When I made my 10 bold predictions earlier in the season, I legitimately felt confident in all of them. The beauty of pre-season is hope and the beauty of mid-season is reality. With that in mind, I’m taking a look at my 10 bold predictions, assessing their likelihood of success or failure and sharing some lessons I’ve learned in the process.
Note: When comparing or providing ranks for players, I’ll use Yahoo! player rankings.
Bold Prediction #1: Kendrys Morales finishes 2017 ranked higher than Edwin Encarnacion in 5×5 leagues
Morales ranks 156th
Encarnacion ranks 78th
My first prediction didn’t look too bad about a month ago. Morales had hit at a steady pace with a decent number of home runs and RBI, while Encarnacion had struggled to make contact and a good impression on his new team.
Flash forward to today and Encarnacion has had the month from hell (as far as this prediction is concerned), putting up a .307/27/7/28/1 5×5 line since June 10, including a 1.017 OPS. Meanwhile, Morales put up another mediocre month of .261/13/5/17/0 with a .777 OPS and a worrying 32% strikeout rate.
I still have some hope for the prediction, as Encarnacion has outperformed his expected stats according to xStats.org while Morales has underpeformed his. Morales went on an epic hot streak at the end of 2016, so I’m hoping for the same. Still, it’s an uphill battle with their overall skills trending in the opposite directions.
Odds: 20%
Bold prediction #2: Tyler Anderson will outperform Kyle Hendricks in 5×5 leagues
Hendricks ranks 302nd
Anderson ranks 856th
Both pitchers have struggled through injury and poor performances in 2017, but that doesn’t take away the sting for how poorly this prediction has done. The one positive sign for Anderson underneath the scary ERA and WHIP: many of his skills this year have actually improved over last season. My only hope for putting this prediction in the win column would be a healthy Anderson (he’s having knee surgery) coming back after the All-Star Break and crushing it for the second half. Hope springs eternal!
Note: I fully expect this prediction to fall in the one-year-too-early category. Look for Anderson to make his way into my bold predictions next season.
Odds: 5%
Bold prediction #3: Paul Goldschmidt finishes outside Top 5 first basemen in 5×5 leagues
Goldschmidt ranks 1st among first baseman and 2nd overall among hitters
One of the lessons I’ve learned in my first year of public fantasy analysis is to trust the track record of elite players. On more than one occasion I’ve raised red flags on a player with an established track record because this skill or that skill had started to decline, only for the player to turn it around.
Predicting when a poor run of performance is a blip on the radar and when it signals the fading of a player’s fantasy baseball prime remains one of the biggest challenges in fantasy baseball and one of the many reasons we love the game.
Back to Goldschmidt… he has crushed it in the first half, solidifying his status as a lock for the first round of next season’s fantasy baseball drafts. One thing I did get right: first base has incredible depth, with five first baseman in the top 30 in fantasy and 11 in the top 50. Goldy will have to continue to mash to lead the pack, but I’m confident he’ll finish the season in the top 5. His two stolen bases since May 20 should concern fantasy owners who were relying on a high stolen base total.
Odds: 10%
Bold prediction #4: Matt Wieters finishes the season as #4 catcher in 5×5 leagues
Wieters ranks 16th among catchers
I learned an important lesson with my faith in Wieters this season as well. Just as you shouldn’t lose faith in players with established track records as consistent fantasy performers, you also shouldn’t expect a 31 year-old catcher to dramatically increase his level of offensive production in their ninth major league season. Lesson learned.
Odds: 1%
Bold prediction #5: Shin-Soo Choo (320 ADP) outperforms Rougned Odor (38 ADP) in 5×5 leagues
Choo ranks 132nd
Odor ranks 152nd
Mid-season victory!
A month ago, Choo had more than a 100-rank lead on Odor, but the Rangers second baseman has had a decent past month and has started to contribute more stolen bases than fantasy owners anticipated. Odor still has an unsustainable chase rate (40.1%), walk rate (3.9%) and strikeout rate (23.8%) combination, so I’m still confident Choo will make this a full-season victory.
Choo has also had poor luck in the first half, with a stat line well below his expected stats. If he continues to hit line drives at a high rate (26.3%), fly balls at a strong hard hit rate (53.7%) and get on base like he has (.368) while batting leadoff, Choo should finish above Odor when the dust settles in very early October.
Odds: 60%
Bold prediction #6: Nick Markakis finishes the year 200 places above his current ADP (361)
Markakis ranks 279th
Steady as ever (something I was right about), Markakis continues to contribute at a low ADP. His lack of power and steals really hurts his fantasy value. Without a second half power surge (4HR on 4.9 xHR), it’s unlikely this prediction will come to pass.
Odds: 20%
Bold prediction #7: Jake Lamb is a top 5 fantasy 3B in 5×5 leagues going .290/100/35/100/5
Lamb ranks 2nd among third basemen and is on track to outperform my predicted stat line.
Jake Lamb! Before the season started, I wrote about how awesome Jake Lamb is and about the injury that derailed his breakout season in 2016. So far, no injury, and my prediction is on track. I love Jake Lamb.
Odds: 80%
Bold prediction #8: A. Nola & J. Paxton finish as Top 15 SPs in 5×5 fantasy leagues
Paxton ranks 25th among starting pitchers
Aaron Nola ranks 34th among starting pitchers
Both Paxton and Nola would rank higher had they both not experienced DL trips earlier in the first half. That would be a great excuse, except every starting pitcher has had a trip to the DL in the first half and these two in particular have a history of recent injuries (one of the reasons the prediction was bold). I still think Paxton will finish in the top 15 if he can remain healthy (a big if), since many of the names in front of him have outperformed expectations.
Nola also has an outside shot, as over the last 30 days he ranks 10th among starting pitchers. The Phillies offense may suppress his win total, making top 15 difficult, but if he stays healthy (a big if, once again) I think he finishes the year as a top 25 pitcher. Solid progress, but not bold enough.
Odds: 40% on Paxton, 10% on Nola and 4% on both.
Bold prediction #9: Billy Hamilton (70+) & Jarrod Dyson (50+) combine for 120+ SBs
Hamilton: 37 SB
Dyson: 20 SB
Hamilton has mostly held up his end of the bargain, but Dyson’s opportunities took a hit when his early season struggles pushed him from leadoff in the Mariners lineup to the bottom third of the order, where he has stayed ever since. Stolen bases generally decline over the course of a season due to normal wear and tear, so I’m not confident in the prediction. My best guess: Hamilton finishes the season in the low-to-mid 60s in stolen bases while Dyson finishes in the low-to-mid 30s. Make it 100 stolen bases between the two.
Odds: 10%
Bold prediction #10 (Award Winner edition): Darvish & Sydergaard (Cy Young), Freeman & Donaldson (MVP), Benintendi & Renfroe (ROYs)
Darvish ranks 9th among AL starting pitchers
Syndergaard…
Oh, Freddie, what could’ve been…
I still expect a strong second half from Donaldson, but…
Benintendi firmly 2nd in the race behind Aaron Judge
Not much to say here. Scherzer and Kershaw appear destined to battle it out again for the Cy Young in the NL, while Chris Sale has a strong lead in the AL Cy Young race. I do expect Corey Kluber, who’s been unhittable since returning from the DL, to push him to the end.
Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt likely lead the AL and NL MVP race thus far, though both have a number of great competitors. This race will be decided at the end of the season.
The Rookie of the Year awards should go to Judge and Cody Bellinger, unless something drastic happens in the second half. Benintendi has had a terrific first half and Renfroe has been solid as well, but you can’t compete with the historic starts Judge and Bellinger have had to their careers.
Odds: 0%