Heading into this season, Domingo Santana was probably best known for his injury history or, if you’re like me, as a Statcast darling from last season. In 2016, Santana finished 10th in exit velocity among batters with 140 or more batted ball events and 16th in exit velocity on line drives and fly balls. To give you a sense of the company he kept on that list, he’s followed by perennial 25+ home run hitters Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Chris Davis, Mike Napoli and J.D. Martinez.
Santana’s problem has always been that he also strikes out at the rate of Davis and Napoli, with a career strike out rate of 33.8%. That is, until 2017.
This season, Santana has dropped his strikeout rate by 9.5% down to 22.9% and the contact and plate discipline skills support the improvement. His swing percentage outside the zone (o-swing) is down to an elite 20.5% and his contact rate both inside (z-contact) and outside the zone (o-contact) have increased dramatically.
Domingo Santana Makes Contact
2017 vs. 2016: Contact and Plate DisciplineO-swing% | O-contact% | Z-contact% | SwStr | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 20.5% | 64.7% | 90.2% | 6.7% |
2016 | 23.2% | 44.3% | 82.1% | 12.1% |
(Source: Fangraphs)
While the increased contact is helpful for Santana’s batting average, particularly when coupled with his high career BABIP (.340), his exit velocity numbers are down. In 2016, his average exit velocity was 93.8 and his average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls was 96.7. So far this season, Santana’s average exit velocity sits at 87.6 and his average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives is 92.2. It appears Santana is trading power for contact.
There are some reasons for optimism. Santana’s hard hit rate is only down 2.1% from last season (36.4% compared to 38.5%) and all four of his fly balls have been hit hard this season. His expected OPS is a nice .860, according to xStats.org, and he’s batting fifth in solid Brewers lineup that plays half its games in hitter-friendly Miller Park. If Santana does hope to hit 25+ home runs like his fellow exit velocity leaders, however, he will need to improve on the 18.2% fly ball rate and 3.00 ground ball to fly ball rate in 2017.
Whether Domingo Santana’s new contact skills and elite exit velocity numbers can co-exist remains to be seen, but fantasy owners should monitor both over the next two weeks to ensure they don’t miss out on a young player taking the next step in his development.