Key Skills
O-swing: 35.5% (last 20) / 38.3% (season)
Contact: 77.5% / 73.7%
Hard: 26.8% / 29.6%
Hard drive %: 10.4% (2018) / 6.0% (2017)
Exit velo on hard drives: 102.0 MPH/ 98.2 MPH
Actual vs. Expected Stats
via xStats.org
AVG: .265 / xAVG: .261
HR: 3 / xHR: 3.3
wOBA: .362 (last 20) / .293 (season)
xOBA: .323 (xwOBA via MLB Savant) / .283
Summary
Rosario has steadily improved his plate discipline and contact skills. While the plate discipline remains below league average, the steady improvement holds up over his 40- and 60-game rolling average, which bodes well for not only his anemic walk rate but also his swinging at better pitches.
Rosario’s contact rate has also improved steadily and has peaked above league average over his last 20 games. His hard hit rate remains well below league average, but he’s driving the ball harder, at better launch angles and with more frequency than last season, as evidenced by his increase hard drive rate (best type of batted ball – low fly balls/high line drives) and increased exit velocity (+3.8 MPH) on those drives. Surprisingly, he boasts a 5.0% barrel/PA.
Over his last 20 games the ground ball rate is up, though his larger sample rolling averages and season stats show it trending downward slightly. Most importantly, his dribbler rate (the poorest hit ground balls) has dropped by 10.3%% over 2017, a huge improvement. Overall his dribbler + ground ball rate is 48.1% in 2018 versus 54.3% in 2017. Clearly he’s taken a step forward in his batted ball quality this season, with the exception of a 4% increase in his pop up rate to 17.8% (exactly league average).
The expected stats generally support his production to date with his actual batting average and home runs lining up with his expected stats per xStats.org. Rosario has been slightly lucky on balls in play recently as his actual wOBA over his last 20 games exceeds his xwOBA of .323 by 40 points, though it has improved from earlier in the season. League average wOBA hovers around .320.
Overall, the trend lines for Rosario point to a player who is improving his approach and contact at the plate as well as the quality of the contact he makes. His stolen bases (3SB/2CS) will have disappointed fantasy owners thus far and he must improve on them to meet fantasy owners’ hopes from draft day.
The low walk rate and OBP limit his run scoring and batting ninth behind the pitcher limits his RBI opportunities. I don’t see any reason why he can’t continue his gradual improvement in batting average and approach 10-12 home runs. At this point, he’s not worth owning in 12-team leagues and should be a bench/injury replacement in 15-teamers with the hope he becomes a viable starter with continued improvement.