The player skill profiles and notes below were used for the April 23 podcast, which looked at the early season performance of seven hitters and six pitchers. The skill profiles will be slightly out of date, since the stats were pulled on April 22 and April 23. As with all early season analysis, small sample size caveats apply.
Episode 74: Week 4 Hitter and Pitcher Observations
Howie Kendrick
.407/.486/9/3/8/0
O-swing: 22.1%
Z-contact: 93.8%
Hard: 47.8%
GB: 34.8%
Statcast: .568 xwOBA, 6, 17.1%, 111.4 MPH
Notes: Kendrick has been one of the hottest hitters this season and the skills support what he’s doing. He won’t continue at this torrid pace, but thus far he’s coupling very strong plate discipline with his already strong contact skills, which are elite so far this year. He’s also one of the league leaders in barrels. It’s unlikely to continue, but ride the hot bat while you can.
Christian Walker
.353/.421/12/6/11/3
O-swing: 29.1%
Z-contact: 77%
Hard: 73.3%
GB:40%
Statcast: .428 xwOBA, 10, 13.2%, 112.4 MPH
Notes: Walker has been another of the hottest bats to start the season. He’s thriving on excellent batted ball quality, as seen in his excellent statcast data. The underlying skills aren’t teh best – league average plate discipline and below average contact skills, so the batting average (buoyed by a .462 BABIP) will regress pretty hard, but there’s no reason he can’t have a league average batting average with 25 HR and solid counting stats for the DBacks.
Hunter Dozier
.324/.430/12/7/12/0
O-swing: 23.8%
Z-contact: 92.9%
Hard: 47.3%
GB: 30.9%
Statcast: .434 xwOBA, 8, 9.3%, 113.5
Notes: Dozier was one of my bold predictions heading into the year and he hasn’t disappointed. He flashed three elite skills toward the end of last season with terrific contact, batted ball quality and elevation. All he needed was improved plate discipline and he’s delivering with a terrific o-swing. He has everything you want from a hitter, outside of speed, and he should be rostered in any format. Dude’s legit.
Travis Shaw
.182/.276/5/2/6/0
O-swing: 28.1%
Z-contact: 71.6%
Hard: 42.9%
GB: 39.6%
Statcast: .275 xwOBA, 3, 3.4%, 110.8%
Notes: Shaw has had a rough start to the season. I posted on Twitter earlier today that I was worried about the possibility of injury with a huge dip in contact, including into the mid-60s over his last 15 games, which was coupled with a decline in plate discipline. He has hit two home runs over the past two days, so whether it was a funk, an injury from the two HBP on his hand he’s already had this season, he may be starting to get out of it. Nathan Dokken had a good point on Twitter that we saw something similar to this from Matt Carpenter last year. Let’s hope it ends the same for Shaw’s owners.
Justin Turner
.260/.372/8/0/8/0
O-swing: 27.6%
Z-contact: 84.5% (-7.5%)
Hard: 50.8%
GB: 40.7% (+11%)
Statcast: .367 xwOBA (.306 wOBA), 3, 3.2%, 104.0 MPH
Notes: Turner is another 3B who’s struggled to get his mojo going in the first part of the season. He’s not hurting his fantasy owners too much, with the exception of the light power production. The contact is down and the GB% is up, which is a little concerning, and he did miss a few games through injury, but he’s also been unlucky. Whereas Shaw’s production is bad even in his expected metrics, Turner is well above average at .367. The power should come, too. He has 11 hard hit FB so far this year, but none of them have gone for HR. Hopefully he heats up soon and the power and batting average come.
Victor Robles
.270/.316/14/3/7/3
O-swing: 29.5%
Z-contact: 84.2%
Hard: 20.4%
GB: 31.8%
Statcast: .265 xwOBA (.347 wOBA), 3, 3.8%, 110.8 MPH
Notes: Robles has had a nice start to the season, especially with tonight’s 3 RBI, 2 SB night, which isn’t yet factored into the stat line. The plate skills are solid so far, but the batted ball quality has been lacking for Robles. The good news is he can get you value in a variety of different ways, and his 600 PA pace is 22.5 HR & SB. If the batted ball quality comes and the lineup position improves he could be a superstar, if he just maintains the status quo, he’s fine.
Gleyber Torres
.238/.275/12/4/9/1
O-swing: 35.7%
Z-contact: 82.7%
Hard: 44.4% (+6%)
GB: 44.4% (+12%)
Statcast: .290 xwOBA, 5, 5.5%, 106.7 MPH
Notes: Torres has had a modest start to the season, not terrible, but certainly not what his owners were hoping for. The main culprit appears to be a dramatic increase in GB%, which you don’t want to see. Still, he’s managed to hit for some power and the LD% should increase from it’s current 16% and help drive the batting average up. A lot of mediocrity in the profile right now and the counting stats won’t be as plentiful until the rest of the Yankees lineup returns.
Brad Peacock
21 IP, 4.29 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 17 K, 4.41 SIERA/4.51 xFIP
vFA: 92.19 (-1.5 MPH)
O-swing: 27.9%
F-strike: 65.5%
Zone: 41.0%
Z-contact: 92.2%
SwStr: 9.0%
CSW: 29.4%
K-BB: 13.1%
BABIP: .224
LOB: 61.8%
xwOBA: .255 xwOBA (.275 wOBA)
Notes: Peacock’s start and underlying skills are a bit bizarre. He can’t get anyone to swing a miss or miss in the zone, but his CSW is well above league average and he’s limiting contact well enough to have a solid .255 xwOBA. I am going to side on this means trouble for Peacock — while contact so far has been limited, it’s hard to be successful giving up this much contact and relying so heavily on called strikes. The jury’s still out, but the skills aren’t what they’ve been in the past, including his last time as a starter.
Shane Greene
12 IP, 1.50 ERA, 0.58 WHIP, 10 SV, 12 K, 3.25 SIERA/3.85 xFIP
vFA: 92.82 MPH (-2 to -3 MPH)
O-swing: 29.1%
F-strike: 65.9%
Zone: 46.3%
Z-contact: 79.6%
SwStr: 12.5%
CSW: 33.8%
K-BB: 20.5%
BABIP: .111
LOB: 90.9%
xwOBA: .286 xwOBA (.170 wOBA)
Notes: I wasn’t touching Greene this draft season because the skills were atrocious last year. He’s a good example of the fickleness of relievers and small samples. The skills have all improved, many dramatically. The biggest change is his cutter’s SwStr%, which has jumped up to 22.9% after 11.7% last year. It’s not a new pitch, at least from a classification perspective, just performing like one. He’s still been very lucky, but if he can maintain these skills, he should be a solid performer. The .111 BABIP and 90.9% LOB won’t stick around forever.
Marcus Stroman
30.2 IP, 1.76 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 29 K, 4.16 SIERA, 3.69 xFIP
vFA: 92.89 MPH (even)
O-swing: 26%
F-strike: 56.7%
Zone: 41.7%
Z-contact: 89.6%
SwStr: 10.5%
CSW: 28.3%
K-BB: 13.4%
BABIP: .302
LOB: 76.3%
xwOBA: .296 xwOBA
Notes: Stroman’s control has taken a step back this year, but his strikeout skills have taken a step forward with a 15% bump in his slider usage and fading his sinker. The results look like a fairly average SP, which should be useful given the leaguewide context, his late ADP, and that he should get a decent number of innings with the Blue Jays. He’s due some regression, mostly in the HR department where he has yet to give one up. But you can bank that 1.76 ERA and just hope it stays under 4 by the time the year is done.
Charlie Morton
26.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.16, 34 K, 3.76 SIERA/3.74 xFIP
vFA: 95.16 MPH (-1.5 MPH)
O-swing: 34.5%
F-strike: 56.4%
Zone: 43.4%
Z-contact: 86.2%
SwStr: 12.9%
CSW: 30.4%
K-BB: 20%
BABIP: .288
LOB: 76.9%
xwOBA: .283 xwOBA
Notes: Morton’s doing what Morton does – very solid if unspectacular so far. He’s faded the sinker slightly and replaced it with a slight bump in curveball usage, helping his strikeout numbers. Very steady profile so far. He’s struggled the second time through the order, but is perfect the third time through – a good sign of too small a sample.
Ryan Brasier
11.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 6 SV, 11 K, 3.47 SIERA/4.40 xFIP
vFA: 96.2 MPH (-.7 MPH)
O-swing: 35.9%
F-strike: 70.5%
Zone: 40.8%
Z-contact: 80%
SwStr: 17.9%
CSW: 29.1%
K-BB: 20.5%
BABIP: .222
LOB: 100%
xwOBA: .366 (.285 wOBA)
Notes: Brasier’s skills have been excellent so far, with sparkling control and strikeout metrics. He appears to have gotten lucky so far on batted balls, so some regression is coming. The 17.9% SwStr is elite, as is the F-strike % and the o-swing helps compensate for the lower zone %. Looks good here.
Roenis Elias
13.2 IP, 2.63 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 4 SV, 10 K, 4.75 SIERA/5.30 xFIP
vFA: 94.1 MPH (-.7 MPH)
O-swing: 30.2%
F-strike: 61.4%
Zone: 51.2%
Z-contact: 82.7%
SwStr: 10.9%
CSW: 26.7%
K-BB: 10.5%
BABIP: .233
LOB: 64.2%
xwOBA: .230 xwOBA
Notes: Elias has surprisingly good numbers for the lack of love he gets. He’s not dominant by any stretch of the imagination, but nothing is bad, and the strikeout metrics are OK and he pounds the zone. He hasn’t given up a HR yet, but he only gave up 0.18 HR/9 last year and 0.87 HR/9 in his career. Last year he had a 2.65 ERA in 51 IP with much worse skills. He doesn’t look terrific, but Elias should do the trick.