‘Tis the season for 10 bold predictions, so here are mine with a key stat or observation for why I am predicting so boldy.
Bold Prediction #1: Kendrys Morales finishes 2017 ranked higher than Edwin Encarnacion in 5×5 leagues
For followers of the blog, this shouldn’t surprise you. I wrote my first post on the skills Morales showed last year that bode well for his stats moving forward, particularly in the first hitters park of his career. I think Encarnacion will have some minor regression and wouldn’t select him at this current ADP (25th on NFBC since March 1), but this is more about Morales and the match made in heaven that is his skills and this Blue Jays team.
Bold prediction #2: Tyler Anderson will outperform Kyle Hendricks in 5×5 leagues
I spelled this out in an earlier post, but the skills Anderson showed in 2016 were better in a lot of ways that Hendricks, who was supported by an incredible Cubs defense and the corresponding .250 BABIP and 81.5% strand rate (LOB% on Fangraphs). Anderson is showcasing a bump in velocity this spring, according to Jeff Zimmerman’s tracker (you should be following him on twitter @jeffwzimmerman), that should boost the swinging strike rate (already better than Hendricks and above league average). I see continued progress from Anderson and some regression for Hendricks. I thought about making this a very bold prediction (a subspecies of the bold prediction) and saying he’d outperform Jon Lester, too, but I’ll stick for merely bold at this point.
Bold prediction #3: Paul Goldschmidt finishes outside Top 5 first basemen in 5×5 leagues
I wrote an in-depth article about Goldschmidt trending in the wrong direction on a number of key hitting skill indicators and the fact I think he is too reliant on stolen bases for his value. Part of this prediction is Goldschmidt becoming a mere mortal and the other is the immense talent at the top of the first baseman rankings (Bryant, Miggy, Freeman and Votto, among others).
Bold prediction #4: Matt Wieters finishes the season as #4 catcher in 5×5 leagues
I see big things for Wieters and his new approach, though his current spot in the Nationals lineup for spring training (8th mostly) is cause for some concern. That said, a hot bat will move its way up the lineup with plenty of talent and OBP in front of him. I’m putting my money where my mouth is by drafting Wieters in every league this year.
Bold prediction #5: Shin-Soo Choo (320 ADP) outperforms Rougned Odor (38 ADP) in 5×5 leagues
I think fantasy owners are forgetting just how good Choo is when healthy and last season was no different, though he didn’t get the volume of at bats necessary to overcome some initial bad luck. He should bat second in a fairly strong Rangers lineup, giving him solid counting stats to go along with a modest batting average, power and speed. He’s a mini five-category producer. On the other end of the spectrum, I just don’t believe in Odor. He strikes out a fair amount (21.4%), doesn’t walk at all (3.0% BB%), doesn’t hit line drives (17.6%) and his 33 HRs came on 27.9 xHR. Those power numbers aren’t too shabby, but when they come with a .257 xAVG and a halving of his IFFB% from previous years, I see major regression and no plate discipline to bail him out.
Bold prediction #6: Nick Markakis finishes the year 200 places above his current ADP (361)
I’m not sure if this is really that bold and more just taking advantage of fantasy owners fascination with new shiny objects, but outperforming your ADP by 200 spots is fairly significant. I wrote earlier about how Markakis is being undervalued as a solid contributor in three or four categories who doesn’t do anything very special but manages to put up stat lines that look like .280/70/10/70/3 every season. He appears to be an adopter of the shift toward elevating the ball to the pull field for power and showed a nice uptick in HRs in the second half. He won’t get many headlines, but he will make fantasy owners happy they remembered his name. Note: I am by no means immune to getting lost chasing the shiny new object–I forgot to draft Markakis in one of my leagues. I also forgot to draft Choo. (Insert monkey with hands over his eyes emoji here)
Bold prediction #7: Jake Lamb is a top 5 fantasy 3B in 5×5 leagues going .290/100/35/100/5
Third base is deep this year, but so is my love for Jake Lamb. I own him in every one of my leagues and will be rewarded for my undying affection if he does what I think he can, which is rake when healthy. A reminder, in 289 first half at bats, Lamb put together the following line: .291/49/20/61/3. Insert heart emoji here.
Bold prediction #8: A. Nola & J. Paxton finish as Top 15 SPs in 5×5 fantasy leagues
For both Nola and Paxton, the real challenge will be health and luck. Both pitchers displayed exceptional skills in 2016 but were hindered from reaching their full potential by injuries and some unlucky breaks on balls in play (high BABIP and low strand rate for Paxton, low strand rate for Nola). If both pitchers can reach 180 innings, a big if, I think they will be the proud owners of top 15 fantasy starter status, a designation I just made up but every pitcher craves.
Bold prediction #9: Billy Hamilton (70+) & Jarrod Dyson (50+) combine for 120+ SBs
I am in agreement with those who say that fantasy owners are over-paying for steals this season in an overreaction to the downward trend of the stolen base. Still, 120 stolen bases between two players is a lot. Hamilton could be amazing this season if he continues to show the propensity for walking in 2017 that he did toward the end of 2016. I’m buying the new plate discipline, since the increase in walk rate corresponded with a decrease in swinging at pitches outside the zone. This may seem intuitive, but it’s a good way to sift out random increases over short sample sizes. I believe Dyson will be an every day player in Seattle because his defense is valuable, particularly for a pitching staff built on fly balls and outfield defense, and his splits have been nothing to platoon over. 500 plate appearances for Dyson and 50 stolen bases should be no problem.
Bold prediction #10 (Award Winner edition): Darvish & Sydergaard (Cy Young), Freeman & Donaldson (MVP), Benintendi & Renfroe (ROYs)
I hate predictions that aren’t based on stats and the only player of all of these that I own in any league is Donaldson (I chose Miggy over him at 1.11 recently, too, since 1B is much more top-heavy than 3B this year and I think they’re both amazing and consistent). Darvish just needs health, Syndergaard just need a bit more luck than last season in BABIP (Kershaw will probably win but that’s no fun), Freeman has a beautiful batted ball profile (don’t tell my wife I said that), Donaldson is criminally underrated for a reason I can’t quite understand, Benintendi will be solid but doesn’t have much competition and the same goes for Renfroe.
Well, there it is, my first 10 bold predictions column. I look forward to berating myself at the end of the season, when I only get nine of them right. As always, thanks for reading and let me know where you agree or disagree and why!