Last week at First Pitch Arizona (a terrific event I can’t recommend enough), I participated in my first 2020 draft. While it’s very early to be drafting for 2020, this league counts and the competition is fierce with a number of talented fantasy baseball writers and players at the table.
The league is a 15-team, 50-player 5×5 roto draft-and-hold league through NFBC (Draft Champions). The first 23 rounds took place at First Pitch Arizona with rosters filled out via an email draft starting in January.
Draft-and-holds aren’t my favorite format, since I think FAAB (aka The Grind) is one of my strengths, but I took it as an opportunity to test out my current thinking for draft strategy in 2020. That strategy includes two aces (generally speaking, two aces in the first two or three rounds), two high-end catchers, waiting on closers, and spreading the risk on stolen bases.
I’ll get in to the reasons for that strategy soon (I’ve touched on it in my podcast), but the challenge with implementing this particular strategy in a draft and hold is the closer part. Because there is no FAAB in draft-and-hold leagues, you almost have to push closers up higher than you usually would. Otherwise you’re hoping for some luck with a handcuff getting the job or just falling into a few saves here and there from high leverage relievers. Accordingly, I had to be slightly more aggressive than I wanted with closers.
Enough with the caveats and qualifications–here is my draft with a short snippet for my rationale behind each pick.
1.14 Max Scherzer
I was hoping to get Justin Verlander in this spot, but I’m happy with Max Scherzer. Barring unforeseen circumstances, I’ll likely be selecting a starting pitcher in the first round, even if I grab one of the first three picks (Gerrit Cole). Mad Max is my fourth starting pitcher (before deep diving), after Cole, deGrom and Verlander.
Mad Max’s skills are still elite, as he actually posted a higher K-BB% in 2019 (30.3%) than 2018 (28.7%) and a sub-3.00 ERA despite a BABIP (.321) 31 point higher than his career average and his highest since 2012. It’ll be worth monitoring how the Nats handle him after a deep postseason run, but everything looks business as usual with Scherzer.
2.17 Walker Buehler
I’m still not entirely sold on Buehler, but drafting close to the turn I doubted any of the other aces I wanted would make it back (Clevinger, Bieber). Buehler doesn’t have the same quality of skills as some of the guys behind him (i.e. 12.1% SwStr, 24.2% K-BB compared to Bieber at 14% and 25.5%), but the Dodgers are an ideal situation for pitchers and Buehler is pretty clearly the ace on the staff (sorry, Kershaw fans). He should get plenty of rest this offseason and a normal Spring Training, which means he’ll hopefully avoid a slow start like 2019.
3.44 Ozzie Albies
I love Albies heading into this season. Still just 22, he has two seasons under his belt of 24 HR and ~15 SB with 100+ runs and solid RBI. Because of his elite contact skills, the floor on the average seems high.
Albies has also shown solid growth in some key metrics over his last 80 games, lowering his ground ball rate and improving both his hard hit rate and plate discipline (see below). Not picture–increases in both his barrel rate and xwOBA over the same period of time. Albies should get a full season batting second behind Ronald Acuña Jr. and in front of Freddie Freeman. At a late third or early fourth round price, I’m in on this five-category contributor.
4.47 Tommy Pham
The pick felt a little early, but I wasn’t thrilled with the other options and had a need for balanced speed given my two early starting pitchers. Pham has averaged 22 HR and 22 SB over the past three year. He’s a year older and injuries always feel like a concern, but he’s also averaged nearly 600 PA over the same three-year period. A couple other things that stand out–he increased his contact rate 4% last year and somehow managed to only score 77 runs with a .369 OBP in 654 plate appearances. I’m not sure how that’s possible–it’s terrible luck. I’ve talked myself into liking this pick, despite grabbing him a bit early than necessary.
Tommy Pham’s Runs
2018: 102 runs in 570 PA of a .367 OBP (17.9% R/PA)
2019: 77 runs in 654 PA of a .369 OBP (11.8% R/PA)
🤔🤔🤔
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) October 22, 2019
5.74 J.T. Realmuto
I doubted Realmuto a bit heading into this season, but he was solid in 2019 with skills that provide a comfortable floor. With stolen base totals of 8, 12, 8, 3 and 9 over the last five seasons and a solid (and consistent) 28.7 ft/sec spring speed, 2018’s 3 SB look like the outlier. 5-8 SB from the catcher position is huge, particularly with the rest of the profile helping in other categories, particularly when factoring in the production of other catchers. I’ll be targeting Realmuto quite a bit heading into 2020.
6.77 Tim Anderson
This pick also seemed like a reach, but Anderson is another player I covet heading into 2020 based on age, skills and where he’s going in drafts. I don’t expect a repeat of his batting crown (or .399 BABIP), but with improved contact skills (+3.3%) and a hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, the strikeout rate will remain low and I feel comfortable projecting him for a solid .280 batting average with close to 20 HR and 20SB. His terrible plate discipline and fears of regression in fantasy circles may keep his price deflated for 2020.
Note: After beginning the draft with two starting pitchers, I’ve amassed ~65 SB from my hitter picks without a single batter likely projecting at under 20 HR or a worse than a .270 batting average. I’m digging it.
7.104 Jose Abreu
Abreu is just too much value at this spot, which aligns with his early ADP (105). Regardless of where he ends up (I’m betting on a return to Chicago), Abreu should provide a lot of RBI and HR with a very good batting average. Outside of an injury-marred 2018, he’s been incredibly consistent with no apparent erosion in underlying skills. There may be even more power if he can get that GB% close to league average (it was 46% last season).
8.107 Kyle Tucker
Tucker represents my first real risk in the draft. One of my goals in 2020 is to take more risks in drafts on players with high upside, since I’m generally risk-adverse and have missed out on some big player seasons as a result.
Tucker no longer has service time hanging over his head and the hope is that he sees regular at bats for the Astros next season. The batting average is a bit of a concern, but even if he only sees at bats in a strong-side platoon, I feel pretty confident in a 20 HR and 15 SB season with considerable upside. If he is platooned, I can gain some added value by replacing him in my lineup for series where he faces more than one lefty.
9.134 Oscar Mercado
I absolutely love Mercado heading into 2020 and expect him to fly up draft boards as real drafts in March approach. The Cleveland outfielder should see everyday at bats and already has a 15 HR and 15 SB season in less than 500 PA. Not only that, but all of his underlying metrics improved (see below) as the season progressed, which points to some upside in the power.
10.137 Franmil Reyes
The clear weakness in my team so far is power and that’s where the Franimal steps in. The knock has always been his defense. With that out of the way in Cleveland, Reyes should see everday at bats in the middle of a decent lineup facing a lot of AL Central pitching, which should be among the league worst again next season.
In 833 PA across two seasons, Reyes has averaged 38 HR per 600 PA. There may be more power in the bat, if he can continue to lower his GB% (-5.1% from 2018 to 2019, but still above league average at 44.1%).
11.164 Emilio Pagan
I was able to wait a bit for a closer despite the format, as they went off the board relatively late in this draft.
Pagan is the type of closer I’ll be targeting in March drafts–inexpensive but with skills and a great shot at the job. He was lights out this year, with impeccable skills (17.6% SwStr, 34.4% CSW, 31.1% K-BB), two fantastic pitches (FA, SL), a valid reason for his improvement (velo uptick, Rays pitching magic), and what seems like a lock on the closer’s gig on an improving Rays team. Some regression is due on contact (.228 BABIP) and luck (94.8% LOB), but I’m happy with him as my first closer.
12.167 Lorenzo Cain
Many fantasy owners have likely given up on Cain due to his age and the lackluster return from 2019. I owned him in a few places this year and he was certainly a major disappointment. That said, he battled nagging leg and hand injuries throughout the year. He also got very unlucky.
While the outcomes differed greatly between 2018 and 2019 for Cain, the expected metrics show his 2019 batted ball quality was actually better. He had an identical .289 xBA, according to Statcast, but his barrel rate, xSLG and xwOBACON (xwOBA on contact) were all higher in 2019.
Cain’s 18 SB were a disappointment, but that’s largely a fact of his draft price and the SB his owners were counting on him for last year. Drafting Cain after pick 150 and expecting 15 SB is a very different proposition than Cain at pick 60 with an expectation for 30.
The pick is a bit of a risk given my team’s hitting weaknesses (RBI and HR) are also Cain’s, but I feel better about getting power late than speed that doesn’t hurt me too much in power (Cain at least provides double-digit power) and other categories.
After 12 rounds of the draft, I feel pretty good about my team. Two aces, who should provide quality ratios, a decent number of wins and plenty of Ks, anchor my staff. A solid closer, who seems as reliable as any non-established closer, should provide some saves.
My hitting is generally balanced, with every player except Reyes projected for a solid batting average, six players projected for at least 15 SB, not a single player with single-digit power (even with a dejuiced ball) and 6 or 7 projected at or above 20 HR, and a clear mandate for the next part of the draft–HR, RBI, a second closer and depth in starting pitching.
I’ll share how I attacked those needs in the next article covering rounds 13-23.
Aaron says
Is there somewhere to see the full results of the draft? I like albies, but I see him getting drafted before javier baez. Isn’t baez statcast profile way superior? Im I missing something? Thanks.