Todd Frazier
I wrote about Frazier earlier this year and how he’d been unlucky in 2017. That bad luck has continued throughout May, despite strong gains in his underlying skills.
Stats vs. xStats
Todd Frazier
Stats vs. Expected StatsAVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BABIP | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 Stats* | .189 | .310 | .356 | 5 | .204 |
2017 xStats | .258 | .369 | .498 | 8.0 | .272 |
+/- | +.069 | +.059 | +.142 | +3.0 | +.068 |
Source: Fangraphs and xStats.org
Across his stat line, Frazier underperforms his expected stats by a considerable margin. His batted ball profile is very similar to last season, with the exception of an increase in line drives and a small decrease in fly balls. Frazier has never generated high BABIPs, but the .204 figure is well below his career average (.275) and career low (.236) from last season. He also underperforms by 3 xHR.
Stats vs. Skills
Todd Frazier
SkillsLD+FB % | O-swing% | Contact % | Hard hit % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 64.4% | 32.6% | 73.3% | 31.3% |
2017 | 65.0% | 26.1% | 78.0% | 29.1% |
Source: Fangraphs
Frazier’s skills demonstrate progress in a number of key areas. His patience has improved over last season, as has his contact rate. In fact, his 2017 plate discipline and contact skills reflect career bests.
Frazier continues to elevate the ball consistently and his 0.75 ground ball to fly ball ratio mirrors the level he showed last season at 0.73. While the increased line drives could have a very small impact on his home run total, theoretically it should also help his BABIP.
His hard hit rate is down slightly overall and on fly balls, but only by a 1-2% in both cases and he continues to pull a large percentage of his hard hit fly balls. Nothing screams out regression in his profile.
Statcast
The largest differences for Frazier exist in his Statcast data on the rate of batted balls with an exit velocity of 95 mph or more.
Todd Frazier
Statcast Batted BallExit Velo FB/LD | 95+ MPH | Barrels/PA | |
---|---|---|---|
2016 | 93.9 | 35.4% | 6.6% |
2017 | 93.1 | 27.2% | 7.0%% |
+/- | -0.8 | -8.2% | 0.4% |
Source: Baseball Savant
Still, his exit velocity on line drives and fly balls is within a percentage point and he has increased–albeit slightly–his barrels/plate appearance. Again, if you’re looking for a major change that would result in such a massive drop in BABIP and overall skills nothing jumps out. The drop in balls hit 95 mph or more is the most significant change, but other hard hit indicators are fairly similar.
Conclusion
Nothing in Frazier’s skills or batted ball profile explains the huge drop in BABIP and power numbers. As a result, Frazier represents a strong buy-low opportunity. While “buying low” is easier said than done, the level of Frazier’s struggles and the drain he has had on the batting average for his owners may make them more willing to part with him than on other players drafted at a similar level.
Frazier also continues to run a decent amount. While he may come up short of his 15 stolen bases in 2016, 12–his current pace–seems reasonable. Add in that he may get traded to a contender (i.e. stronger lineup) later this year and you should try to pick him up in your league at a reasonable price before the positive regression in his BABIP erases the opportunity.