A couple thoughts on second-year players, Andrew Benintendi and Whit Merrifield, and their batted ball profiles:
Andrew Benintendi
Benintendi came into the season with lofty expectations for someone with just 118 plate appearances. While he has put up decent numbers so far (.269/30/7/30/8, after two home runs yesterday), fantasy owners and Red Sox management have not had their expectations met. Benintendi recently sat against a lefty, raising the prospect of a regular platoon for the Red Sox left fielder.
The good news for fantasy owners: Benintendi has made some concrete skill gains in 2017. His strikeout rate has dropped due to improved contact and fewer swinging strikes. Benintendi’s walk rate has increased, though he has expanded the strike zone compared to last season so we may see it regress a bit. His hard hit rate has increased slightly.
The major issue for Benintendi thus far has been his batted ball profile. His line drive rate has dropped 8.3% and both his ground ball (up 5.6%) and fly ball rates (up 3.6%) have increased. Given his very strong hand-eye coordination, highlighted by his strong contact gains (up 3.3%) and pedigree, I would expect Benintendi to correct the issue sooner rather than later.
Andrew Benintendi: Percentage of balls in play at key launch anglesUnder 0° | 10° to 39° | Above 39° | |
---|---|---|---|
2017 | 30.6% | 34.7% | 19.4% |
2016 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 22.2% |
2017 +/- | -2.7% | -5.3% | -2.8% |
Source: xStats.org (Go to batter look up tab and search for player name)
A return to hitting more line dine drives should boost his batting average, while not having a detrimental impact on his power. I expect a strong final two-thirds of the season for Benintendi.
Whit Merrifield
Merrifield rides a league-high 19-game hitting streak into play this evening. His strong May and early June success come on the back of 9% drop in his strikeout rate and an increase in hard contact in the air. While the strikeout rate doesn’t reflect a huge change in underlying skills–his swing rate outside the zone and contact rates are up about 1% each–his batted ball profile has changed fairly dramatically.
Whit Merrifield: Percentage of balls in play at key launch angles10° to 19° | 19° to 26° | 26° to 39° | |
---|---|---|---|
2017 | 19.2% | 5.0% | 17.5% |
2016 | 14.1% | 8.7% | 11.2% |
2017 +/- | +5.1% | -3.7% | +6.3% |
Source: xStats.org (Go to batter look up tab and search for player name)
Between 10° and 39° in 2017, batters have a .453 BABIP in 2017 and Merrifield has increased the number of batted ball in this zone by 7.7% overall, including a 5.1% increase in batted balls between 10° and 19°, which have a league-wide BABIP of .700. Obviously different buckets within those broad launch angles have different BABIPs, but it’s within these launch angles that most damage occurs, whether it’s high BABIPs in the lower launch angles or more power in the higher ones.
The result of the changes in Merrifield’s batted ball profile is a .332 xBABIP, which compares favorably to his current .319 BABIP. The batting average seems relatively sustainable, though it may drop when his strikeout rate creeps up (the change in contact and plate discipline do not justify a nearly 9% decrease in strikeout rate).
Merrifield’s added power also seems legit. His six home runs come off 6.6 xHR and his exit velocity has increased by 2.7 mph within the 26° to 39° launch angle. His hard hit fly ball rate sits at a strong 48.8%. Those factors, coupled with the 6.3% increase in batted balls within the key home run launch angle reflects a good recipe for improved power.
Increases in batted balls at key launch angles have helped propel Merrifield’s strong start. While it remains to be seen if he can sustain the changes, his strong performance is not the result of luck. He represents a strong pickup for fantasy owners and should produce mid-teens home runs and close to 20 stolen bases with a strong batting average. He could also be a decent source of runs, if the Royals join the rest of the planet in realizing Alcides Escobar should not be their leadoff hitter.
Related articles: Fantasy Batflips: Devon Travis and Eric Thames