Fantasy owners know Paul Goldschmidt is good. The first baseman has been a consistent fantasy performer since making his debut in 2011 and is one of the few elite five-category contributors. I raised some concerns about Goldy’s 2016 second half and even made a bold prediction that he would finish outside the top five first basemen this year. Right now he is top five… in all of fantasy baseball.
All of this doesn’t make him very interesting; in fact, Goldschmidt has been boringly consistent for the past five seasons. So what makes him the most interesting man in baseball in 2017? Goldy’s shifting skills below the surface.
Hard Hit Rate Returns
Last year, Goldschmidt posted his lowest hard hit rate since his abbreviated rookie season. His solid but unspectacular 37.5% hard hit rate was not what fantasy owners expected from their first round draft pick in 2016. Well, the hard contact has returned.
Goldy’s hard hit rate currently sits at 48.4%, an increase of 10.9% from last season. Not surprisingly, he currently sits ninth in average exit velocity (93.3 mph) and 13th in average exit velocity on fly balls and ground balls (98.7 mph). He also has nine barrels thus far and his four home runs are far less than his 6.5 xHR, according to xStats.org.
Pull Rate Hits Career Peak
Goldschmidt is combining the stellar hard hit rate with a career high pull rate thus far (45.2%). While it’s early in the season, his 20-game rolling average on April 20 equaled the previous high for his career. He’s also pulling balls in the air at a rate 10.2% higher than last season (34.8%). This bodes well for his power numbers, if it does indeed reflect a conscious shift in approach to the path of least resistance for home runs (hard hit pulled fly balls).
Batted Ball Profile Up and Down
Goldy’s batted ball profile is where it starts to get interesting. His line drive rate is at a career worst 20-game rolling average and only at 14.5% for the season, as he’s swapped line drives for fly balls and a few ground balls. He continues to hit far more ground balls than ideal for a power hitter at nearly 50% of his batted balls, so it will be important for him to maintain the strong hard hit rate to make the most of his elevated contact. So far the shift in batter ball profile hasn’t impacted his strong BABIP skills (career .356), as his .362 BABIP comes on a strong .342 xBABIP.
Are Goldy’s contact issues a red flag or new approach?
Goldy’s contact rate has take a big drop
A number of players have made a shift in their approach recently, giving up some contact to focus on hard contact. Freddie Freeman is the first who comes to mind, as his contact rate dropped about 5% from 2015 to 2016 while his hard contact and fly ball rates improved by about the same amount. We know how that’s turned out.
Goldschmidt may be taking a similar approach, as all his contact rates are down considerably. His contact rate in the zone is down 4.1% to 80.3% (164 out of 186 qualified batters) and his contact rate overall is also down 4.1%. At the same time, his swinging strike rate is up to 10.2% (graph below). He’s managed to keep a low strikeout rate at 16.3% so far, but, if the contact issues continue, his strikeout rate should move north of previous marks (career 21.9% strikeout rate on 8.9% swinging strike rate), which will impact his batting average considerably.
Good, Bad or Too Early?
What we don’t know–and what makes him so interesting–is whether the shifting skills are indeed a conscious decision by Goldschmidt, early-season variance or a red flag. The combination of hard hit and fly ball rate increases and contact drop could point toward a change in approach to maximize hard contact, while the low line drive rate (since the second half of last season), increased ground ball rate and contact issues, particular in the strike zone, raise some red flags.
Whichever side you land on or if you think it’s somewhere in the middle (always the most likely explanation), it makes Goldschmidt the most interesting man in baseball at the moment.
Bonus Interesting Chart: 2017 Home/Road Splits
This is probably just variance, but it’s definitely interesting:
Paul Goldschmidt 2017
Home/Road SplitAVG | R | HR | RBI | Hard hit % | Pull % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home | .444 | 15 | 4 | 17 | 53.9% | 35.9% |
Away | .152 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 39.1% | 60.9% |