One of my son’s favorite YouTube videos is a short Christmas-themed Peppa the Pig where Santa forgets to give Peppa a present, only to return later that Christmas morning to make amends and give the poor little pig the present she always wanted. In one poignant shot, the camera zooms in on Peppa who shares the fear of every child: “Santa has forgotten me,” she says (3:13 of the video, if you’re interested).
What does this have to do with Shin-Soo Choo? In this wonderful analogy, Shin-Soo Choo is Peppa and fantasy owners are Santa. Have fantasy owners forgotten about the Rangers outfielder? His NFBC average draft position (ADP) of 327 seems to indicate they have, after an injury-plagued 2016 that saw Choo make only 210 plate appearances in 48 games. While the injuries are certainly a major factor in Choo’s drop in ADP, he doesn’t have a long injury history. In fact, before 2016, he averaged 645 plate appearances a season from 2012 through 2015. At 34, Choo is no spring chicken, but is the injury risk worth the potential reward for fantasy owners?
The numbers say yes. When Choo played in 2016, he demonstrated the same skills that have made him a valuable fantasy asset for owners over the years. In many ways, he improved on his solid 2015 showing (.276/94/22/82/4) by increasing his line drive, hard hit and fly ball rates, while simultaneously improving his contact rate by an exciting 4%. He also hit the ball hard in the air, with a 53.6% hard hit rate on line drives and fly balls that ranked 14th in MLB among hitters with at least as many line drives and fly balls as Choo (69).
Shin-Soo Choo: Forgotten But Not Gone
2016 vs. 2015GB/FB | LD % | FB % | Hard Hit % | Contact % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 1.53 | 22.3% | 30.8% | 43.2% | 79.7% |
2015 | 1.79 | 20.7% | 28.5% | 32.8% | 75.7% |
In addition to improving a lot of his batted ball skills, Choo also lowered his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate slightly and stole six bases, more than his 2015 total of four. Couple these improvements with the fact that Choo is scheduled to hit second in a strong Rangers lineup and the pieces are there for a possible return to fantasy productivity as a solid source of runs, home runs and stolen bases, who won’t hurt you in average or RBI and could actually help. So come this fantasy baseball draft season (our Christmas), don’t leave Choo wondering if you’ve forgotten him.