Jonathan Villar has gotten off to a relatively slow start this season. Many fantasy owners took the plunge and drafted him in the second or third round in 2017, hoping he couple replicate his 2016 performance (or even come close).
Drafting someone with Villar’s speed has its benefits; even with his early struggles, he has still contributed 12 stolen bases, decent power and a reasonable amount of counting stats. And while in past seasons his .212 batting average would have sunk fantasy owners in the category, virtually every team has a batting average dud or two in the new three-outcome baseball landscape.
Does Villar’s slow start reflect a drop in skills or should fantasy owners expect a return to last season’s performance?
Plate Discipline & Contact
The challenge with Villar’s start is that his stats reflect a drop in some key skills. His walk rate lags 2.5% behind last season’s 11.6% at 9.1%, a critical drop for someone whose primary value comes from getting on base. Unfortunately, the drop in walk rate reflects a 3.2% jump in his swing rate on pitches outside the zone and 3.6% increase in his overall swing rate. Villar’s OBP has suffered because of his lack of patience and currently rests .085 below his 2016 figure of .369 at .284.
The same story holds true with his 4% increase in strikeout rate. Villar’s 3% drop in contact rate and 2.4% increase in swinging strike rate helps explain the jump to a 29.2% strikeout rate. While Villar has seen similar rates in previous years and has made adjustments, none of those seasons came with the level of production we saw in 2016.
Quality of Contact
Beyond plate discipline, the quality of contact Villar has made (when he actually hits the ball) represents another area of major concern . Villar’s ground ball rate has increased 8%, taking away from both his line drive (down 5%) and fly ball (down 3.5%) rates, and sits at a very high 64.1%. His -0.4° average launch angle for this season reflects the increase in ground balls and it’s 3.3° lower than in 2016. You can see how this plays out below.
Jonathan Villar
Percentage of balls in play at key launch anglesUnder 0° | 0° to 10° | 10° to 19° | 19° to 26° | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 52.3% | 15.9% | 8.3% | 4.5% |
2016 | 46.0% | 13.7% | 14.4% | 8.0% |
2017 +/- | +6.3% | +2.2% | -6.1% | -3.5% |
Source: xStats.org (go to “batter look up” and search for Villar)
Villar has thrived on high BABIPs during his career, partially by having well-above average BABIPs on ground balls. The decreased launch angle and increased rate of balls hit under 0° (essentially right into the ground) has had a dramatic impact on the quality of his ground balls and his BABIP on them.
Last year Villar’s BABIP on ground balls was .313 and in 2015 it was .300. This year it sits at .256. The likely reason: a 10.4% increase in soft hit ground balls (up to 39% of all his ground balls). Villar’s career BABIP on soft ground balls? .135.
The decreased launch anlge and corresponding increase in soft hit ground balls help explain why Villar’s BABIP currently sits at .287 (.286 xBABIP) compared to his career .339 and last year’s .373. The large drop in batted balls at much better launch angles (0° through 26°) compounds Villar’s BABIP issues and, more importantly, his production.
His Power Is Real
It’s not all doom and gloom for Villar, however. Many fantasy owners have questioned Villar’s ability to maintain an above-average home run to fly ball rate because he hadn’t hit more than seven in any season prior to 2016, when he hit 19. I disagree. While he may not hit a lot of fly balls, when he does hit them he hits them hard.
His hard hit fly ball rate of 55.6% ranks 16th among hitters with at least 25 fly balls and represents only a 1% increase over last season’s 54.6% rate. Last year his home run to fly ball rate finished at 18.6% and it’s at 18.5% today. His 5 home runs this year come on 6.3 xHR and his 95.1 average exit velocity on fly balls in the key home run launch angle range of 26° to 39° has him nestled between Edwin Encarnacion and Jake Lamb on that leaderboard. I think the power is real.
Summary
Villar’s 2017 struggles reflect an erosion of his plate discipline and poorer quality of contact. If he hopes to regain the hearts of fantasy owners and the performance from last season, his approach at the plate will need to change. While he showed the ability to adjust from similar struggles in past years to thrive in 2016, he never experienced this level of struggle last season.
The good news for Villar’s fantasy owners is he still has speed, though the drop in OBP and batting average will hurt the number of chances he has to use it. His power also appears legitimate based on a strong hard hit fly ball rate and a home run to fly ball rate he has sustained over the past 200 games. The power and speed combo means he still has solid value for fantasy owners, it will just have to come with a lower batting average and fewer counting stats.
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