Below I’ve posted my podcast notes for the April 17 and April 20 podcast episodes, where I took a look at 33 hitters and 22 pitchers whose performance had folks on Twitter excited or worried.
Episode 72: 24 Hitter Observations
Episode 73: 9 Hitter & 22 Pitcher Observations
Please note: I did research over the course of a few days, beginning last Monday night, so the stats range from very out of date to out of date, so take them with a grain of salt. The skills may have changed, too, since we’re still dealing with small sample sizes.
My hope in sharing these notes is you get a sense of my process and can incorporate elements of it (if you find it useful) into your own process. It’s also a good accountability tool, so you can call me out when I’m wrong or shower me with praise if I’m write (insert laughing/crying emoji here).
Anyways, let me know what you think and whether I should continue to post them moving forward. Thanks for reading and listening!
Josh Bell
.314/.390/9/3/12/0
O-swing: 19.6%
Z-contact: 85.5%
Hard: 38.1%
GB: 42.9%
Statcast: .413 xwOBA, 6, 10.2%, 113.3 MPH
Notes: All of the metrics headed in the right direction over last year, some nice statcast data. Helped by juiced ball, too, as he had 26 HR in last juiced ball year.
Joey Votto
.240/.333/8/1/2/0
O-swing: 18.2%
Z-contact: 82.9%
Hard: 29.7%
GB: 40.5%
Statcast: .285 xwOBA, 3, 5.3%, 106.9 MPH
Notes: Not looking great for Votto. Contact rate down slightly, power metrics haven’t rebounded yet. Still early and the average will improve when the LD% stabilizes a bit (at 13% currently), but will the power return?
Austin Meadows
.357/.458/8/6/17/2
O-swing: 25.6%
Z-contact: 83.3%
Hard: 47.6%
GB: 35.7%
Statcast: .419 (.480 wOBA), 7, 10.9%, 110.8 MPH
Notes: Very nice looking profile for Meadows. His contact rate has improved, which was the only early season concern. Everything looks very nice. Even hitting .333 w/ HR vs. Lefites (10 PA)
Mookie Betts
.222/.324/13/3/7/1
O-swing: 13.6%
Z-contact: 95.1%
Hard: 37.3%
GB: 37.3%
Statcast: .353 xwOBA (.317 wOBA), 6.8%, 105.8 MPH
Notes: Everything looks good with Mookie. Plate discpline and contact combo actually better than last year. Hard hit rate and statcast metrics dragging a bit, but it’s still early and he’s been unlucky on balls in play. GB% up slightly, FB% high, give some time for LD% to stabilize and the average will go up.
Jung-Ho Kang
.105/.190/1/1/4/0
O-swing: 29.4%
Z-contact: 81.0%
Hard: 18.2%
GB: 45.5%
Statcast: .189 xwOBA, 1, 2.4%, 109.4 MPH
Notes: The plate discipline and contact combo aren’t terrible, but they aren’t good and are worse than previous levels. The batted ball quality is terrible with hard hit and GB% in wrong direction and the xwOBA supporting his production so far. Comfortable dropping him at this point and did last week.
Dansby Swanson
.283/.386/8/4/18/1
O-swing: 23.5%
Z-contact: 78.5%
Hard: 36.1%
GB: 33.3%
Statcast: .388 xwOBA, 6, 10.5%, 108.4 MPH
Notes: Swanson’s plate discipline has improved, but his contact rate has declined. The hard hit rate has come back down closer to career levels, though the lower GB% portends some increased power. Statcast data better, but outperforming xwOBA.
Dwight Smith Jr.
.270/.324/12/3/10/2
O-swing: 28.1%
Z-contact: 87.5%
Hard: 24.5%
GB: 42.3%
Statcast: .305 xwOBA, 2, 2.9%, 111.7 MPH
Notes: Mostly a volume play. Plate discipline and contact skills are solid, but batted ball quality isn’t elite. Been lucky so far on BIP. Don’t expect anything earth shattering.
Willy Adames
.250/.311/10/1/4/0
O-swing: 28.9%
Z-contact: 82.2%
Hard: 44.4%
GB: 50%
Statcast: .290 xwOBA, 3, 4.9%, 107.6 MPH
Notes: A lot of mediocrity in the profile. Hitting the ball hard, but too much on the ground (50%+ for second year in a row). Ride the hot streaks, but nothing in the profile calls for a breakout.
Tyler Naquin
.267/.280/4/1/4/1
O-swing: 39.6%
Z-contact: 84.9%
Hard: 41.9%
GB: 41.9%
Statcast: .359 xwOBA (.294 wOBA), 3, 6.5%, 110.5 MPH
Notes: Bad approach, with poor plate discipline, success somewhat BABIP driven .367, but looks to be pretty unlucky.
Mitch Garver
.407/.448/8/3/5/0
O-swing: 20.3%
Z-contact: 91.3%
Hard: 40.9%
GB: 40.9%
Statcast: .360 xwOBA (.538 wOBA), 10.3%, 107.2 MPH
Notes: Continues the very good plate skills – even better. Solid batted ball quality, but still lucky so far. Lucky but good. Only 29 PA, though. Batting average makes him relevant, though, despite the limited time.
Max Kepler
.259/.333/7/3/8/0
O-swing: 28.2%
Z-contact: 94.4%
Hard: 41.9%
GB: 37.2%
Statcast: .378 xwOBA (.344 wOBA), 4, 6.7%, 112.7 MPH
Notes: Everything looking good, batted ball quality looks slightly better, too. Hitting the ball harder, xwOBA likes what he’s done so far and he’s maintained the great foundation.
Amed Rosario
.265/.315/7/1/11/2
O-swing: 34.6%
Z-contact: 74.1%
Hard: 31.9%
GB: 46.8%
Statcast: .325 xwOBA (.299 wOBA), 4.1%, 107.6 MPH
Notes: Improved plate discipline is nice (-6%), though contact dop is significant, too. Batted ball quality is meh, but not the most critical thing for him.
Leonys Martin
.276/.391/7/3/5/1
O-swing: 26.9%
Z-contact: 75.6%
Hard: 34.2%
GB: 41.7%
Statcast: .359 xwOBA, 7.2%, 110.1 MPH
Notes: Plate discipline continues to improve, but contact is way down and reflects in 29% K rate. Relying right now on .371 BABIP, which isn’t sustainable or in line with his career marks. Walk rate also too high for o-swing. Expect him to fade unless the contact rate comes back around. Batted ball quality still good, though.
Marcus Semien
.325/.391/16/3/10/1
O-swing: 26.5%
Z-contact: 92.6%
Hard: 31.3%
GB: 52.2%
Statcast: .331 xwOBA (.389 wOBA), 3.4%, 105.1 MPH
Notes: Semien has developed a very solid foundation of plate discipline and contact, with the latter up more than 4% from last year. This also reflects improvement toward the end of last year in his contact rate. The batted ball quality leaves a little to be desired, though it hasn’t shown up in the outcomes yet with 3 HR. Expect the hot start to cool down a bit and him come back to earth.
Rafael Devers
.246/.343/10/0/2/1
O-swing: 30.7%
Z-contact: 87.8%
Hard: 30%
GB: 59.2%
Statcast: .310 xwOBA, 0%, 113.4 MPH
Notes: Improved plate discipline and contact rate, but very poor batted ball quality. The major concern is the escalating ground ball rate, which started toward the second half of last year.
Fernando Mejia
.143/.172/1/0/1/0
O-swing: 41.2%
Z-contact: 86.1%
Hard: 33.3%
GB: 42.9%
Statcast: .225 xwOBA, 0%, 101.1 MPH
Notes: Some improvements in plate discipline, in-zone contact and lowering of his ground ball rate. So some signs of life under the surface, but his challenge is getting at bats with Austin Hedges clearly being the better defender. Not sure he gets enough PA to turn it around.
Lewis Brinson
.197/.246/3/0/4/0
O-swing: 41.3%
Z-contact: 79.1%
Hard: 51.2%
GB: 46.3%
Statcast: .281 xwOBA, 4.6%, 112.1 MPH
Notes: Brinson continues to fight the same demons he has throughout his career – poor plate discipline and poor contact skills. Hard to be good with those two traits and the batted ball quality isn’t elite.
Yasiel Puig
.176/.208/2/2/8/1
O-swing: 40.4%
Z-contact: 85.9%
Hard: 35.1%
GB: 32.4%
Statcast: .264 xwOBA, 4, 7.5%, 107.9 MPH
Notes: Puig has struggled early and the underlying metrics tell the tale. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s pressing a bit – chase rate way up, contact down. Hard hit rate down slightly, though his GB% is also down, which is a good if it continues. Still he’s been disappointing. However, the great thing about guys with Puig’s profile is they still find ways to provide value – he now has 2 HR and 2 SB, which puts him on pace for a 20/20 season. I share this partially as a joke, partially serious, and as a reminder sample sizes are still very small and can change quickly. Or so I tell myself when my guys are struggling.
Matt Carpenter
.203/.307/9/2/4/0
O-swing: 24%
Z-contact: 86.2%
Hard: 40.4%
GB: 25.5%
Statcast: .320 xwOBA, 6.7%, 105.5 MPH
Notes: Carpenter’s seen some slight regression in plate skills and hard contact. The xwOBA is a bit of a concern, since it’s just league average and since xwOBA incorporates BB% as a key element, the fact he’s not higher up is a bit nerve wracking. Remember – Carpenter was having a similar bad start before catching fire last year, though that hot streak was a once in a career type event. It was also clear from expected metrics at the time that he was underperforming some really solid skills. That’s one of the reasons I faded him in AVG leagues – he’s one year older and last year was a career year.
Manuel Margot
.304/.316/7/2/7/1
O-swing: 25.2%
Z-contact: 86.1%
Hard: 40.4%
GB: 22.2%
Statcast: .296 xwOBA (.347 wOBA), 3.5%, 106.1 MPH
Notes: No major changes for Margot outside of the very low GB%, which I don’t think is that great a development for a hitter like him, at least from an AVG perspective, though he could benefit from the juiced ball. Pitcher aren’t scared, they’re pounding the zone (+7% zone), which is keeping him from walks despite an above average eye.
Michael Conforto
.313/.418/15/4/10/1
O-swing: 24.9%
Z-contact: 82.7%
Hard: 36%
GB: 26%
Statcast: .402 xwOBA, 8.9%, 112.2 MPH (112.4 MPH was his max last year)
Notes: Conforto has started off on fire. The major change in his approach right now appears to be more elevation. He’s riding a .370 BABIP, which he won’t maintain (it’s driven by 28% LD) and the batting average will fall, but the power is legit and we could see 40+ HR with the juiced ball and change in approach.
Miguel Cabrera
.254/.353/4/0/3/0
O-swing: 30.7%
Z-contact: 82.7%
Hard: 53.7%
GB: 51.2%
Statcast: .384 xwOBA (.297 wOBA), 7.4%, 111.2 MPH
Notes: Don’t trust the numbers in Miggy’s case. Over the last three years he has a .321 xwOBA despite a .377 xwOBA. Miggy hits too many GBs, can’t pull fly balls, and barring an incredible turnaround the power is done.
Jose Peraza
.154/.170/5/1/1/1
O-swing: 51.8%
Z-contact: 92.1%
Hard: 23.7%
GB: 34.2%
Statcast: .210 xwOBA, 0%, 103.9 MPH
Notes: Peraza has been terrible and the skills show why. He’s chasing a very high number of pitches, limiting his OBP, which was entirely reliant on his AVG anyway. His overall contact rate is down 7% and he’s not showing the power he flashed in the second half, though expected metrics pointed to it being a bit of a fluke. The good news: One less thing in the way of Nick Senzel’s call up.
AJ Pollock
.239/.291/9/1/11/0
O-swing: 27.9%
Z-contact: 92.9%
Hard: 36.1%
GB: 49.2%
Statcast: .313 xwOBA (.270 xBA vs. .239), 1.3%, 107 MPH
Notes: Pollock hit a 3-R HR today. He looks like a good buy low, if that’s even possible at this point in the season. The contact rate is up, and the plate discipline is better. The only negatives are the hard hit rate being down (still league average) and the GB% up, but I think those will improve and slightly higher GB% isn’t terrible from an AVG perspective with Pollock. Only slight concern so far of attempting 1 SB.
Chad Pinder
.298/.317/10/3/8/0
O-swing: 33.1%
Z-contact: 85.5%
Hard: 34%
GB: 44%
Statcast: .308 xwOBA, 5.3%, 108.5
Notes: For all the preseason and early season hype, Pinder looks like a worse hitter almost across the board this year. The positive is the improved contact rate, which isn’t nothing, but his calling card — batted ball quality — has yet to make an appearance this year.
Robinson Cano
.192/.253/6/2/8/0
O-swing: 35.3%
Z-contact: 83.7%
Hard: 43.6%
GB: 33.3%
Statcast: .337 xwOBA (.256 wOBA), 6.7%, 110.4 MPH
Notes: Everything looks fine for Cano, minus the major dip in contact rate from better than league average to right around league average. That said, he’s been very unlucky so far this year and he looks like a good buy low option.
Freddy Galvis
.338/.356/10/5/11/1
O-swing: 36.3%
Z-contact: 82.9%
Hard: 34.5%
GB: 37%
Statcast: .339 xwOBA (.411 wOBA), 10, 105.4 MPH
Notes: It’s amazing how quickly a breakout campaign can fizzle. Galvis’ skills are down across the board, with the exception of his statcast data, which still points to a lot of luck with his wOBA vs. xwOBA split.
Franmil Reyes
.224/.298/5/4/8/0
O-swing: 33.3%
Z-contact: 82.1%
Hard: 53.7%
GB: 34.1%
Statcast: .482 xwOBA (.336 wOBA), 15.8%, 115 MPH
Notes: Reyes has improved his contact rate, hard hit rate and ground ball rate this year and the Statcast data is mouthwatering. He’s been incredibly unlucky this year and would be a prime “buy low” candidate if he’s been dropped or his value is diminished at all in the minds of his owners.
Nick Markakis
.317/.382/13/2/13/0
O-swing: 28.4%
Z-contact: 87.1%
Hard: 44%
GB: 52%
Statcast: .408 xwOBA, 3.2%, 108.8 MPH
Notes: Markakis has taken some steps back in his approach – plate discpline and contact down – and the type of batted ball isn’t great, with a dramatic increase in GB%. The Statcast data is OK, not great quality of contact, but he continues to be an asset batting behind a great top of the lineup in Atlanta and helping folks with batting average.
Eric Hosmer
.194/.270/7/1/8/0
O-swing: 32.3%
Z-contact: 84.9%
Hard: 45.1%
GB: 49%
Statcast: .314 xwOBA (.244 wOBA), 4.1%, 108.4 MPH
Notes: Everything looks fine, if not better, for Hosmer than last year. His contact rate is about the same, which is a little disappointing given the drop last year. But his GB% is at a career low 49%, his hard hit rate is at a career high as well. The quality of contact isn’t there, but he’s been very unlucky and should rebound.
Jorge Polanco
.429/.484/11/3/5/0
O-swing: 29.7%
Z-contact: 85.9%
Hard: 44.7%
GB: 17.8%
Statcast: .444 xwOBA (.511 wOBA), 10%, 108.1 MPH
Notes: Polanco is just straight crushing. His plate discipline and contact rates have gone down a bit, but they’re still strong and he seems to be exchanging some contact for quality of contact with a surging hard hit rate and great barrel rate. He’s not this good, but he is good.
Elvis Andrus
.386/.411/9/3/13/4
O-swing: 36.3%
Z-contact: 81.9%
Hard: 49.1%
GB: 43.6%
Statcast: .358 xwOBA (.431 wOBA), 2, 2.9%, 110.2 MPH
Notes: Despite the strong start, a big warning sign for Andrus with the big drop in contact rate (10% & 8%) propped up by outperforming the underlying skills. He’s still been good, but that .462 BABIP isn’t hanging around long.
Jose Altuve
.310/.359/12/7/13/1
O-swing: 25.7%
Z-contact: 88%
Hard: 45.6%
GB: 43.6%
Statcast: .384 xwOBA, 10.8%, 109.1 MPH
Notes: Altuve has been more selective this year and given up a bit of contact for power with a surge in hard hit rate and barrel rate fueling his hot early start. The ground ball rate is also down a bit. Mostly good signs for Altuve. He’s one of those guys that benefits most from the juiced ball.
Eduardo Rodriguez
vFA: 92.99 (-1 MPH)
O-swing: 29.2%
F-strike: 59.4%
Zone: 40.4%
Z-contact: 79.2%
SwStr: 12.7%
CSW: 29.8% #23
K-BB: 13%
xwOBA: .315 xwOBA (.380 wOBA)
Notes: Rodriguez has made some improvements this year, with his K% skills all looking better despite the low early K%. He’s struggling with control, though, posting below league average metrics across the board, but xwOBA supports the fact he’s been terribly unlucky as you can see with the big difference between his wOBA and xwOBA. Stay the course.
Nick Pivetta
vFA: 94.68 (- 1 MPH)
O-swing: 26%
F-strike: 60.2%
Zone: 48.7%
Z-contact: 88.3%
SwStr: 8.5%
CSW: 22.9% #131 of #138
K-BB: 8.6%
xwOBA: .454 xwOBA (.458 wOBA)
Notes: Everything went wrong for Pivetta early this season as his metrics were down sharply across the board. His curveball and slider weren’t working and he had a BABIP on all of his pitches of higher than .400. Wow.
Caleb Smith
vFA: 92.84 MPH (-.5 MPH)
O-swing: 30.4%
F-strike: 53.9%
Zone: 41.9%
Z-contact: 75.3%
SwStr: 14.3%
CSW: 28.7% #41
K-BB: 23.1%
xwOBA: .265 xwOBA
Notes: Smith has really turned on the strikeout skills with improvements in his fourseam fastsball SwStr% and two nice supporting pitches. He’s also throwing his slider more, which is his best pitch. There are some warning signs in the control metrics, with a very low f-strike and zone % and not the o-swing to compensate, so he’s definitely susceptible to some bad outings. He’s been helped so far with the .192 BABIP.
Yusei Kikuchi
vFA: 93.8 MPH
O-swing: 24.6%
F-strike: 58%
Zone: 50.2%
Z-contact: 88.1%
SwStr: 8.6%
CSW: 23.5% #127
K-BB: 12.5%
BABIP: .247
LOB%: 58.3%
xwOBA: .315 xwOBA
Notes: The outcomes for Kikuchi haven’t been bad yet, but the underlying skills paint a bleak picture. Across the board his skills are well below average, with the exception of pumping it in the zone at a 50% clip. This is not a great way to thrive in MLB. Trade him while you can.
Tyler Glasnow
vFA: 97.17 (even)
O-swing: 32.1%
F-strike: 67%
Zone: 50.2%
Z-contact: 87.9%
SwStr: 12.1%
CSW: 28.1% #54
K-BB: 23.1%
BABIP: .270
LOB%: 91.8%
xwOBA: .235 xwOBA
Notes: Glasnow’s control metrics, always his challenge, have become a strength this year. He’s getting ahead of hitters at a very high clip, getting more swings outside the zone, and pumping pitches in the zone. His K% metrics aren’t elite right now, but that’s fine. Limiting the walks helps limit his trademark huge innings.
Collin McHugh
vFA: 90.7 MPH
O-swing: 30.1%
F-strike: 58.1%
Zone: 45.9%
Z-contact: 83.8%
SwStr: 12.0%
CSW: 29.4% #27
K-BB: 23.3%
BABIP: .216
LOB%: 79.6%
xwOBA: .224 xwOBA
Notes: McHugh is pitching off his slider, as it’s his most used pitch at 42%. Despite the high usage, it’s still rocking a 20.8% SwStr and he’s able to keep it in the zone, which is key (43% zone). It also generates 60% ground balls. The control metrics aren’t terrific and he’s outperforming where his K% should be, but for where you drafted him you have to be very happy.
Touki Toussaint
vFA: 92.76 (- 2 MPH)
O-swing: 29.1%
F-strike: 60.9%
Zone: 38.2%
Z-contact: 84.6%
SwStr: 10.1%
CSW: 30.3%
K-BB: 11%
BABIP: .259
LOB%: 72.4%
xwOBA: .302
Notes: I used Toussaint’s 2018 & 2019 numbers to get a larger sample. Some things to like, some things to be concerned about, but you can see where the intrigue comes from with the high CSW. Velo could be a big issue if it doesn’t rebound.
Jacob deGrom
vFA: 96.83 (even)
O-swing: 31.8%
F-strike: 65.2%
Zone: 46.7%
Z-contact: 78.3%
SwStr: 14.8%
CSW: 29.9% #22
K-BB: 31.5%
BABIP: .364
LOB%: 90.5%
xwOBA: .298 xwOBA
Notes: The skills still look great so far for deGrom, he’s just had a batted ball quality issue. He’s already given up 5 HR after giving up a total of 10 all of last year. It’ll be interesting to monitor, since he did give up a ton of HR in the last juiced ball year (28 in 2017), but he has been unlucky. The skills should give fantasy owners some confidence.
Matt Boyd
vFA: 91.1 MPH (even)
O-swing: 31.4%
F-strike: 59%
Zone: 41.8%
Z-contact: 78%
SwStr: 16.1%
CSW: 30.7% #14
K-BB: 29%
BABIP: .345
LOB%: 71.4%
xwOBA: .272 xwOBA
Notes: Boyd has bumped up his slider usage this season and it’s paying dividends (37% of all pitches). His curveball has also been a good pitch for him this year, which would be a key development, since it hasn’t been a strikeout pitch for him previously.
Yonny Chirinos
vFA: 95.2 (-1 MPH)
O-swing: 34.4%
F-strike: 72.9%
Zone: 43.6%
Z-contact: 86.9%
SwStr: 11.7%
CSW: 26.4% (#95)
K-BB: 21.4%
BABIP: .222
LOB%: 68.2%
xwOBA: .294
Notes: Chirinos has benefited from some good luck so far this year (.239 wOBA) and his primary gains have been in his control, where he’s getting ahead of hitters and getting them to swing at pitches outside the zone. I’d call him a solid, not spectacular option.
Andrew Miller
vFA: 93.72 MPH (even)
O-swing: 31.8%
F-strike: 57.1%
Zone: 40.1%
Z-contact: 90.9%
SwStr: 10.2%
CSW: 29.9%
K-BB: 8.6%
BABIP: .353
LOB%: 76.3%
xwOBA: .435
Notes: Struggling with control, but the strikeout skills are starting to rebound a bit.
Steven Matz
vFA: 93.2 (-1 MPH)
O-swing: 27.2%
F-strike: 60.3%
Zone: 47.7%
Z-contact: 86.2%
SwStr: 8.7%
CSW: 28.4% #51
K-BB: 17.8%
BABIP: .279
LOB%: 57.5%
xwOBA: .353
Notes: Matz’ control metrics have improved, while the strikeout skills have declined slightly. The CSW is encouraging and Matz’ is usually one of the league leaders in called strikes. His LOB% has been unlucky and we should expect some regression, at the same time the .353 xwOBA paints a not so great picture.
Trevor Richards
vFA: 91.05 MPH
O-swing: 30.2%
F-strike: 57.7%
Zone: 39.3%
Z-contact: 78.1%
SwStr: 12.1%
CSW: 27% #81
K-BB: 7.2%
BABIP: .220
LOB%: 73.4%
xwOBA: .320
Notes: Richards has some major control issues, which make him a very risk pitcher. The strikeout skills have improved, but there are some huge red flags in the profile. He throws a low percentage of pitches in the zone, doesn’t get ahead of hitters, and doesn’t get folks to chase out of the zone. He’s almost entirely reliant on his changeup, which he can’t throw in the zone (33.3%). The result is he gets very few called strikes, because his other pitches aren’t fooling anyone. He’s been propped up so far by a .220 BABIP, but that won’t last. He’s a dangerous guy to own.
Carlos Carrasco
vFA: 93.78 (-.5 MPH)
O-swing: 32.5%
F-strike: 62.5%
Zone: 47.1%
Z-contact: 79.8%
SwStr: 13.4%
CSW: 28.5% #49
K-BB: 30%
BABIP: .524
LOB%: 63.4%
xwOBA: .347 (.429 wOBA)
Notes: Carrasco has been hit hard to start the season, but everything looks like business as usual. His velocity is down, but only slightly, and after the gem he twirled last outing, his skills have started to rebound and still look elite. He’s clearly been unlucky with a .524 BABIP and while he hasn’t been good, the wOBA – xwOBA shows he hasn’t been as bad. Expect about the same guy as last year.
Luis Castillo
vFA: 95.7 MPH (-.5)
O-swing: 30.7%
F-strike: 54.2%
Zone: 35.8%
Z-contact: 77.8%
SwStr: 16.1%
CSW: 34% #2
K-BB: 19.8%
BABIP: .184
LOB%: 83.3%
xwOBA: .220
Notes: Castillo has started off really well, but there are still some signs of concern in the profile. He’s throwing a very low percentage of pitches in the zone, not getting folks to chase and not getting ahead of batters. He’s walked 13.5% of hitters so far this year, but is thriving off a .184 BABIP and 83.3% LOB, both of which will regress. The question is whether it looks like Castillo 2H or Castillo 1H of last season.
Trevor Williams
vFA: 92.17 (+ .4)
O-swing: 37.7%
F-strike: 70.7%
Zone: 44.4%
Z-contact: 84.2%
SwStr: 10.6%
CSW: 23.5% #136
K-BB: 12.1%
BABIP: .250
LOB%: 79.4%
xwOBA: .315
Notes: Williams is trying to give Kyle Hendricks a run for his money as a guy who get by through limiting quality of contact. This year he’s actually taken some strides forward with improved control and better strikeout skills, though they still aren’t good. The main improvement seems to be in his fourseam, which has a 13.9% SwStr, up nearly 7 percent from last year.
James Paxton
vFA: 96
O-swing: 28.4%
F-strike: 65.3%
Zone: 50.8%
Z-contact: 79.5%
SwStr: 14.8%
CSW: 28% #57
K-BB: 25.3%
BABIP: .358
LOB%: 73.6%
xwOBA: .278
Notes: Paxton looks like the same guy that came over from Mariners. He’s been unlucky so far .325 wOBA and everything looks solid. The strikeout skills are actually better so far this year than previously, but only slightly.
Walker Buehler
vFA: 96.96 (same)
O-swing: 21.8%
F-strike: 52.9%
Zone: 44.4%
Z-contact: 80.2%
SwStr: 10.6%
CSW: 28% #60
K-BB: 14.5%
BABIP: .294
LOB%: 50.9%
xwOBA: .296
Notes: Buehler is struggling with his control so far, particularly with his slider and curve, which he can’t throw in the zone. The slider has still been an effective pitch, but the curve and fourseam have not. Buehler got a late start in spring training, and a lot of other SP who started late have struggled, too. Give him time.
Joe Musgrove
vFA: 91.34 (- 3 MPH)
O-swing: 35.6%
F-strike: 64.6%
Zone: 42.7%
Z-contact: 87.5%
SwStr: 13.3%
CSW: 30.4% #16
K-BB: 20.7%
BABIP: .232
LOB%: 77.8%
xwOBA: .264
Notes: Musgrove’s taken a somewhat bizarre road to a great start. His velocity is down nearly 3 MPH over last year. He’s done it by increasing his slider usage to 30% (his best pitch), keeping hitters off balance with a deep repertoire, and some luck with the BABIP. He’s also throwing the ball less in the zone, which might be a good thing. He’s been too in the zone in the past and he now seems to be nibbling and not giving in to hitters. Should be fun to watch.
Yu Darvish
vFA: 93.15 (-1.5 MPH), though back at 94.2 MPH in his last start
O-swing: 30.1%
F-strike: 51.8%
Zone: 42.6%
Z-contact: 86.2%
SwStr: 11.5%
CSW: 26.3% #99
K-BB: 3.6%
BABIP: .273
LOB%: 73%
xwOBA: .357
Notes: Darvish has gotten off to a rocky start this year, too, but has looked better in each successive start, though his last was against the Marlins. His control metrics haven’t been great in any start, but the strikeouts have been improving. He’s another guy who didn’t get his usual spring training program and his performance looks to be suffering.
Reynaldo Lopez
vFA: 94.24 (-2 MPH) 95.5 in his last start
O-swing: 21.2%
F-strike: 57.7%
Zone: 45.4%
Z-contact: 89.9%
SwStr: 8.5%
CSW: 24.4% #123
BABIP:
LOB:
K-BB: 3.1%
xwOBA: .395 (.454 wOBA)
Notes: Lopez has really struggled, primarily because of his fastball velocity, which is usually among the best in the league but has been down nearly 2 MPH. The good news is that he threw 95.5 MPH in his last start and his first few were in very cold weather. He is so reliant on velocity that if it stays below 95-96 he’ll be borderline unstartable. If it gets back up, there’s hope for the breakout some of us have been expecting.
Jack Flaherty
vFA: 94.72 (+1 MPH) 96 in his last start.
O-swing: 30.7%
F-strike: 62.2%
Zone: 43.2%
Z-contact: 82.2%
SwStr: 12.7%
CSW: 28.3% #52
BABIP: .412
LOB: 82%
K-BB: 21.9%
xwOBA: .320 (.385)
Notes: It sounds weird, but Flaherty’s been the pitcher we’ve wanted so far in 2019. Not in terms of outcomes, but the control metrics that weren’t so great in his first MLB season are looking much better so far and his velocity is also up. The strikeout metrics are slightly down, but there’s plenty of time for them to improve as well. He represents a perfect “buy low” candidate, since the only thing he’s struggling with is BABIP.