Two weeks ago, I shared my starting pitcher flips and flops. This week, I’m identifying outfielders I see as undervalued (flips) and overvalued (flops) in fantasy baseball this year. I’ll break them out into two posts, starting with my outfield flips–2017 undervalued fantasy outfielders.
Outfield Flips
1. Justin Upton (83 ADP)
Justin Upton has been one of the most consistent fantasy performers in recent years. As Alex Chamberlain at Rotographs noted, Upton is one of 11 players to finish in the top 100 in fantasy for the past 5 years. Many fantasy players remember Upton’s slow start to 2016 and not the torrid finish, in which he put up a .260, 41R, 22HR, 49RBI and 4SB second half in just 68 games. Batting average is the only dent in Upton’s resume, but as Chamberlain notes in his piece and xStats.org concurs (xAVG of .257), Upton’s batting average reflects some bad luck on balls in play. He continues to hit the ball hard (37.9%) and barrel it up at an above average rate (7.7% barrels per plate appearance) and will likely bat 5th or 2nd in a strong lineup. Taken together, Upton has a very high floor and a ceiling that would put him firmly back in the top 15 of outfielders.
2. Adam Eaton (130)
Eaton is another consistent fantasy performer, putting up three consecutive season of similar performance (his 2014 was similar production per plate appearance to 2015 and 2016). If Eaton can continue this level of production on his new team, he will likely eclipse 100 runs hitting at the top of a much stronger lineup and crack 20 stolen bases, since Dusty Baker tends to give players the green light (Washington stole 44 more bases as a team than the White Sox in 2016). His power numbers shouldn’t be impacted too much despite a slight drop in park factors, as Eaton actually hit more home runs on the road the past two seasons. In 2015, Eaton finished 54th in Yahoo’s end of season rankings but fell to 112th last season. Given his recent success, Eaton should have no problem outperforming his current ADP with a new team that should provide more opportunities in the counting statistics.
3. Yasmany Tomas (148)
I wrote a lot about El Tanque here. In short, he has near elite batted ball skills, a great hitter’s park in Arizona and a strong lineup in front of him. He should have no problem outperforming his ADP.
4. Joc Pederson (208)
Pederson has lefty split issues, which may limit his playing time, but when he plays he hits the ball hard. He ranked 9th in MLB with an exit velocity on line drives and fly balls of 97.1mph, had above average barrel rates and ranked 7th among batters with 150 or more plate appearances in the second half with a 45.2 hard hit %. He continues to walk at a high rate and has cut his K% to a somewhat reasonable level, which should help him support a playable batting average around .250. If he get enough at bats, Pederson could hit more than 30 home runs with decent counting stats and, who knows, maybe this is the season he finally steals the bases we were promised when he entered the league. In short, the potential is well worth the ADP.
4. Jarrod Dyson (278)
Speed was valuable in 2016, as stolen bases and stolen base attempts continue their decline. Dyson is well worth the late round pick as a cheap source of steals. He is expected to lead off for the Mariners as their full-time centerfielder and, if Dyson can replicate the .340 OBP he put up in 2016 at the top of that lineup, he should score plenty of runs with Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager hitting behind him. A platoon for Dyson is possible, but his career splits aren’t horrible (.308 career OBP vs. lefties) and he provides enough value with his defense that he should at least get a chance to play every day. In 337 plate appearances last year he managed 30 stolen bases, so 40-50 isn’t out of the question in 2017. At pick 278th, the potential reward is certainly worth the risk.
5. Nick Markakis (384)
A couple months ago, I ran a search to find the next David Murphy, someone with solid contact skills who shifted their approach by increasing their fly ball and pull rates in an effort to maximize damage on contact. While I ended up focusing on Matt Wieters, I just as easily could’ve focused on Markakis. His second half of 2016 isn’t going to win him any awards (.289, 31R, 8HR, 42RBI, 0SB in 71 games), but the approach is worth noting.
Nick Markakis 2016
Two halfs, two different approachesGB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | Pull% | ISO | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 1st Half | 1.40 | 20.4% | 46.5% | 33.1% | 29.2% | .110 |
2016 2nd Half | 1.02 | 23.8% | 38.6% | 37.7% | 39.0% | .152 |
Markakis isn’t going to regain his 2007-2009 form anytime soon, but at an ADP of 384 you don’t need him to. Markakis could bring some value to fantasy teams off the bench in mixed leagues and could be a steal in NL-only. A repeat of 2016 is possible with a slightly higher batting average (~.280) and a few more home runs (15). That wouldn’t be too bad coming from a player going undrafted in most 12-team mixed leagues.