Earlier this year I made some bold predictions about the 2019 season. You can read the initial article to see my justification for each bold prediction, but now is not a time to dwell on the past. It is a time to dwell on the bold predictions I got right, while ignoring the ones I got wrong.
One quick caveat: I’d be lying if I didn’t tell you that some of the offensive bold predictions were impacted by the happy fun ball. I’ll take the ball-aided predictions I got right, but it seems disingenuous to leave it out of the conversation.
Alright, let’s review!
Bold Prediction 1: Max Kepler is this year’s Matt Carpenter and hits over .250 with 30 HR and 180 RBI and runs.
This bold prediction was so right on, you might think I can predict the future. Kepler finished with a .252 batting average, 36 home runs and 188 runs and RBI in a breakout season. In the famous words (and now GIF) of Andy Bernard in The Office: “Nailed it!”
Record: 1-0
Bold Prediction 2: Jake Bauers becomes the latest Cleveland Indian with limited power projection to hit 25 HR (and also steals 15 bases).
Not even the happy fun ball could make Bauers remotely fantasy viable. I wish there was something optimistic I could say about Bauers for next year, but I’ve moved on. You should, too.
Record: 1-1
Bold Prediction 3: Joe Musgrove (currently SP47) finishes as a top 20 starting pitcher.
Musgrove was drafted as the SP47 and finished as the SP61, according to ESPN’s Player Rater (which I identified as the arbiter of my bold predictions in my initial column). Musgrove’s performance had a number of peaks and (deep) valleys this year, which made him frustrating to own. He finished strong, but by that time many Musgrove owners had already moved on.
While I missed on Musgrove this year, I still believe. With the good news coming out of Pittsburgh that Ray Searage is no longer the pitching coach and Musgrove’s improved velocity and skills down the stretch, check this space in March for another Musgrove bold prediction.
Let’s go! pic.twitter.com/jQHSRvl25I
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) October 11, 2019
Record: 1-2
Bold Prediction 4: Yasiel Puig hits 35 home runs and 20 stolen bases.
Puig finished with a respectable 24 home runs and 19 stolen bases, but fell far below my lofty expectations. I’m still waiting for Yasiel to have that career year and prove one of my Puig-related bold predictions right.
Record: 1-3
Bold Prediction 5: Nick Pivetta (SP36 in drafts) finishes the season outside the Phillies rotation and the top 75 starting pitchers.
You can’t say I didn’t warn you! The best thing about this prediction is that Pivetta was so bad, even in a small sample, he torched your ratios. So, if you listened, you avoided catastrophe. Sometimes it’s not just drafting the right players, but avoiding the right players, too.
Record: 2-3
Bold Prediction 6: Xander Bogaerts hits 30 HR and leads the American League in RBI, finishing as a top 15 fantasy baseball performer.
Bogaerts finished with 33 HR and 117 RBI, and as the 14th highest rated hitter according to the ESPN Player Rater. Technically he didn’t lead the AL in RBI and I didn’t say he’d be a top 15 hitter (I said “top 15 fantasy baseball performer”), but I’m still giving myself a win. Bogaerts surpassed his previous career high in HR by 10, his previous career high in RBI by 14 and hit .300+ for the first time in four years. I’m calling it a W!
Record: 3-3
Bold Prediction 7: Matt Harvey (currently outside the top 100 SP) resurrects his career with the Angels (and as a fantasy contributor) providing top 40 SP production.
I wouldn’t blame you, if you decided never to read an article or listen to a podcast I’m on ever again. Judgment like this can’t be trusted. I blame the Mets.
Record: 3-4
Bold Prediction 8: Hunter Dozier finishes as the team leader in HR (25+) and RBI (80+) with the Royals.
Redemption! 26 HR and 84 RBI later, and it’s another victory! Dozier’s performance this year was sweet, and getting this bold prediction right made it even sweeter.
(Also, please remind me never to base my bold predictions for a player on how he finishes compared to other players.)
Record: 4-4
Bold Prediction 9: Adalberto Mondesi finishes the year with an O-swing under 33%, a walk rate above 6% and goes 25/50.
Injury derailed a fine season for Mondesi, but he was able to help out his fantasy owners with 43 SB. This was good for second most in all of baseball, despite Mondesi only accruing 443 PA. Still, his plate discipline declined and his o-swing increased to 42% and he had a paltry 4.3% walk rate. The speed was there, but the power from 2018 didn’t translate as he hit only 9 HR, despite the reduced drag ball.
Record: 4-5
Bold Prediction 10: Adam Frazier (currently 2B 25) finishes the season as a top 10 second baseman.
Frazier’s increased power didn’t translate from 2018 in 2019, as he hit the same number of home runs (10) in nearly twice as many plate appearances. That made him the 29th most valuable 2B, according to the ESPN Player Rater. He is remarkably consistent, though, having posted a .276, .277 and .278 averages over the last three years. Unfortunately, his batting average consistency wasn’t my bold prediction.
Record: 4-6
Bold Prediction 11: Kris Bryant finishes outside the top 10 3B.
This year, Kris Bryant was inexplicably drafted as the #6 3B and #34 player off the board, according to NFBC 2019 ADP. I just don’t understand it. Bryant hasn’t been an elite fantasy performer for three years now, but owners keep investing. Just to rub salt in the wound, if you did draft him–Anthony Rendon was the #7 3B.
Bryant isn’t awful, but he remains overpriced for a player with no elite skill set and minimal contributions in the two scarcest roto categories. According to the ESPN Player Rater, Bryant finished as #13 3B in 2019. Victory!
Record: 5-6
Bold Prediction 11: Luis Severino struggles upon his return from injury, and finishes 2019 with an ERA north of 3.75.
This is a tough one to judge. Throughout draft season and before his injury, I was the low guy on Severino. Having owned him in 2018, I felt how poorly he pitched in the second half of 2018 deeply.
As I dug in, I saw two good but not great pitches, and a not so great changeup. This started giving me visions of Michael Pineda. As a result, if you listened to me, you didn’t own Severino anywhere. Still, it’s hard to judge what he would’ve done, if healthy, so I’m going with a draw.
Final Record: 5-6-1
While I had my fair share of swings and misses in this year’s bold predictions, I also made some solid contact. Despite finishing under .500 with my picks, I feel good about both the process and the result of this year’s predictions. My bold predictions column is one I look forward to writing each year (and one of the few I still write) and I’m looking forward to doing it all over again in 2020. Thanks for reading!