A few thoughts and pictures on Cody Bellinger, Gregory Polanco, Daniel Norris and Raimel Tapia.
Cody Bellinger
Bellinger leads the majors in home runs since his call-up on April 24. His Statcast launch angle charts tell the story: he has consistently hit the ball at terrific launch angles (15-25°) at close to or more than 100 mph. Beautiful.
Some fantasy owners doubt his ability to continue mashing given his struggles with contact (67.5%), but he has shown the ability to adjust after a few bad weeks. His walk rate has increased and sits at 12.9% over his last 20 games. Similarly, his hard hit rate has taken off. Over his last 20 games, Bellinger has hit 56.3% of his batted balls hard. And his contact rate? It has moved above 70% over the same time period. Bellinger is a star.
Gregory Polanco
If you haven’t already, it’s probably time to consider dropping Gregory Polanco in shallower formats. He has an abysmal hard hit rate (22.1%) and I would guess his injuries have taken a toll. Take a look at his hard hit rate below, if you need more convincing.
Polanco has hit fewer balls at key launch angles and has struggled, in particular, hitting the ball hard on fly balls. His exit velocity on fly balls at home run launch angles of 26-39° has dropped 6.8 mph down to 83.0 mph on average.
Polanco has also taken a step back in his plate discipline, swinging at more pitches outside the zone and making less contact. A healthy Polanco has a lot of value in fantasy baseball, but I’m not sure we ever get to see that this season.
Daniel Norris
Before the season, I included Norris among my underrated starters heading into 2017 based on his excellent September showing last year. He stumbled out of the gate early, but has improved each month, including posting a 11.12 K/9 on a 28.8% strikeout rate so far in June. Norris continues to walk too many batters and get hit hard (42.5%), which helps explain his elevated .357 BABIP (.338 xBABIP).
One possible reason for the improvement: He has started using his two best pitches–his curve and changeup–more. Hitters have crushed his fastball (batters have a 166 wRC+ against the pitch) and have hit above league average on his slider as well (122 wRC+). While he hasn’t put it all together yet, fantasy owners should monitor Norris over his next couple starts and stash him if you need pitching.
Raimel Tapia
Tapia had a nice stretch of 4 straight starts filling in for Gerardo Parra and others in the Rockies outfield before sitting on Sunday (he had a pinch hit single and later scored in the Rockies 9th inning comeback). He won’t hit for power, but if he can master the zone and hit line drives (32.1% over 82 major league plate appearances), he’ll have value in batting average and steals (though he’ll have to do better on the basepaths, having been caught stealing on two consecutive attempts).
In a very small sample size, Tapia has made progress on plate discipline, making more contact, swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone and improving on both ends of his walk and strikeout rates. Fantasy owners should monitor Tapia in shallower leagues and pick him up in deeper formats. He’ll bring value if he can find a way into consistent playing time.