. Steamer, Depth Charts and Zips projection systems all have him between 18 and 20 stolen bases. .290, 20ish home runs and 19 stolen bases with ample runs and RBI is a strong line, but Ian Desmond put up a .285, 107 runs, 22 home runs, 86 RBI and 21 stolen base line last season and finished ranked 35th in Yahoo! leagues.
The Competition
Top 5 First Basemen: Who Would You Draft?GB/FB | LD+FB | Hard Hit % | 2016 xAVG* | 2016 xHR* | Projected SB** | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player A | 1.61 | 53.5% | 37.5% | .280 | 24.1 | 19.33 |
Player B | 1.17 | 58.3% | 41.1% | .332 | 47.7 | 1.00 |
Player C | 0.67 | 69.5% | 40.3% | .278 | 42.5 | 10.33 |
Player D | 1.45 | 57.0% | 38.7% | .303 | 33.1 | 6.67 |
Player E | 0.75 | 69.7% | 43.5% | .290 | 44.0 | 4.00 |
*xStats.org **Projected stolen bases from average of Steamer, Depth Charts and Zips projections
Finally, another major reason for moving Goldschmidt (Player A) out of the first round and fifth in my first base rankings is his competition. Kris Bryant (Player C), Miguel Cabrera (Player B), Joey Votto (Player D) and Freddie Freeman (Player E) are four of the best hitters in the game. Bryant and Freeman still have significant upside given their age and the ability they’ve shown to make adjustments to their approach at the plate and still rake. Miggy is probably the most consistent and reliable four category offensive contributor in the game and Votto may just be the best pure hitter. For me, all four carry less risk than Goldschmidt and in the first round I want to minimize risk.
In closing, I still think that Goldschmidt is a very good fantasy baseball player and he will likely still provide fantasy managers with at least solid contributions in five categories. When you draft a player in the first round you expect elite performance. Unfortunately, I’m not confident Goldschmidt will meet those expectations in 2017.