Earlier today I tried something new. I sent out a request on Twitter for players who people are interested in learning more about, offering to provide some analysis. As someone with 132 Twitter followers as of this afternoon, there is always a strong chance of rejection in the form of no response with requests like these (it’s happened before!). Lo and behold, five people responded with players they wanted me to research more extensively.
As a fantasy baseball writer who is very enthusiastic about the game and struggles to keep things short and simple, this seems like a good way to bring value to other fantasy managers while also aligning with my interests. Without further ado, here is the first–hopefully of many–Going Deep columns based on follower requests. I’ll take a look at Mariners outfielders Mitch Haniger and Guillermo Heredia as well as Mets outfielder Michael Conforto.
Mitch Haniger, OF, Seattle Mariners
Haniger has been a popular sleeper candidates since the Mariners acquired him as part of a deal with Taijuan Walker and Jean Segura as the headliners. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs quickly pointed out that Haniger could be the key piece in determining who wins the deal, as he’s shown the ability to rake in the minors since making adjustments to his swing in 2015. He crushed the ball this spring (.389/.436/.653 in 72 ABs), locking down an everyday starting gig in RF and slotting 6th in the lineup (according to Roster Resource) behind a strong middle of the order with batters two through six all possessing OBPs above .350 in 2016. That fact alone should give Haniger plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.
Outside of this type of opportunity, it’s challenging to get a clear view of Haniger’s skills with only 123 major league plate appearances to go by, but it does provide us with some insight. From a batted ball standpoint, his ground ball to fly ball ratio looks good for a power hitter (0.89) with a 43.3% fly ball rate. He could use swapping some ground balls for line drives, since his line drive rate of 18.1% is a few points below league average. That said, one of the positive trends from Haniger’s first 123 plate appearances was his line drive rate.
Other elements of Haniger’s batted ball profile leave reason for optimism. He hit the ball hard (37.3%) and ranked 21st among batters with at least 70 batted balls events in average exit velocity (93.1), though his exit velocity on fly balls and line drives finished around the 80th percentile of batters. His hard hit rate on fly balls of 41.7% is solid and–combined with his strong fly ball rate–should result in 20-25 home runs in 500 plate appearances.
A repeat of his batted ball profile of 2016 in 2017 will result in a low batting average. He tended to pull most ground balls (59.4%) and only hit one to the opposite field (3.1%), a good way to suppress batting average on balls in play (ground balls had a BABIP of .239 across MLB in 2016 overall, but pulled ground balls had a .189 BABIP compared to .373 on opposite field grounders).
His low line drive rate does not help either. As a result, his low BABIP of .256 was deserved, if not a bit lucky (.241 xBABIP according to xStats.org). His last two years of minor league ball show BABIPs of .340 or higher at every level, so this may just be a product of small sample sizes and rates that have not stabilized. If he can get his line drive rate at or above league average, his BABIP should be fine and his batting average shouldn’t be a hit to fantasy owners.
One of the major concerns of scouts, as Cameron pointed out in his article, is Haniger’s propensity for the swing-and-miss. Haniger’s first foray with MLB pitching highlighted some of these challenges, as his swinging strike rate trended upward across his 123 plate appearances, likely because of a sharp decrease in contact on pitches outside the zone. That said, he still owned a below average swinging strike rate (9.5%), a league average contact rate (78.0%) and a well-below average rate of swinging at pitches outside the strike zone (25.9% compared to 30.6%). This last stat is critical, given his lack of contact outside the strike zone.
It’s clear why Haniger is generating such interest at his current ADP of 277. If he stays in the lineup every day and maintains his batted ball profile, Haniger should hit 20 home runs comfortably. He should also get plenty of opportunities to drive in runs with the OBP studs in front of him, and the depth of the Mariners lineup and his foot speed should keep his run total serviceable. I could also see him approaching 10 stolen bases, having stolen 12 in 129 games in the minors last year. Batting average is the real question given the lack of data in the majors. The key for Haniger is maintaining his plate discipline and not chasing pitches out of the zone, since this is a weakness that has kept many talented players from reaching their potential or even staying in the majors.
Michael Conforto, OF, New York Mets
Conforto draws a lot of attention because he plays baseball in New York, has demonstrated short spells of immense talent and his manager can’t seem to make a commitment to giving him the playing time necessary to develop. While Conforto has shown flashes of brilliance, he has not shown it consistently and has struggled mightily against lefties.
After looking at Conforto’s batted ball profile, I can’t say that I’m optimistic about a fantasy breakout in 2017. The primary reason for this–I don’t see how he contributes regularly to enough hitting categories in 5×5 leagues. Conforto certainly hits the ball hard and in the air, but I struggle to see him contributing in batting average, steals or even the counting stats given his likely position in the Mets batting order and questions about both playing time and platooning against lefties.
Conforto has the batted ball profile of a slugger. His ground ball to fly ball ratio is a solid 0.81. He also hits the ball hard, with a 39.9% hard hit rate on all balls in play and a 44.9% hard hit rate on fly balls. He probably got unlucky in 2016 with only 12 home runs, as his home run to fly ball rate probably should’ve approached 14-15% and xStats.org had him down for 16.5 xHR in only 348 plate appearances.
Unfortunately, that’s where I see the good news ending. The hallmark of Conforto’s career thus far has been inconsistency and while there may be good excuses for this based on the way he’s been yanked around, his statistics to date leave me concerned about his ability to put it together.
After 542 plate appearances in the majors, Conforto has a 23.9% strike out rate, though he finished 2016 at 25.9%. Strikeout rate is the quickest batting metric to stabilize (60 plate appearances, according to Fangraphs) and Conforto’s is headed in the wrong direction.
Conforto’s high strikeout rate leave him dependent on a high BABIP to support even a decent batting average, hence his career batting average of .238. Fans of Conforto and the Mets may point toward his hot April last year and at the end of 2015, but his BABIP in April of 2016 was .411. He certainly raked that month (.376 xBABIP), but it was driven by a ridiculous 51.7% hard hit rate (for reference, David Ortiz led the league in 2016 among every day players with a 45.9% hard hit rate).
Conforto’s batted ball profile makes him dependent on hard hit contact to sustain a league average BABIP. He is a dead-pull ground ball hitter (70.9%) and, as a result, saw the shift a good deal in 2016 after seeing it on a very limited basis in 2015. The results was a .165 BABIP on ground balls (he hit .134 on ground balls against the shift, versus .333 without the shift). His career line drive rate of 20.3% is slightly below league average and fly balls will never be a strong source of BABIP. In short, the underlying skills Conforto displays make even a league average BABIP and batting average difficult to achieve.
If Conforto is not going to hit for average and he isn’t going to steal bases then counting stats become critical to supporting his fantasy value. With a full season of plate appearances, 30+ home runs is a distinct possibility, but there are so many obstacles to playing time for Conforto that projecting a decent amount of runs and RBI requires too many things out of his control, primarily the performance of other Mets outfielders and Terri Collins trusting him against lefties.
In short, while Conforto’s ability and the media market in New York have helped generate a strong buzz, I don’t see the skills or opportunities to support a breakout in 2017. Note: I actually drafted Conforto in one of my leagues and will be dropping him at the first weekly waiver opportunity after conducting this analysis.
Guillermo Heredia, OF, Seattle Mariners
Heredia strikes me as one of those players who is better in real life than in fantasy baseball. He plays plus defense in the outfield, controls the strike zone and makes a lot of contact. Unfortunately, he doesn’t posses any particularly noteworthy skill for fantasy purposes.
Heredia’s most notable quality is his control of the strike zone. He only swung at 21.2% of pitches outside the strike zone in 2017, resulting in a strong 11.2% walk rate coupled with a low 14% strike out rate. He is the definition of a contact-only hitter, with an abysmal hard hit rate of 16.7% and a soft hit rate nearly double that (30.8%).
Generally players of this prototype bring with them a lot of speed, but Heredia has not stolen a lot of bases since making the move from Cuba to the U.S. In 2016, he was limited to five stolen bases in 93 games and only stole one base for the Mariners in 107 plate appearances. Scott Servais even mentioned recently when discussing the battle for fourth outfielder that Heredia, despite being faster than Ben Gamel, probably wasn’t as good of a baserunner. Because of the soft contact, relatively low line drive rate (20.3%) for a contact hitter and solid but unspectacular speed, Heredia’s BABIP of .289 aligned with his .285 xBABIP, according to xStats.org.
Given Heredia’s lack of power (1 xHR in 107 plate appearances) and speed and propensity for soft contact, counting stats would be the only place where he might have some value for fantasy owners. Unfortunately, given he is locked in a battle for the 4th outfield spot, playing time is not a sure thing and he would likely be stuck batting ninth in the deep Mariners lineup when he does play.
The best case scenario involves Jarrod Dyson struggling against lefties and Heredia coming in to platoon and accruing a decent average, some runs and stolen bases. Even that seems a bit optimistic given Dyson’s value on defense and his recent success against lefties. As a result, Heredia is only worth rostering in the deepest of AL-only leagues.