Justin Smoak has started off 2017 hot (sorry, I can’t help myself with the smoke puns). The Blue Jays everyday first baseman has contributed a solid batting average, counting stats and power (.281/19/8/25/0 in 5×5) to make himself one of the few reliable fantasy players on an otherwise disappointing team.
Is Smoak’s start sustainable?
Heading into this season, very few fantasy owners expected anything from Smoak and he went undrafted in most mixed leagues despite having first crack at the Blue Jays starting first base gig. Smoak has responded by putting together one of the better stretches of his career and nothing in his profile raises red flags about an imminent collapse.
Smoak has a reasonable .298 BABIP (on a .282 xBABIP) and his home run to fly ball rate (21.1%), while elevated compared to his career number (14.0%), does not immediately cry out for regression in the new home-run-happy major league baseball. Both of these factors represent great news for fantasy owners. Even better news lies in some major changes in key batting skills.
Smoak Makes Contact
As the tables below highlight, Smoak has made a lot more contact in 2017 than at any other time in his career.
Smoak's Improved Contact
Contact % | Z-contact % | SwStr % | K% | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 81.4% | 95.5% | 8.4% | 19.0% |
2016 | 72.0% | 82.2% | 12.7% | 32.8% |
Career | 76.6% | 86.6% | 10.2% | 23.9% |
Source: Fangraphs.com
The graph below also highlights a clear change in Smoak’s contact skills compared to the last couple years. 2017 represents a clear outlier, but consistent improvement across contact metrics signals an underlying change in skills.
Has Smoak traded overall contact for hard contact?
Not yet. In fact, Smoak has hit the ball harder in 2017 than throughout his career. Smoak’s hard hit rate this season has increased 5.1% over last season to 44.1%, which reflects a 9.7% increase over his career average heading into 2017. He has also increased his hard hit rate on fly balls 4.4% from 2016 to 47.4%, well above his career average of 39.0%.
In addition, Smoak’s Statcast metrics place him in the top 14 among batters with at least 80 batted ball events in key power metrics. When combined with the increased hard hit rate on fly balls, the Statcast data helps explain Smoak’s elevated home run to fly ball rate.
Smoak's Hard Contact
Barrels (rank) | Barrels/PA | AEV on FB | 95+ mph % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 14* (14) | 9.9% (13) | 95.8 mph (14) | 47.1% (14) |
Source: Baseball Savant (*Smoak hit his 15th barrel last night)
Smoak on fire or Smoak n’mirrors?
It’s unclear how Smoak has managed to increase his contact skills without sacrificing hard contact, but all of the underlying metrics support the performance we’ve seen so far in 2017. Whether Smoak changed his swing mechanics or has taken a different approach at the plate, fantasy owners should take note and add him in leagues where he remains available, which is far too many (23% owned in Yahoo!).