Last weekend I went to Cincinnati to check out Great American Ball Park. It’s part of an annual pilgrimage my college friends and I go on to different baseball stadiums across the U.S. This is the 13th year of the trip overall and my seventh appearance. More than anything, it’s an opportunity catch up and stay connected with friends, but the baseball stadium element is a great bonus.
The Great America Ball Park lived up to expectations and reminded me a lot of PNC Park, my favorite stadium thus far (the views and bridges of Pittsburgh are unrivaled in my opinion). While we were at the park, we also got to witness the Reds (surprise, surprise!) dismantle the Giants.
Prior to the trip, I didn’t fully appreciate the quality of approach that many Reds hitters have shown this year or that they seem to be on the forefront of integrating analytics into the day-to-day operations (or at least the scoreboard) and managerial decisions of the team, with their bullpen usage early this season a prime example.
What I discovered is that Joey Votto is having an impact. I’m not sure whether it’s actually Votto, but a number of the players have made terrific adjustment in their approach at the plate, increasing their contact and walk rates and cutting out strikeouts.
In particular, I came away impressed with five players (and a horse race):
Eugenio Suarez
Eugenio Suarez has started off strong in 2017 and exemplifies the plate discipline many Reds hitters have showcased this season. The Reds third baseman has made giant strides in both plate discipline (3.2% walk rate increase, 4.6% fewer pitches swung at outside the zone) and contact skills (6.7% decrease in strikeout rate, 3.1% increase in contact rate and a 1.4% decrease in swinging strike rate).
He’s combined these changes with an increase in line drive rate (3.1% to 24.7%) and ground ball rate (4.7% to 45.2%), which bodes well for his batting average. The higher batting average (.308) is supported by a sustainable BABIP (.337 BABIP compared to .350 xBABIP).
While Suarez’s fly ball rate has dropped by 7.8%, he’s hitting fly balls hard at a 9.9% higher rate than in 2016 and he’s pulling them more often. The outcomes have been great, with Suarez hitting seven home runs so far in 2017 on 6.8 xHR. This puts him on pace for 33 dingers (compared to 21 last season), if he matches his 627 plate appearances from 2016.
Suarez is a player I’d be looking to buy-high, since everything points to a change in approach that is fueling the new level of production. He’s also in a great ball park and batting fifth in a lineup with OBP studs and the fastest man in baseball batting in front of him.
Zack Cozart
Zack Cozart has taken a similar path to success as Suarez early in 2017. While helped by an unsustainable BABIP of .427 (.336 xBABIP), the skills show dramatic improvements in his plate discipline and contact skills that bode well for the sustainability of his strong early season performance.
In many ways, Cozart’s “breakout” are more impressive given he’s a 31 year-old shortstop entering free agency. He’s seen an incredible 8.2% increase in his walk rate (up to 14.5%), which is more than double his 2016 rate. Like Suarez, it’s supported by a large 5.0% decrease in his swing rate outside the zone. It’s also helped by a 4.5% decrease in pitches he’s seeing in the strike zone, which may change once pitchers adjust to the new, disciplined Cozart.
Cozart’s contact rate is up 4.0% from 2016 and his swinging strike rate is down 2.8% to a terrific 5.1%. This hasn’t shown up yet in a decreased strikeout rate (it’s actually up 1.2%), but it should as the season progresses, assuming his contact rate improvements hold steady.
Thankfully, the increased contact skills haven’t cost Cozart any hard contact-his hard hit rate is up 3.3% overall and 4.1% on fly balls. According to xStats.org, he’s also increased the percentage of balls in play at an ideal launch angle of 19-26 degrees by 4.6% over last season.
Because the increased productivity from Cozart coincides with strong improvements in key batting skills, like Suarez, the new Zack Cozart seems legit. Couple that with playing half his games in a great hitters park and batting in front of Joey Votto and behind Billy Hamilton and fantasy owners should be looking to acquire the Reds second baseman or picking him up in the shallowest of formats. He could be a run scoring machine that contributes a solid batting average and RBI totals.
Adam Duvall
Adam Duvall has made similar changes to his teammates in 2017 with an increase in contact and plate discipline that hasn’t cost him any power so far. The left fielder has increased his contact rate by 5.5% and dropped his swinging strike rate 3.9%. As a result of the improved contact skills, Duvall’s strikeout rate is hovering around league average at 21.8%, a 5.2% decrease from last season.
Duvall’s walk rate is only up 1% to a respectable 7.7%, but we may see that continue to climb given the underlying skills have changed much more dramatically, including a 6.3% decrease in his chase rate on pitches outside the zone.
The better contact rates and more patient approach haven’t negatively impacted Duvall’s power thus far, though his overall hard hit rate is down 3.9%. Duvall has nine home runs already in 2017 (on 7.5 xHR), which is a higher rate of home runs per plate appearance (6.3% ) than last season when he hit 33 (5.4%). The 7.5 xHR would put him at about the same level as last season (5.3%). His average exit velocity is also up in key launch angles, including 19-26 degrees and 27-39 degrees.
Batting cleanup behind two hitters with .400+ OBPs and Billy Hamilton should put Duvall among RBI leaders this season. Thus far he’s had runners on base in 45% of his plate appearances, including 32% of plate appearances with runners in scoring position. The runs should be steady with the home runs and Eugenio Suarez batting behind him and the increased contact skills limit the floor of his batting average, which has always been the concern of fantasy owners. He’s another great player to own.
Billy Hamilton
Billy Hamilton is in this column because he’s so damn exciting. Every time he was on base this weekend, each pitch became a battle between Hamilton and the pitcher for the next base. He stole a number of bases on the weekend, though he was thrown out once after oversliding third base. Reds fans are lucky to watch him play every day.
From a skills perspective, Hamilton still chases too many pitches outside the zone (up 2.7% to 28.0%) but his contact skills have improved in 2017. His overall contact rate is up 2.1%, which is supported by a 1.1% drop in his swinging strike rate. The holy grail for Hamilton’s fantasy owners would be a walk rate above 10%, since every walk is worth 1.4 bases based on his 19 stolen bases out of 48 times on base.
Unless something changes in Hamilton’s approach this year, however, it’s not likely fantasy owners will get their holy grail in 2017.
Scott Feldman
Scott Feldman couldn’t have pitched much better when I saw him last Sunday, throwing a complete game shutout. Earlier in the week I had recommended him above his teammate Amir Garrett as a two-start options, since the skills support what he’s done so far in 2017.
While I joked in the tweet about trusting Feldman, his name is showing up in a lot of good places. First, as Daren Willman of MLB.com pointed out, he’s got a great outpitch in his curveball. Batters only have two hits on his curveball in 2017.
Feldman has also done a great job suppressing exit velocity, as he ranks third among all pitchers with more than 80 batted ball events in 2017 only allowing 25.9% of batted balls at an exit velocity above 95 mph. He also ranks fourth in average exit velocity overall at 84.3 mph.
The skills support Feldman’s improved results in 2017. His strikeout rate is up 1.2% to 17.8% and his swinging strike rate, while still low, is up 1.3% to 8.4%. He’s throwing more first-pitch strikes, more pitches in the zone overall and his contact rate is down 2.0%.
Feldman is not going to be a dominant ace, but he could be serviceable for fantasy owners, particularly in strikeout leagues without an innings pitched limit. He could also have a good shot at a decent win totals given the aforementioned and discussed Reds offense.
Kentucky Derby
While we were in Cincinnati, my friends and I traveled down to Churchill Downs to watch the 143rd running of the Kentucky Derby last Saturday. It was my first time at the race track and my first time betting on horses (I now know what exacta, trifecta, superfecta and box bets are). The atmosphere at the derby is tremendous, a good combination of stuffy formal attire with some flare and fun blazers, suits and dresses. I would highly recommend it.
A ton of people go to the derby (I heard anywhere from 150,000 to 175,000 attended in the rain last Saturday) and there are 12 other races that take place that day to keep you busy along with the mint juleps. The derby itself, the most exciting two minutes in sports, certainly did not disappoint. Especially with a little money on the line, from the gates to the finish line my friends and I screamed like a tense playoff game in October. My horse-Classic Empire-did not prevail and my superfecta (top four horses) of Classic Empire, McCracken, Irish War Cry and Always Dreaming disappointed, but it was still a great time.
Anyways, you don’t read this blog for horse racing, but do yourself a favor and go sometime. You won’t regret it (until it’s over and 175,000 people are trying to leave an event at the same time).