On Friday, the Chicago White Sox signed Welington Castillo as a free agent after just one season in Baltimore. From a fantasy perspective, the move from Camden Yards to Comiskey (sorry, Guarantee Rate!) Park represents a slight drop in terms of park factors according to both ESPN and Baseball Prospectus, but reasons for optimism still exist.
Overall
BatFlip Profile: Welington Castillo 2018PA | AVG | OBP | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 Stats | 365 | .282 | .323 | 44 | 20 | 53 | 0 |
2017 Stats/PA | --- | .282 | .323 | 12.1% | 5.5% | 14.5% | 0% |
Z-score (Stats/PA)* | --- | 0.54 | -0.13 | -0.14 | 1.16 | 0.68 | -0.82 |
Stats from: Fangraphs.com and xStats.org
*Z-score is the number of standard deviations a player is above or below the mean. These z-scores are based on the mean and standard deviation of non-pitchers with at least 50 PA in 2017.
Castillo is an underrated fantasy asset at a shallow position with a strong batted ball profile for power and the potential to improve his batting average and on-base percentage. The knocks on Castillo have been his health and the combination of weaker production against right-handed pitchers and below-average defensive skills, which have made it challenging to get enough plate appearances to merit catcher 1 status in fantasy.
Thankfully, Castillo improved his defense last season, as Baseball Prospectus had him ranked 9th in catcher defense. The improved defense boosts Castillo’s chances of reaching 400 plate appearances batting in the middle of the White Sox’s decent offensive core.
Roster Resource has the former Orioles backstop slotting in 5th behind Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia and Yoan Moncada, which–when combined with his above average home run rate–should help him maintain an above average rate of RBI per plate appearance. Castillo’s lack of speed and league average OBP should limit his run total and one stolen base should make fantasy owners happy.
Bottom line: Castillo is a top 10 catcher in Chicago who should contribute batting average, home runs and RBI without hurting you too much in OBP and runs. His contributions in batting average, in particular, help him stand out among many of the back-end catcher 1s.
Batting Average & OBP
Welington Castillo 2018: AVG & OBP SkillsAVG | OBP | BABIP | Contact % | O-swing% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 Stats | .282 | .323 | .336 | 76.2% | 28.4% |
2017 xStats | .279 | .322 | .328 | --- | --- |
MLB Average | .260 | .329 | .301 | 77.5% | 29.9% |
Stats: Fangraphs.com and xStats.org
Castillo’s batted ball profile, contact skills and plate discipline support his above average batting average. He’s had a strong line drive rate the past two years and his hard hit rate (39% in 2017 and second among catchers) has been well above average for three consecutive seasons, both of which contribute to his above average BABIP.
At the same time, his contact skills and plate discipline point to the possibility for improvement in his strikeout and walk rates. In his last 30 games of 2017, Castillo’s rate of swinging at pitches outside the zone dropped to 24% (league average is 29.9%) while his hard hit rate surged to 46.7% (league average 31.8%). Whether it’s the product of small sample size or Castillo hitting a new level, it’s an intriguing combination.
Steamer Projection: .246
My Take: I think Castillo maintains the improved batting average and finishes the year with a similar average to 2017 (.282).
Runs & RBI
Castillo should maintain an above average RBI rate given his solid batting average, strong power stroke and likely position in the White Sox lineup. He’s also leaving a team in the Orioles with the second worst OBP (.320) for spots 2-5 in the batting order.
Castillo could see some regression in his runs per plate appearance, since the White Sox lack the power of the Orioles lineup, he isn’t particularly quick and his OBP needs some work. Still, his league average but improving eye could help him get on base more. Coupled with the likelihood of additional at bats with the White Sox and he could reach or surpass last year’s total.
Steamer Projection: 40 runs and 43 RBI
My Take: Again, I’m taking the over. Health is a factor, but with 400 plate appearances I can see him putting up 50 runs and 60 RBIs.
Home Runs
Yadier Molina shifts his approachPA | Hard Hit % | FB% | Hard Hit FB% | Barrels/PA | Balls 19-39°/PA (AEV) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 Before 6/18 | 236 | 34.7% | 33.9% | 37.5% | 3.8% | 19.1% (90.2) |
2017 After 6/18 | 311 | 37.9% | 39.8% | 48.0% | 5.5% | 23.5% (93.0) |
Stats: Fangraphs.com, xStats.org & Baseball Savant
*99.2% of home runs in 2017 came between 16-42°
Everything in Castillo’s profile supports his 2017 power surge. The new White Sox catcher hits the ball hard in the air (48.3%, sixth among catchers) and had the fourth highest barrel rate among catchers with at least 50 plate appearances. Part of Castillo’s success in 2017–and a reason for optimism in the future–also stems from increasing his fly ball rate while dropping his ground ball rate. His 1.09 GB/FB lines up with his 2014 and 2015 batted ball profiles, with 2016 the outlier at 1.28.
Steamer projection: 15
My Take: Castillo’s power is legit. I’d expect his home run rate to remain strong, with 400 plate appearances producing 20-25 home runs.
Stolen Bases
You aren’t drafting Castillo for stolen bases, since he has two in his last 1,500 plate appearances. You should be happy with one.