Below are some quick thoughts and analysis on a few players:
Carlos Correa
Carlos Correa started the season slow, but has picked up the pace over the past week. As I mentioned on twitter early last week, the signs are there for a huge breakout and he makes a great buy-low candidate. One of the major knocks on Correa early in his career was a power ceiling as a result of high ground ball rates. Not anymore. Correa’s fly ball rate is up 11.9% to 39.3%, which is well above league average.
His hard hit rate is also up 7.7% to a terrific 44.9%, including 45.7% on fly balls. His plate discipline is holding steady and his contact rate is up slightly, which bodes well for his batting average. The expected stats love Correa, too, as xStats.org has his expected slash line at .328/.393/.562 with 6.0 xHR compared to his 3 HR (he’s since hit a home run tonight). Buy now, if you can.
Chris Owings
Chris Owings started the year off strong and continues to impress. I continue to believe it’s sustainable. The one area of concern I have for Owings is his strikeout rate, which is slightly above league average at 23%. Owings has a history of strong BABIPs (career .323) and his current high BABIP is supported by the fourth best line drive rate in all of baseball at 30.5%. If he can keep the strikeout rate near league average, I see no reason why he can’t hit .280-.290 for the season to go along with solid counting stats and a lot of stolen bases.
Owings’ five home runs have also been a bonus for fantasy owners, since he only had five all of 2016. Again, the underlying skills support the power (4.7xHR). Owings’s fly ball rate is low, but 55% of his hard hit fly balls are pulled, which is key to high HR/FB rates–61.8% of hard hit pulled fly balls last year went for home runs. I’m buying the start.
Starting Pitchers
Earlier this week I wrote about four pitchers who are worthy of a look for Corey Kluber owners. A week later and and you can add Noah Syndergaard and James Paxton owners to the list of fantasy baseball players looking for more starting pitching.
Three of the five pitched well last night and the fourth and fifth–Charlie Morton and Dan Straily–pitched well tonight. All five are owned in less than 50% of Yahoo! leagues. In competitive leagues, however, you’re likely only to find Nathan Karns (9%) still on the waiver wire. Grab him before it’s too late.