Expectation turn quickly in baseball. If you told me at the beginning of last season I’d be writing my bold predictions for 2018 about Whit Merrifield hitting 25 home runs and stealing 40 bases, I’d have told you he has a better chance of being the King of Ideal Launch Angles (more on that later). In fact, last year I wrote a bold prediction that Tyler Anderson would be more valuable than Kyle Hendricks and this year I’m writing one in support of Hendricks and his strikeout rate.
Last year I only got 1 of 10 right (thanks Shin-Soo Choo and Rougned Odor!). I was close on others, including Jake Lamb’s strong showing and Aaron Nola and James Paxton entering the fray as top 15 starting pitchers. On others it was ugly (Hello, Paul Goldschmidt).
Most importantly, bold predictions are a fun exercise at the beginning of each year (and a humbling one afterward). Let’s have some fun!
[Note: I’ve embedded a number of my own tweets in the post not to be self-indulgent or narcissistic, but to save hours on the writing of the article. I promise. Please believe me.]
[Note 2: Wherever there are predicted ratings (i.e. top 15 outfielder), I’ll use the ESPN player rater to evaluate.]
This year’s Rougned Odor (ADP: 103) is Rougned Odor, and Shin-Soo Choo (256) finishes ahead of him for a second consecutive year.
What better way to start off my 2018 bold predictions than by going back to what works, right? Last year I correctly predicted Shin-Soo Choo (then going at ADP of 320) would outproduce Rougned Odor (then going at an ADP of 38) in 5×5 leagues.
My reasons for preferring Choo and not owning any shares of Odor for the second consecutive year have not changed–Rougned Odor has the worst combination of plate skills and batted ball profile imaginable.
In fact, Rougned Odor is the Job (biblical reference here) of the BABIP gods. They are trying to bring him to his BABIP knees:
- Super low line drive rate
- High fly ball rate without a great hard hit fly ball rate
- Pull all your ground balls into the shift, which you see all the time
- Add in a high infield fly ball rate
Forget the bible, his profile sounds like the one ice cream sundae in the world I wouldn’t want to eat. All kidding aside, I see no reason to expect anything different from Odor. He has never shown the ability to adjust successfully to what are very clear flaws in both his batted ball profile and plate skills. Even when his swing rate on pitches outside the zone decreased from its peak of 44.1% to a more reasonable 36.1% in his last 80 games (a good adjustment), he wasn’t able to maintain his contact skills, which dropped 6% over a similar time period down to 73.5% over his last 80 games.
According to xStats.org, his xAVG over his last two months paints a gloomy picture: .213 in August followed by .192 in September. He hit .193 in 62 plate appearances this spring. He looks locked in batting 7th or 8th in the Rangers lineup. How much longer can they hold out on 2,170 career plate appearances with a .287 OBP? I give him until June as a regular in the Rangers lineup and he becomes unrosterable in all but the deepest fantasy leagues.
Choo is going to Choo and that’s a lot better than Odor.
Shin-Soo Choo (258) was tremendous in 2017, but still underperformed xStats:
AVG: .261 / xAVG: .274
HR: 22 / xHR: 27.8
wOBA: .339 / xOBA: .362He’s 4.5 categories of goodness, going too late. I will once again correctly predict him outperforming Odor.#FantasyBaseball #Rangers pic.twitter.com/ZQTTgcxYlJ
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) March 22, 2018
Yasiel Puig is a top 15 outfielder.
Last year, Puig finished as the 105th ranked player (28th outfielder) on ESPN’s player rater, which pretty much matches this year’s ADP of 110. At the end of last season, the positive skills started to align for Puig, who is still just 27.
Puig saw his contact rate increase at the same time he saw improvements in his fly ball rate, hard contact rate and plate discipline. He should get plenty of runs and RBI batting for the full season in the middle of the Dodgers lineup, either in front of Cody Bellinger while Justin Turner is out or behind a number of high OBP studs when Turner returns.
In the end, he’ll finish 2018 with a .280 batting average, 30/15 and 200 combined runs and RBI.
Corey Knebel loses the closer role in Milwaukee by June and posts an ERA over 5.00 on the season.
Corey Knebel stands out as one of the weaker top closers on a number of metrics.
A few areas of concern on Corey Knebel, currently going as 3rd closer (62 ADP). His ranks among top 10 closers in key skills:
F-strike: 51.5% (10)
Zone: 44.6% (8)
O-swing: 28.8% (10)
Contact: 67.7% (4)
SwStr: 14.1% (8)
K%: 40.1% (3)
BB%: 12.5% (10)#fantasybaseball #Brewers— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) February 13, 2018
Knebel has an unsustainable strikeout rate (40.1%) for his underlying skills (14.1% swinging strike rate) and he walks way too many batters. Last year he managed what is likely an unsustainable 91.9% strand rate. With the Brewers competing now, they can’t afford to stick with a closer who can’t get the job done, particularly with Josh Hader waiting in the wings. We know how this ends, right?
Eddie Rosario hits 35 home runs and drives in 115 runs.
My favorite move in drafts this year has been the Puig-Rosario double around picks 100-110 (or sometimes earlier). Both players had strong second halfs in 2017 with skill growth supporting the improvement.
If you follow me on Twitter, you know I love some rolling average graphs. This one is a beauty–a big increase in contact, bigger improvement in plate discipline and surging fly ball and hard hit rates.
Rosario had 18.3 xHR over the last three months of 2017, when he tied for fourth in MLB with 39 batted balls between 19-39° that had an exit velocity over 95 mph (follow the link to see his good company on the list). Of those 18.3 xHR, 14.9 came in the last two months alone. He’ll move into the cleanup spot in front of three strong OBP hitters (Dozier, Mauer and Sano) where he should have plenty of opportunity to wrack up RBI.
Whit Merrifield goes 25/40.
You don’t often hear his name mentioned in the same breadth as Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, but Whit Merrifield is a Statcast darling. Exit velocity may not be where he excels, but he is the King of Ideal Launch Angles.
After July 1, Merrifield was the clear leader in balls hit 10-39°, which includes line drives, hard drives (19-26°) and non-pop-up fly balls (balls hit 26-39° in xStats.org terminology), with 145. Right behind him? Castellanos, Freeman, Votto and Blackmon.
Over the same time period, here are his stats and relevant xStats:
Whit Merrifield led all of MLB in batted balls between 19-39° (key HR & damage launch angles) with 97 after July 1. Over that same period of time:
G: 84
PA: 383
AVG: .294 (.282 xAVG)
R & RBI: 54 & 48
HR: 13 (14.0 xHR)
SB: 26Whit Merrifield, folks.#FantasyBaseball #Royals
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) March 16, 2018
Doubt Whit Merrifield at your own peril. The power is legit, the batting average is legit and he stole those 26 second-half bases at a 75% success rate (81% for the full season). He’ll slot into the 2nd spot in the Royals lineup where he should have more RBI opportunities. The bats behind him–Moustakas, Perez and Duda–aren’t terrible, so he should score plenty of runs.
After it’s all said and done, Whit will be a second round pick come 2019 drafts after producing top 15 value overall in 2018.
Javier Baez finishes outside the top 250.
Much like Rougned Odor, Baez has an awful combination of plate skills…
I can’t understand Javier Baez’s ADP (100). Last year he was incredibly lucky on balls in play & had possibly the worst plate skills in baseball.
Over his last 80 games:
O-swing: 45.0%
Contact: 65.9%
SwStr: 19.2%And they were all trending worse.#FantasyBaseball #Cubs 1/3 pic.twitter.com/jBG8zAztQ2
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) February 23, 2018
…and batted ball profile:
(3/3) Finally, his batted ball profile is less than ideal.
Over his last 80 games:
GB: 51.1%
LD: 15.9%
FB: 33.3%
Hard: 32.4%He has the plate skills of Joey Gallo and the batted ball profile (and K-BB%) of an elite pitcher. Don’t invest at 100 ADP.#FantasyBaseball #Cubs pic.twitter.com/bsHuLkzucd
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) February 23, 2018
Unlike Odor, he’s been lucky recently:
(2/3) On batted balls & counting stats his production involved a lot of luck:
AVG: .273 / xAVG: .242
HR: 23 / xHR: 19.9
wOBA: .326 / xOBA: .302He managed 75R for a R/PA (better than Rizzo) & nearly one StDev above the mean despite a below average OBP.#FantasyBaseball #Cubs
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) February 23, 2018
It’s not all luck that keeps Baez on the field, since his defense is elite and, because of his enthusiasm for the game and the fun he has playing it, it pains me to think he won’t play. But the Cubs have too much talent and not enough plate appearances to go around.
I see Baez receiving limited opportunities as the season progresses and dealt at the trade deadline for reinforcements.
Yadier Molina finishes the season as the #3 catcher in fantasy.
I covered Molina in depth in my catcher preview. He took a very different approach midway through the season, giving up some contact for hard contact in the air. After his fly ball rate began to surge around June 18, he started hitting the ball a lot harder, too.
Yadier Molina shifts his approachPA | Hard Hit % | FB% | Hard Hit FB% | Barrels/PA | Balls 19-39°/PA (AEV) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 Before 6/18 | 236 | 34.7% | 33.9% | 37.5% | 3.8% | 19.1% (90.2) |
2017 After 6/18 | 311 | 37.9% | 39.8% | 48.0% | 5.5% | 23.5% (93.0) |
Source: Fangraphs & Baseball Savant
Molina has always been a strong contact hitter, so I buy the shift as a new feature of Yadier Molina 2.0. In addition to the better batted ball profile, Molina is a lock for 500+ plate appearances in a stacked lineup where he’ll slot in 5th or 6th, providing ample RBI opportunities.
In order to finish third among catchers, he’ll have to beat out one of the top three catchers and hold off a number of others. I think he does.
Kyle Hendricks posts his second full season with an ERA below 2.50 and sets a career high in strikeouts.
In this space last year, I wrote about how Tyler Anderson would be a better pitcher than Hendricks last year. After a down year, now I’m writing about how great Hendricks is. Confused yet?
I’m a Hendricks believer now. After returning from injury last year, he continued to limit good contact and got back to his near Cy Young form, supported by strong skill growth.
After Kyle Hendricks returned from a hand injury on July 24, his skills improved across the board. He also put up the following stats:
2.19 ERA
3.38 FIP
1.18 WHIP
22.7 K% (8.3 K/9)
6.0 BB% (2.2 BB/9)
.286 wOBA#fantasybaseball #Cubs 1/3 pic.twitter.com/qjvDN2MTRN— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) February 2, 2018
Two primary reasons for the improvement were increased velocity, which remains up (as in 88 mph) this spring.
2/3 One possible reason (or likely part of the reason) for the improvement: velocity. After returning from the injury, Hendricks’ velocity continued to increase from month-to-month:
July: 85.0
Aug: 85.6
Sept: 87.0
Oct: 88.0 (playoffs)#fantasybaseball #Cubs pic.twitter.com/1OgoCh3fac— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) February 2, 2018
He also relied more heavily on his chageup, which is an elite pitch:
O-swing: 51.1%
Contact: 70.2%
SwStr: 18.3%
wRC+: 56
As a result, his strikeout rate increased. Predicting a sub-2.50 ERA didn’t seem bold enough, given he’s done it in recent history, so I think he’ll couple it with a career high in strikeouts as well (at least 171) because of the increased reliance on the changeup.
Now watch this for the next two hours and ask yourself why you’ve ever questioned Kyle Hendricks.
Kyle Hendricks, 2 seam Fastball/Changeup tunnel. pic.twitter.com/xQJDe5jUFo
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 11, 2018
Matt Carpenter scores and drives in 100 runs (and the Cardinals lead the NL in runs).
In case you haven’t been paying attention, the Cardinals have an incredible lineup. The first three hitters have strong to elite OBPs (Fowler, Pham, Carpenter), while Ozuna, Molina (see above), DeJong and Gyorko can all mash. Add Jose Martinez to the equation and the lineup is tremendous.
Carpenter finds himself at the fulcrum–hitting right behind a speedy top two that will likely have a combined OBP closer to .400 than .350 and in front of three other skilled hitters. Opportunities for RBI should be plentiful and Carpenter gets on base 40% of the time, so he should score a fair number of runs.
Last year, Carpenter had launch angle issues. He took the fly ball revolution a bit too far and consistently hit the ball far and hard but at too high of a launch angle to do make it over the fence.
Matt Carpenter had launch angle issues in 2017, which resulted in a drop in AVG and–when combined with a decrease in exit velocity at HR launch angles of 19-39°–limited his HR total. I discussed it more in this thread: https://t.co/qFcvQxASNK #fantasybaseball #cardinals pic.twitter.com/kGhSc4nqSX
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) January 26, 2018
Instead, those batted balls fell into outfielders’ gloves and sunk his batting average. He identified his launch angle as an issue in the offseason and has vowed to lower it and regain his batting average. While I don’t agree with him about not selling out for home runs (he should definitely try to hit as many as possible), it seems like he’s identified a too high launch angle as the issue. This should help him increase his batting average and potentially lead to more home runs by getting his launch angle into the damage zone instead of above it.
Staying healthy is a big if for Carpenter, but if he can improve slightly on his run and RBI rates in a better lineup and log 600-650 plate appearances the century marks for both runs and RBI beckon.
Dominic Leone and Brad Boxberger combine for 65 saves.
On Tuesday, we received news that Brad Boxberger would be the closer for the Diamondbacks to start the season, and earlier in the week Dominic Leone was named the closer. Both of these outcomes, I predicted back in February (please indulge this victory, it may be the pinnacle of my 2018 fantasy baseball experience).
Dominic Leone is the #Cardinals bullpen arm I want. Skills match Gregerson’s, which are still nice, but the quality of batted balls is problematic. Slider so key to his success, but a below average pitch across the board in 2017 #FantasyBaseball
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) February 18, 2018
Brad Boxberger seemed to find his rhythm over the last month of 2017. Over his last 10 games:
O-swing: 38.0%
Contact: 66.3%
SwStr: 16.0%
K-BB: 36.6%3 pitches had SwStr% >14%, including 22% on his fourseam. He’s the one to own in the #Dbacks bullpen.#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/xWoH7AO1Ds
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) February 18, 2018
Plain and simple, Leone and Boxberger have better skills for closing than their bullpen brethren (I also think Archie Bradley is overrated, but I may be on an island there).
You can see that Boxberger began dominating again toward the end of last season. Leone began dominating earlier in the year when he increased usage of his fastball pretty dramatically in late May.
After May 24, Leone’s line: 1.80 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 23.4% K-BB.
While having a closer stick at the position is a crapshoot because of injury and performance, I think they both have as good a shot as any to hold on to the roles. The Diamondbacks stuck with Fernando Rodney through early struggles last season and the Cardinals wouldn’t have traded Randal Grichuk if they didn’t believe in Leone as a top bullpen arm. I think they overcome the odds to combine for 65 saves.
Alex Claudio saves 20 games and posts a sub-2.00 ERA with more than 8.0 K/9.
Claudio is the third in my trifecta of February closer predictions.
Alex Claudio interests me most in the #Rangers bullpen. Has a nasty sinker that limits hard contact:
Hard: 25.1%
Soft: 26.0%
FB: 16.5%
Barrels/PA: 0.9%But also some interesting skills:
O-swing: 40.5%
SwStr: 9.9%
BB: 4.9%
xOBA: .262And 2 pitches >15% SwStr.#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/j5Pq7Ngnfs
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) February 19, 2018
I have no doubt that Claudio will continue to limit hard contact and post strong ratios for fantasy owners. He boasts three strong pitches and while the sinker gets most of the volume and attention, his changeup and slider are dominant pitches with swinging strike rates above 15%.
The major question for fantasy owners is whether he can strike out enough guys, especially in K/9 leagues or leagues with an innings pitched limit (defacto K/9). I’m here to ease some concerns about the strikeouts. Toward the end of last season, Claudio began throwing his sinker slightly less and his change and slider more.
The results: 11.1% SwStr over his last 20 games, which is a better swinging strike rate than Keone Kela’s 10.8% over 2017. The only reason I can see for the Ranger choosing anyone but Claudio as closer is that he could help the team more by pitching multiple innings.
I’ve been successful thus far going with the guy with the best skills and I love Claudio’s. Draft him for the ratios, love him for the saves.
Devon Travis goes .300-90-25-70-10 in his first full healthy season.
Travis got injured last year at the worst possible time, as his performance (he had been unlucky) had started catching up with his improving skills.
Travis (ADP: 362) was beginning to put it all together before his injury last year. Health is an obvious issue, but it’s baked into the price. According to his @MLBxStats, he was rather unlucky:
PA: 197
AVG: .259 / xAVG: .294
HR: 5 / xHR: 8.2#FantasyBaseball #BlueJays (1/2)— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) March 19, 2018
(2/2) Travis’ skills & batted balls show the improvement. His plate discipline and contact improved and he started elevating the ball. It’s a small sample, but his May xStats:
PA: 103
xAVG: .328
xHR: 6.0
xOBA: .390He’s worth a shot, esp at the cost.#FantasyBaseball #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/i3z4nx8GQ7
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) March 19, 2018
Travis should have every opportunity to thrive batting in one of the top two spots in the lineup in front of Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak. He’s always had the talent, he started to show the skills in 2017 and 2018 is the year he puts it all together.
Thanks for reading! Give me a follow on Twitter, if you haven’t already, and let me know what you think.
batflipcrazy says
Thanks! Glad you enjoyed the article.