Over the past many months, I’ve spent a lot of time analyzing players. Of the many reasons I love fantasy baseball, player research and analysis probably tops the list. I get into trouble frequently, however, because my interest sends me down a rabbit hole. I start with a goal of getting to 10 players in a given night and I end up stuck investigating the potential impact of Kyle Gibson’s pitch mix on his improved performance at the end of last season season.
So, here we are in early March, and I’m writing my first position preview with a dream of producing one for each position in time for them to be relevant in helping other fantasy owners. Good luck to me.
Before getting into the actual catching preview, I want to share a little about my process in case the process or tools can be helpful in your fantasy baseball research.
Process
In developing these rankings, I took an in-depth look at most players in the typical 15-team playing pool. I put together a fairly elaborate spreadsheet (link below) with my limited excel skills to provide an inventory of skills for each player. My goal in doing this is to develop a narrative about each player’s performance: What do the stats say about the players performance? Do their underlying skills support the level of performance we’ve seen? Are the skills improving or not? Where might each player have experienced some good or bad luck? How has the context for the player changed for the better or worse? And, finally, what does this mean for what I should expect in 2018?
I rely on a number of tools and wonderful resources in answering these questions, all of which you should check out:
- Fangraphs player pages and rolling average charts to analyze performance, skills and trends, from plate discipline trends to the impact of pitch mix changes on pitcher performance (how about Kyle Gibson’s slider and fastball usage!).
- xStats.org, the brain child of Andrew Perpetua and the greatest invention on Earth, which uses exit velocity and vertical and horizontal launch angle to determine the likelihood a batted ball becomes a hit or an out, a home run or a double. I use xStats.org to identify where a player may or may not have gotten lucky using expected stats vs. actual stats. Among its many terrific features, xStats has a more in-depth breakdown of batted ball profiles grouped by launch angle buckets instead of just LD/GB/FB, because a fly ball above 40° is very different than one hit at 28°. It also provides month-by-month expected stats to identify trends and learn how skill changes might be impacting the quality of batted ball (not the outcome of batted balls). Anywhere you see an “x” in front of a stat it’s from xStats.org.
- Baseball Savant for some tremendous images (launch angle charts, strike zone heat maps, spray charts, etc.), customized exit velocity, launch angle and other statcast data. Oh, and barrels. Lots of barrels.
- Brooks Baseball for pitch-by-pitch breakdowns of pitchers (i.e. swinging strike rate on Robbie Ray’s slider by month) and analysis of how batters fared against different pitch types.
Thanks to all the people behind these websites and many others I haven’t mentioned above, since I’ve had far too much fun as a result of their tremendous work.
In utilizing these resources, I’m trying to figure out how the information impacts the production of each player in the areas that matter in (most) fantasy baseball leagues: batting average/on-base percentage, runs, home runs, RBI and stolen bases. To this end, in the spreadsheet, you’ll find the following:
- Z-scores for each ranked player in the 6×6 categories using rates stats for a common denominator (i.e. HR/PA, RBI/PA, etc.). A z-score shows how many standard deviations above or below the mean (average) a player is in a particular category. Positive is good, negative is bad and, the higher the number, the better or worse the player is in that category. For instance, the highest z-score in any category belongs to Trea Turner’s SB/PA (z-score of 5.19). The z-scores are based on the mean and standard deviation from all non-pitchers with at least 50 plate appearances in 2017. 50 PA is a small sample, but I wanted to use it to identify players with small samples who might be worth further investigation. As a result, it’s probably a weaker pool than most fantasy leagues, so factor that in. It also only covers 2017 and not past seasons. Factor this in as well.
- Skills that may impact batting average (contact, batted ball profile, etc.), on-base percentage (batting average, plate discipline), runs (on-base percentage, speed), home runs (xHR, barrels, hard hit fly ball rate, hard hit pulled fly ball rate, etc.), RBI (&%#$@!#$) and stolen bases (speed…stolen bases).
The spreadsheet is imperfect at best, as this is the first time I’m on this deep of a player analysis journey, but my hope is that it gives you some useful information and a little insight into my process. If you have suggestions for improvements, I welcome them.
As part of the process, I also review each player’s Fangraphs page for historical data and rolling averages in key areas like plate discipline and batted ball profile to notice improvement, decline or stability. Many times I found some intriguing bits of information, which sent me down the rabbit hole, while in other instances the deeper dive didn’t unearth anything groundbreaking.
Are We There Yet?
Yes. We’re now previewing. You can find the rankings spreadsheet below, which ranks players in order in a vacuum, which sounds uncomfortable. It’s also not how I’d recommend playing fantasy baseball.
BatFlip Crazy 2018 Catcher Ranking Spreadsheet
Instead of explaining the rankings one-by-one, I’ll try to provide some insight on how I’m thinking about the catcher position in the context of overall strategy, team construction and value versus average draft position (ADP). I’ll start with some “Flips” (guys I’m targeting) and “Flops” (flops) and then provide other useful information I’ve come across in my research.
Is One Catcher Better Than Two?
Whether your league has one or two catchers is the most important piece of information you can have in developing your strategy at the position. Single catcher leagues dramatically devalue the position, since very little separates the value of catchers outside the top 5. In single catcher leagues I’ll wait as long as possible to draft mine, since I feel fine with the 15th best catcher or, better yet, playing good matchups week-to-week with the free agent catching pool. The only exception would be when one of the remaining catchers possesses a skill no other catcher does and it’s the last few rounds of the draft. In one catcher leagues, the rankings are more useful.
In two catcher leagues, it’s important to think ahead of time how you plan to address the position or have a group of catchers for different scenarios that might unfold. More than anything, think about how the catchers you draft play into your team construction and look for value. I think you’ll find most of it after pick 150.
Flips
Yadier Molina (150 ADP)
Molina is my fourth-ranked catcher. Up and down the catcher rankings you can find guys who will hit home runs and crush your batting average at the same time. Molina provides balance at a position sorely lacking it. He has seven consecutive years batting .270 or above, and last year he underperformed his expected batting average by 12 points (.273 AVG vs. .285 xAVG).
The Cardinals veteran catcher joined the fly ball revolution in the second half of 2017, sacrificing some of his elite contact to increase his hard hit rate and elevate the ball more regularly. After mid-June when he made the adjustment, key power metrics surged, including fly ball rate (39.8% after mid-June compared to 30.6% in the three years leading up to the change), hard hit rate (38.2% compared to 28.5%) and hard hit fly ball rate (47.5% compared to 36.4%). In the end, Molina hit 18 home runs (on 19.2 xHR) and raked in the second half:
(3/4) Molina’s xStats during the stretch demonstrate the effectiveness of his new approach:
June: .296 AVG & 4 HR / .305 xAVG & 3.6 xHR
July: .274 & 1 / .258 & 1.9
Aug: .312 & 5 / .317 & 4.9
Sep: .233 & 3 / .283 & 4.0#FantasyBaseball #Cardinals— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) February 26, 2018
Finally, Molina has an ideal role in the Cardinals lineup, currently penciled in batting fifth or sixth behind a number of OBP studs. This, along with his usual 500+ PA, should keep the RBI plentiful and runs useful. While I wouldn’t expect a repeat of his 9 stolen bases from 2017, you can count on at least a few.
The price is a bit high, but Molina should return value at his current ADP. If he drops in your draft, he’ll return even more.
Other Flips
- Assuming he finds a team before the season starts, Jonathan Lucroy should return some value. His approach changed dramatically in early May of last year. The shift to a high contact, high ground ball rate so quickly doesn’t make sense unless it was an injury, so that’s the theory I’m buying. His contact skills should help him sustain a solid batting average (he was unlucky last year posting a .265 AVG on a .286 xAVG) while double digit home runs and counting stats of an everyday catcher should help him earn more than he currently costs. If he ends up in the right situation, his value will only increase.
- Robinson Chirinos with the starting gig in Texas is essentially Mike Zunino 100 picks or more later. Chirinos actually had a higher xHR/PA (5.9%) than Zunino (5.7%). Chirinos should get a lot more at bats this season.
- Travis d’Arnaud returned to his fly ball ways last year (up 10.3% from 2016). I like him to hit 20-25 home runs.
- James McCann underperformed his expected stats across the board last season and should contribute a decent amount of pop, solid batting average for a catcher and counting stats that won’t hurt. If you’re looking for some balance late, he’s a good high-end second catcher at ADP of 299.
- Jason Castro is a solid second catcher with a balanced profile after some skills gains last year that you can get at the very end of drafts or even off the waiver wire when d’Arnaud inevitably gets injured.
Flops
Salvador Perez (ADP 97) and JT Realmuto (ADP 98)
Perez and Realmuto are two of the better catchers in the league, something the skills support, but I can’t justify paying the price for skill sets that you can find discounted much later in the draft. Both players should struggle to accumulate counting stats in putrid lineups and while each brings something elite at their position, Perez HR and Realmuto SB, I struggle to justify taking either over Molina 50 picks later as your first catcher or instead of someone like Yeones Cespedes or Masahiro Tanaka going at a similar ADP. If you want power without the price, look at Chirinos, and if you need stolen bases desperately from the catcher position, re-evaluate your life (or strategy).
Other Flops
- I love Buster Posey for his many years of greatness, but so much of his value now relies on his batting average with the power down. The power metrics were bad and Posey had one of the luckiest batting averages among catchers last season, outperforming his xAVG by 31 points (.320 AVG on .289 xAVG). His counting stats should improve with the Giants’ new additions, but it’s not enough to justify the ADP (56). Wait and pick up Lucroy. If you desperately want to address catcher early, Contreras is already good and has Sanchez-like upside.
- It looks like the Dodgers will maintain last season’s catcher rotation, which reduces the fantasy value of Austin Barnes. I love the skill set–JT Realmuto with better plate skills–but even at 190 you’re paying for him to not only replicate last season’s production but to also get a lot more plate appearances. Too much uncertainty exists for me to target him there, particularly since a number of great values can be had at other positions in that ADP range.
Other Odds and Ends
- Evan Gattis (136) should get more plate appearances as the Astros’ DH, particularly with Yuli Gurriel’s injury. He lost a lot of his power last season (his hard hit fly ball rate dropped 14.7% and his barrels/PA dropped from 7% to 4.3%), though it was likely the result of a series of injuries. Still, he’s not getting any younger and there will be competition for every spot in the lineup in a deep Astros team. I’ll pass on any uncertainty at that price.
- Wilson Ramos has some decent value, but he never got right at the plate last year, chasing too many pitches and never settling into a rhythm. Maybe it was just the transition back from injury, but the skills will have to shift back if he’s going to produce close to his 2016 level.
- I’d rather have Welington Castillo and his improving skills, including increased fly ball and hard hit rates, than Ramos and he’s 10 picks cheaper.
- Mike Zunino outperformed his expected batting average by 27 points (.251 AVG vs .224 xAVG), so he’s still the same Zunino who will hurt (or kill) your batting average. That said, he’s hitting the ball at better launch angles (fewer poor ground balls and pop ups, more line drives), which is at least progress (i.e. not sub-.200).
- Austin Hedges may be worth a flier to see if his new swing sticks. The batted ball profile was awful last year (believe it or not, he was lucky to hit .214), but he can hit for power and will get plate appearances because of his elite defense. Give him a month and monitor the skills (not the outcomes, necessarily) to see if he’s being more patient and hitting the ball at better launch angles.
- Jorge Alfaro has prospect pedigree, but he’ll probably strike out 35% of his at bats because the plate skills are very, very bad. I’m staying away.
- Alex Avila had an incredible first half, but an equally bad second half. His K% will have me passing unless it’s an OBP league.
- Speaking of OBP leagues, if you’re in one, take a look at the z-scores for OBP on the spreadsheet instead of average. These guys get a bump: Contreras, Posey, Chirinos, Iannetta, Grandal, Barnhart, Castro and the aforementioned Barnes.
- Chris Iannetta had some awesome skill gains in 2017. If he can continue them and get enough plate appearances for the Rockies, he should return some value. The park will also help his weakness in batting average.
Side Dishes and Pairings
Like a fine wine, pairings are important for two catcher leagues. Here are some two catcher pairings with purpose:
Home Run Pairing (Expensive): Sal Perez (97) and Robinson Chirinos (250)
Home Run Pairing (House): Chirinos (250) and d’Arnaud (292)
We <3 OBP: Chirinos (250) or Iannetta (267) with Martin (313), Avila (309) or Castro (380)
We <3 AVG: Lucroy (214) and Flowers (301)
We <3 AVG and Hate Power: Lucroy (214) and Barnhart (322)
Balanced 1: Lucroy (214) and d’Arnaud (292) or Chirinos (250)
Balanced 2: James McCann (299) and Jason Castro (380)
Super Cheap But Gets the Job Done: Two of d’Arnaud (292), James McCann (299), Flowers (301), Martin (313) and Castro (380)
We <3 SB: Sold out
Here are some folks outside the top catchers who excel in different fantasy categories, if you’re chasing certain skills:
Batting Average: The bar is low, but… Lucroy, Barnes, Flowers and Barnhart
OBP: Chirinos, Iannetta, Lucroy, Grandal, Barnhart and Barnes
Runs: Lucroy, Chirinos and Martin
HR: Zunino, Chirinos, d’Arnaud and Grandal
RBI: Molina (he’s ranked highly, but this will be one of his major contributions), don’t you know RBIs are out of player’s control?
SB: Don’t build your SB strategy off catcher, because you pay a high price for a handful.
Alright, that wraps up the preview. Thanks for reading and feel free to hit me up on Twitter with questions or vehement disagreements.