Earlier today a new follower on Twitter asked me a simple question: Matt Shoemaker or Tyler Anderson? I don’t get many questions on Twitter, since I’m relatively new and just surpassed 100 followers (thank you, followers!), so I thought I’d give the question the BatFlip Crazy treatment of a full-fledged analysis.
Shoemaker (210 ADP on NFBC since March 1) and Anderson (328 ADP) are separated by 118 spots in drafts and Anderson is going in the very late rounds or undrafted in 12-team mixed leagues. So, in most cases, you can draft both.
If you face a straight up or down decision, it’s still challenging. If healthy, Shoemaker has shown strong skills and performance. That’s a big if, since Shoemaker has topped out at 160 innings pitched in a season, which he accomplished last season before a freak season-ending injury in September in Seattle (line drive to the head). I’ve covered Anderson in two previous posts (1 & 2), so let’s dig deeply into Shoemaker and see if we can come up with an answer.
The big change for Shoemaker came in May, when he started throwing his splitter on nearly 40% of his pitches and nearly twice as often as any other pitch. His splitter is elite, as batters had an OPS of only .529 against the pitch. It was also rated the second best splitter in MLB behind Masahiro Tanaka’s according to Fangraphs pitch values, and he decided to follow in the footsteps of Rich Hill and lean on his best offspeed pitch to a degree almost unheard of until recently. The results–both in underlying skills and statistics–were great.
After making the move to 40% splitters, every skill you could hope for began trending in the right direction. Opposing batters started making contact less and swinging at the ball outside the zone, resulting in a higher swinging strike rate. They also started hitting the ball on the ground more (Shoemaker’s splitter induces a 50% ground ball rate while he is historically a fly ball pitcher) and his hard hit rate dipped as well. This seems like a recipe for success in both real and fantasy baseball. As the below table indicates, it was.
Matt Shoemaker: Before & After 40% Splitters
StatsIP | W | ERA | WHIP | K-BB% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Shoemaker after 5/16 | 139.1 | 8 | 3.10 | 1.13 | 18.9% |
Shoemaker 2015 - 4/16 | 156 | 8 | 5.08 | 1.34 | 13.0% |
(Source: Fangraphs.com)
Shoemaker is not without his weaknesses. His 1.01 HR/9 is based on a bit of luck, as xStats.org had him at 23.5 xHR, which would’ve resulted in a much-higher and less palatable HR/9 of 1.32. That said, 5.6 xHR (in 20.2 innings) came before the move to his beloved splitter as his primary offering, while 17.9 xHR came over his final 139.1 post-splitter innings , which equates to an xHR/9 of 1.16. Luckily, he only gave up 12 actual home runs for a 0.80 HR/9 post-splitter. In fairness, xStats also had Shoemaker as slightly unlucky with his .315 BABIP (.300 xBABIP). Finally, in addition to his vulnerability to the long ball, Shoemaker’s other pitches all scored negative pitch values .
Where does this leave us with our initial question: Matt Shoemaker or Tyler Anderson? It’s hard to make the decision without context. Do you need innings and volume? Do you believe Anderson will hit the high end of his projections like I do?
For me, Anderson is the better value at his ADP. If you are drafting, pick a proven pitcher who will get you volume (Jeff Samardzija goes at a similar ADP to Shoemaker) and take a flier on Anderson late in drafts. If it’s one or the other, I’m taking Anderson, since I think there is a lot of room for upward growth and he had 4 pitches last season, including his fastball, that registered positive pitch value scores on Fangraphs. But…I’d probably tell you to take Shoemaker because the only major question he faces is health and he has a higher floor. How’s that for a non-answer?