Coming into 2017, Lonnie Chisenhall had a reputation among fantasy owners as a converted infielder who only deserved consideration in deeper and AL-only leagues. He has surprised just about everyone by putting up solid numbers across the board, including career-best power (10HR in 175 plate appearances). Can fantasy owners count on Chisenhall to continue his power surge?
Hard and in the Air
Right now Chisenhall’s stat line (.312/.372/.584 with .328 BABIP and 10 HR) aligns pretty well with his expected stats (.295/.356/.555 with .307 xBABIP and 9.4 xHR). While Chisenhall has slightly outperformed his expected stats, they validate the power and strong start to the season.
Chisenhall’s success thus far stems from a strong increase in exit velocity at key power launch angles. The exit velocity charts by launch angle below (with 2017 on the left and 2016 on the right) highlight the improvement. In fact, his exit velocity at key launch angles has increased enough where the chart legend goes up to 100 mph this year instead of only 80 mph in 2016.
Below I’ve provided a table that highlight the extent of Chisenhall’s improvements. He has made giant leaps this season in exit velocity.
Lonnie Chisenhall: Exit velocity at key launch angles10° to 19° | 19° to 26° | 26° to 39° | |
---|---|---|---|
2017 | 96.4 | 91.3 | 91.8 |
2016 | 86.1 | 82.7 | 86.0 |
2017 +/- | +10.3 | +8.6 | +5.8 |
Source: xStats.org
Getting Selective
Chisenhall has also made big strides in plate discipline, which bodes well for the sustainability of his exit velocity increases. The Indians outfielder has dropped the percentage of pitches he swings at outside the zone by 8.2% and his overall swing rate by 5.3%.
The selective approach compared to last season has worked so far–as we’ve seen above–and it also shows in a 6.2% increase in his overall hard hit rate.
Strength Could Become Weakness
The one area of concern for Chisenhall comes from his batted ball profile, where his fly ball rate has increased by 7.2% (including a 3.6% increase in pop ups) to 48.1% of his batted balls and his line drive rate has dropped by 8.8% to 15.1%.
Chisenhall has maintained a strong batting average and solid BABIP despite the change because of the exit velocity at higher launch angles. If the exit velocity drops at all without a corresponding shift in lower launch angles, it will cost him in batting average.
Conclusion
Overall, Chisenhall’s improved power and stat line in 2017 reflect a change in both plate discipline and batted ball skills. If he can maintain the new approach and elevated exit velocity at key launch angles, he should provide great value in a strong and improving Indians lineup.