Over my two years of providing bold predictions (2017, 2018), I can say one thing without a doubt–I’ve improved. The key? More realistic bold predictions, of course!
The following predictions are fairly bold and based on my research over the past few months. More than precise projections you should adhere to, they reflect the players I’m buying and the players I’m selling at their cost.
Not surprisingly, I don’t own any shares of Nick Pivetta, Kris Bryant or Luis Severino. Also, not surprisingly, I own a crap ton (official measurement) of the guys who show up here in a positive light.
But this article is already long, so you don’t need a huge intro. Here they are, my 2019 bold predictions:
Max Kepler is this year’s Matt Carpenter and hits over .250 with 30 HR and 180 RBI and runs.
Last year Kepler made tremendous strides in his plate approach. He improved his walk rate by more than 3%, something supported by an improved chase rate on pitches outside the zone (-4.6%). At the same time, Kepler’s contact skills improved by more than 4% overall and 2% in the zone.
With a combination of borderline elite plate discipline and contact, Kepler has a solid foundation. Where he struggled last year was in the quality of his contact, posting a 25.1% pop up rate, according to xStats.org. Pop ups, as defined by xStats, have a .010 BABIP. That’s right, only 1% of them fall in for hits (think Alex Bregman’s game-winning single against the Padres last year).
The good news is he dropped his ground ball rate 5% to a solid 37.8% and his fly ball rate was at 46.5%. Like Matt Carpenter heading into last year, all he has to do is drop his launch angle down on most of these batted balls and they become dangerous.
Max Kepler is one of my favorite value hitters heading into 2019 because of elite contact & plate discipline. Last 80 games:
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) January 9, 2019
O-swing: 24.6%✅
Z-contact: 92.7%🔥
The last step is lowering his launch angle:
Hard: 36.2%😐
FB: 45.9%✅
Pop Up: 25.1%❌#FantasyBaseball #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/EhPK9bRuvJ
It’s easier said than done, but the Twins are showing confidence in Kepler by installing him in the leadoff spot against righties to start the year. Kepler’s plate discipline is perfect for the role and he’s got plenty of talent and power behind him in the lineup, with Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz and Eddie Rosario following him.
The environment is ideal for a breakout and Kepler appears to be a quick learner, having only played the game of baseball for a limited amount of time compared to his peers (he grew up in Germany). I fully expect Kepler to continue improving his game this year, which should help fantasy owners who drafted him around pick 200.
Jake Bauers becomes the latest Cleveland Indian with limited power projection to hit 25 HR (and also steals 15 bases).
Of all the hitters in baseball, Bauers is the one that showed up on the highest number of my teams (6 out of 8 non-draft and hold redraft leagues). It’s mostly a function of his power/speed skillset, ADP (221), team context, and dual-position eligibility (including first base, where it’s nearly impossible to find speed guys). Wow – that’s a lot of reasons to like him!
Bauers has a mature understanding of the strike zone, posting a very strong 24.4% o-swing (chase rate on pitches outside the zone) over his 388 PA in 2018, while also maintaining it consistently below the league average throughout the season. Over his minor league career, Bauers hasn’t struggled with contact, posting his highest K% of 21.2% at AAA to start 2018 before seeing it rise to 26.8% during his time in the majors.
The contact issues represent Bauers one major weakness, since his batted ball profile was fairly strong in 2018. He had a league average ground ball rate overall, but it trended downward as the year progressed. While he generated a terrible .252 BABIP for the season, it appears to be more a product of bad luck than something we should expect to see again.
How much of Jake Bauers’ poor BABIP on GB was bad luck vs. the shift?
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) October 3, 2018
Bauers
GB BABIP: .134
Pulled GB: 66.0%
PGB BABIP: .063
PGB BABIP vs. shift: .043 (.111 w/o shift)
Shift: 72% of PA
MLB
GB BABIP: .236
PGB: 55.1%
PGB BABIP: .186
PGB BABIP vs. shifts: .159#FantasyBaseball
Bauers hit the ball hard in the air, pulled the ball in the air, and hit the ball hard in the air to the pull side. This sounds similar to the approach leveraged by Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor to maximize their power as prospects who came up as better hitters than sluggers.
Doing 1B preview w/@PatrickFWO has reinvigorated my Jake Bauers❤️ (ADP: 257), particularly HR potential.
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) January 7, 2019
HHFB: 48.8% (37.5% MLB)✅
HHPFB: 35.9% (32.6%)✅
LHB HR Park Factor: CLE (106 – 16/60), TB (98 – 34/60)✅
Spray chart @ CLE 😉
Steamer: .245/75/19/73/16#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/Wi1ErOTfIG
Bauers is also scheduled to bat in the middle of the lineup* for Cleveland, behind Lindor, Ramirez and Carlos Santana, providing plenty of opportunity to drive in runs. With the back half of the Indians lineup pretty weak, he should also get the green light on the basepaths playing for the team with the most stolen bases in 2018.
I expect Bauers to improve his contact rate this season and benefit from improved pull side power field and weaker AL Central pitching to take the next step in his development.
*Roster Resource currently has Bauers scheduled to bat second in the lineup with Lindor out of action.
Joe Musgrove (currently SP47) finishes as a top 20 starting pitcher.
Musgrove is my favorite starting pitching target in 2019 based on a combination of elite control (low BB%) and a deep repertoire with a couple knockout pitches.
Joe Musgrove has increased his slider usage of late w. good results. The pitch is 🔥
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) August 23, 2018
Last 3 games:
O-swing: 42.3% (35.7% season)
SwStr: 13.2% (10.3%)
F-strike: 77.2% (67.9%)
Slider is 🥊 in 2018:
O-swing: 47.3% (37.3% 2017)
SwStr: 16.9% (13.0%)#FantasyBaseball #Pirates pic.twitter.com/feuprqceXg
Innings and a willingness to pitch a little more outside the zone appear to be the only stumbling blocks between him and elite production.
Yasiel Puig hits 35 home runs and 20 stolen bases.
My love for Puig runs deep, but this bold prediction boils down to two things–health and playing time.
Puig’s 2018 was overshadowed by two stints on the DL and platooning down the stretch, but he still managed to hit 23 HR and steal 15 bases in only 444 plate appearances. Prorate those numbers over 650 plate appearances and you get 33 HR and 22 SB. Add a strong Reds line up, every day playing time, and ideal ballpark for home games to the equation and I think he hits these marks if he gets over 600 plate appearances.
Puig also did this with a league average ground ball rate, so the power could be special if he continues to make inroads there and increase his fly ball rate. Puig will then enter free agency an absolute superstar (and hopefully re-sign with the Reds, prolonging this fantasy baseball match made in heaven).
Nick Pivetta (SP36 in drafts) finishes the season outside the Phillies rotation and the top 75 starting pitchers.
There isn’t too much bold about this prediction when you think about it. This is essentially what Pivetta did in 2018…
But fantasy owners’ love his peripherals and believe Pivetta’s luck was cursed. It’s certainly possible, but Pivetta now has two years of well above average BABIPs and HR/FB coupled with bad splits the second and third time through the order.
His fastball gets absolutely crushed and, while his secondary offerings are OK, he lacks the type of knockout pitch fellow terrible-fastball-thrower Shane Bieber has with his slider (otherwise Bieber would be in this prediction, too–I like him slightly more).
Bold prediction #5: Nick Pivetta (SP36) finishes outside Phillies rotation & the top 75 SP.
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) March 26, 2019
Pivetta’s fastball (career):
Pitches: 3,086
wRC+: 143
wOBA: .383
BABIP: .357
Times through the order penalty:
1. ERA: 4.27 WHIP: 1.34 K: 29.5%
2. 6.12, 1.46, 24.5%
3. 5.80, 1.37, 20.2%
There is no doubt that Pivetta has a lot of talent, but nobody’s ever questioned the talent of Jon Gray and all he’s done is destroy fantasy teams for years with a terrible fastball and tantalizing slider. Only Gray has a fairly dominant pitch, something Pivetta lacks.
Xander Bogaerts hits 30 HR and leads the American League in RBI, finishing as a top 15 fantasy baseball performer.
Bogaerts saw his skills take important steps forward last year with improved plate discipline, hard hit rates, and fly ball rates joining his already strong contact skills. The combination of those skills, along with the likelihood of batting cleanup or fifth in a potent Red Sox lineup should give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.
Reasons I ❤️ Xander Bogaerts in 2019:
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) December 19, 2018
⚾️ Strong & consistent contact
⚾️ Improved plate discipline
⚾️ Growth in contact quality metrics (barrels, HHFB, hard drives, etc.) coupled w/ 📉trend in GB%
⚾️ 36/43 SB (83.7%) last 3 years
⚾️ #RedSox cleanup hitter #FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/ayMGkAkuTx
With five seasons already under his belt, Bogaerts has the opportunity to take a huge leap forward if he just maintains last year’s skills and stays healthy for a full season (no small task). If he continues his development, we could be looking at an absolute monster entering his prime with strong skills for batting average, power, and double digit speed.
Matt Harvey (currently outside the top 100 SP) resurrects his career with the Angels (and as a fantasy contributor) providing top 40 SP production.
At 24.347 drafted Matt Harvey, who I own on virtually every team. Threw fewer fastballs down the stretch and his CU improved.
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) March 3, 2019
Last 5 / last 10:
SwStr: 14.3% / 11.1%
Z-contact: 80.1% / 84.4%
O-swing: 36.5% / 30.4%
F-strike: 67.8% / 66.8%
FA: 54% (59% 2018)#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/E907hcoFho
Harvey has struggled since Thorasic Outlet surgery, but looked to regain some of his former powers toward the end of last season. Over his last 10 games his overall swinging strike rate surged and, almost as important, his curveball rounded into form with swinging strike rates above 15% and 20% in August and September.
In addition to the strikeout skills, his first-pitch strike rate increased dramatically and he got hitters to swing at more pitches outside the zone. His slider is still a good pitch, so if his curveball can hold some of its gains, it should help his fastball be a little more effective.
I also like the situation with the Angels who have moved more and more toward the side of analytics, hiring a number of staff from Driveline this offseason. Harvey doesn’t have the same velocity he once had, but he still averages 94 on his fastball and the breaking pitches could help it play up.
Hunter Dozier finishes as the team leader in HR (25+) and RBI (80+) with the Royals.
I’m surprised Dozier hasn’t gotten more love this offseason. He has a firm grasp on everyday at bats in the relative middle of the Royals lineup, plays in the pitching-starved AL Central, and the cost is minimal–he’s only been drafted in about half of the Main Events (450 picks).
Hunter Dozier is an intriguing late pick (526 ADP). Very good batted ball quality & 📈 skills, w/ 3B job all his in KC.
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) January 11, 2019
Z-contact: 92.2% last 40 / 88.7% 2018 ✅
Hard: 47.8% / 44.9% ✅
FB: 33.9% / 36.6% (GB: 40%) ↔️
Barrels/PA: 7.0% ✅
Hard Drive: 16.5% ✅#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/4xFdSN0uig
He has elite contact skills, very good barrel rates, and continues to make progress on hitting fewer ground balls, a trend he continued this spring. The one missing ingredient is plate discipline, as he makes a ton of contact in the zone but very little outside of it. With that small improvement, we could get a nice combination of reducing his strikeout rate while increasing his volume of quality contact.
The result may not be spectacular, but where he’s going in drafts it doesn’t need to be. It should put him in the heart of a banged-up Royals offense with an opportunity to drive in Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield, and whoever else is in the Royals lineup this year. I think he’s better than Soler and better than O’Hearn, and that will help him push up into the order and into more value.
Adalberto Mondesi finishes the year with an O-swing under 33%, a walk rate above 6% and goes 25/50.
The narrative on Adalberto Mondesi is he swings at everything and can’t make contact. While he’s certainly worse than league average in his plate discipline, Mondesi has already shown steady improvement in that department. Would you believe me if I told you he had better plate discipline than Jose Abreu? Scooter Gennett? Only slightly worse than Starling Marte?
Adalberto Mondesi‘ plate discipline trends:
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) January 28, 2019
O-swing: 📉 to 35.3% (last 40)
Z-swing: 📈 to 72.7%
Z-contact: 📉 to 79.5%
K: 📉 to 25.0%
BB: 📈 to 5.4%
Mondesi’s become more selective, but more aggressive in the zone. Swing% (also 📉 to 52%) limits K%. Batted ball quality🚀 pic.twitter.com/0ZsggGMI8s
That isn’t to say his plate discipline is good, just that you don’t necessarily need great plate discipline to be successful. His contact skills have also been questioned, and while they’re not terrific, they aren’t terrible. Would you believe me that his in-zone contact rate was better than Justin Upton? Cody Bellinger? David Dahl?
In OBP leagues there’s no doubt Mondesi takes a hit, but in batting average leagues Mondesi’s aggressiveness is a huge benefit because it mitigates the impact of his below average contact skills on his strikeout rate, a phenomenon that’s helped other hyper-aggressive hitters like Javier Baez, Corey Dickerson and Avisail Garcia (it’s why folks who use swinging strike rate to dismiss him are missing the point) maintain lower than expected strikeout rates.
More good news: While Mondesi’s gotten better at not chasing pitches outside the zone, he’s gotten more aggressive at swinging at pitches inside the zone. This will limit his walk rate (hence the bold prediction being 6%), but will also help with his strikeout rate.
Adalberto Mondesi had a higher barrel/PA and FB distance (19-39 launch angles) than Bryce Harper, Juan Soto and Freddie Freeman. pic.twitter.com/lLwenqRdrd
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) January 31, 2019
The fun with Mondesi starts with his batted ball quality, which was terrific in 2018. His barrel rate was higher than Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, and a host of other sluggers. It wasn’t luck either: xHR metrics (14.0 xHR) support the power, as do other power metrics like barrels/PA (7.2%), average fly ball distance (334 ft), and hard hit fly ball rate (43.7%). They’re all well above average.
Nobody questions the speed, just the sustainability of his stolen base opportunity rate, which was exceptionally high. I expect regression, but I see very few instances outside of injury where Mondesi fails to get 600 plate appearances this season. He’s a strong defender at SS, the Royals aren’t competing, and they let Alcides Escobar play 162 games as the worst hitter in baseball for years on end.
If he stays healthy, he’ll get more than 600 plate appearances, and he’ll get to 50 stolen bases and 25 home runs.
Adam Frazier (currently 2B 25) finishes the season as a top 10 second baseman.
Frazier came back with a vengeance last year after his demotion to AAA. He appeared to be a new hitter after returning to the majors on July 25–his hard hit rate surged like whoa, he maintained his strong plate discipline and contact skills, and he started to elevate the ball a little more.
Adam Frazier is another value hitter I ❤️ heading into 2019. He showed some pop after coming back from the minors (55 games).
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) January 9, 2019
PA: 196
AVG: .306
R: 29
RBI: 27
HR: 7
SB: 1
And skills:
O-swing: 28.1%
Z-contact: 91.9%
Hard: 45.3%
FB: 34.0%
Leadoff hitter.#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/Z2lKoJ3weG
Now he finds himself as the everyday second baseman for the Pirates and most likely batting leadoff, at least against righties. Frazier’s contact skills make the batting average floor very high and the ceiling is above .300. The batting average, runs from the leadoff spot, increased power and moderate speed should help him finish the season as one of the best bargains among middle infielders this year.
Kris Bryant finishes outside the top 10 3B.
I’ve been down on Bryant for a while, as the underlying numbers don’t support him being the same player he was during his 2016 MVP season. Nothing in his profile stands out, especially in the batted ball quality department.
Bryant’s hard hit rates are well below league average, his barrel rates have declined for two consecutive years, and he hasn’t stolen double digit bases since his rookie season. I warned folks before last season:
For those of you debating Bryant vs. Machado in the late first, early second round, I'm firmly in the Machado camp (though, technically, I'd rather have Jose Ramirez). FYI – Bryant's ADP has changed since I first posted this (now 15).#FantasyBaseball #Cubs #Orioles pic.twitter.com/Q7uBJFEube
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) March 21, 2018
Slightly better than league average batting average and power metrics are nothing special at third base, which is deep in top-level talent. The end result will be Bryant outside the top 10 third basemen.
Luis Severino struggles upon his return from injury, and finishes 2019 with an ERA north of 3.75.
Before his injury this spring, Severino was going to be a bigger part of my bold predictions. I don’t think Severino is bad, necessarily, just not worthy of the ace status he’s given.
Luis Severino is one of a few pitchers I won't own in 2019 given ADP. Skills are solid, subpar for an ace:
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) February 16, 2019
SwStr: 12.3% last 10 / 12.4% 2018
Z-contact: 82.9% / 82.5%
Control metrics 📉
O-swing: 30.6% / 32.7%
F-strike: 64.8% / 69.0%
Zone: 44.1% / 47.4%#FantasyBaseball (1/3) pic.twitter.com/aYd6FiG2pv
Last year he struggled mightily beginning in July and was never able to fully right the ship. In fact, during the last week of the 2018 season I sat him on my bench in favor of Cody Reed. It worked out for me.
His supporters will point to his pitch tipping–something discovered in the playoffs–but I don’t buy it. Was he tipping pitches all the way back in July when he had a 6.58 ERA and couldn’t get anyone out? Did the Yankees totally miss his pitch tipping for 3+ months?
His BABIP & HR/FB in 2H were bad, but it was regression after a lucky 1H. Expected metrics support the full year outcomes.
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) February 16, 2019
BABIP: .314 / xBABIP: .321
HR: 19 / xHR: 21.1
wOBA: .290 / xOBA: .300
Barrels/PA: 5.0% (205 of 310)
Barrels/BBE: 7.7% (226 of 310)#FantasyBaseball (3/3)
While he had a high BABIP and HR/FB during his struggles, xStats.org indicates he was still a little lucky over the course of the full season. The injury was a bummer because it pushed other (in my mind, better) pitchers up the draft board, including one of my favorites, Trevor Bauer.
If I’m honest, this bold prediction feels a little weak given his injury
(hence, why I’ve buried it at the end), but I kept it in here since I’ve been very clear all winter and spring that I was off Severino.