Yesterday I took a look at some of the best buy low options for fantasy owners. For each player, I dove into their batted ball profile using differences between their real and expected stats (thanks to xstats.org) and exit velocity numbers (thanks to Statcast) for 2016 and 2017.
A number of other buy low options exist, which I’ll cover below with one key stat and graphic highlighting why they represent a strong buy low option.
Edwin Encarnacion
Encarnacion’s status as a buy low may be fading given his two home run performance yesterday. While his contact rate has fallen this year to a career low 70.3% and his strikeout rate sits at a career-worst 28.8%, his line drive and hard hit rates are both up (5.6% and 4.7%, respectively), too. The increased line drive and hard hit rates help compensate for the increased strikeouts and limit the floor of his batting average. Expect a strong rest of the season from Encarnacion with home run totals near his career average and a batting average in the .250-.260 range.
Key stat: 44.4% hard hit fly ball rate compared to 42.6% in 2016.
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber has struggled to stay above the Medoza Line in 2017 after fantasy owners heaped unrealistic expectations on his bat following a year off due to injury. The Cubs catcher-turned-leftfielder has had contact issues throughout his short career and they’ve continued early this season.
The good news for Schwarber and his fantasy owners (especially those in Yahoo! leagues where he has catcher eligibility) is the underlying skills reflect a much stronger level of expected perfomance. The difference between his .186/.306/.365 slash line and his .228/.344/.438 expected slash line show the potential to help fantasy teams, including 8.0 xHR. A .344 OBP as the leadoff hitter in the Cubs lineup should get you at least 100 runs for the season, once the rest of the lineup heats up.
Most importantly, Schwarber has made adjustments at the plate that should result in a decreased strikeout rate. He’ll hurt you in average, but the counting stats and homers should be there.
Key stats: 2.3% drop in swing rate outside the zone, a 7.5% increase in contact rate and a 4.2% decrease in swinging strike rate.
Manny Machado
Fantasy owners who drafted Machado in the first round have been disappointed thus far in their investment. Machado is hitting just .218 and his counting stats, while solid, do not reflect the production expected from his 8th overall ADP. Fantasy owners can chalk up much of the poor production to bad luck, as Machado’s .221 BABIP rests well below his xBABIP of .301 and obscures huge gains in his hard hit rate. Machado will recover and finish strong.
Key stats: Machado’s hard hit rate has increased 7% and his hard hit rate on fly balls has increased 12.6%. In terms of exit velocity, that’s 104.5 mph average exit velocity on hard drives of 19-26 degrees launch angle and 95.6 mph on fly balls at 26-39 degrees.