It’s January and Matt Wieters is still looking for a home. I used to be a huge fan of Wieters in his pre-MLB days when he put up slash lines like .365/.460/.620 in 250 PA in Double A as a 22 year-old switch-hitting catcher. Since then he’s been a disappointment in fantasy baseball and, despite four all-star appearances, he’s been a disappointment in reality (though that’s probably on us for having too high of expectations).
At first glance, his 2016 fantasy baseball season was mediocre. He finished 12th among catchers in standard 5×5 Yahoo! leagues and while he didn’t hurt you too badly in any categories, he probably didn’t win too many people their fantasy leagues. He finished ranked between 8th and 14th among catchers with 200 or more plate appearances in the counting stats and his .243 average was poor but not abysmal. If anything, you could say he was consistently mediocre. Consistently mediocre is certainly not what fantasy owners and Orioles fans were expecting when he broke into the majors in 2009.
So you can imagine my surprise when I ran a search on Fangraphs’ new split leaderboards trying to identify the 2017 version of the 2016 Daniel Murphy when Wieters’ name popped up. I was looking for players who, like Murphy in late 2015, realized the potential for using their batted ball skills (low K%, high hard hit%) to pull the ball in the air for power (i.e. increased FB%, lower GB/FB ratio as well as increased pull %) but may have flown under the radar until they broke out over a full season.
For reference, take a look at Daniel Murphy’s 2015 and 2016 splits by half season in the table below. When Murphy went on his power spree during the 2015 postseason, most of us probably thought he was on an unprecedented run of luck. You’d be right (hitting 7 home runs in 19 postseason games takes some luck), but you’d also be wrong. Since August, Murphy had been making adjustments to his swing to move from contact hitter to slugger or in his words “trying to do damage” instead of just make contact.
Daniel Murphy Is the New Daniel Murphy
Batted ball profile of contact hitter turned sluggerGB/FB | LD % | GB % | FB % | Pull % | Hard Hit % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st Half (2015) | 1.34 | 24.3% | 43.4% | 32.3% | 38.5% | 29.2% |
2nd Half (2015) | 1.07 | 18.3% | 42.3% | 39.4% | 42.7% | 32.8% |
1st Half (2016) | 0.80 | 22.3% | 34.6% | 43.2% | 40.5% | 38.2% |
(Source: Fangraphs.com)
Now let’s turn back to Wieters and my search for the 2017 version of the 2016 Daniel Murphy. When I ran the split leaderboards with filters of hitters with K% under 15 and a hard hit % above 30% from August 1 through the end of the year, I got the usual suspects and a few surprises (more on other players at a later date), but Wieters stood out. First of all, he was right above Murphy in the list. Second, after reviewing splits for players who you wouldn’t consider to have broken out already, a few things jumped out at me about Wieters. First, his batted ball profile is a thing of beauty: well above average LD% for the past three seasons (25.3%), well below average GB% (37.1%) and an above average FB% (37.6%) with about a league average pull % (38.2%). The second thing that stood out are his 2nd half splits from 2016 and, in particular, his August, September and couple days of October.
Matt Wieters Is the New Daniel Murphy
Batted ball profile of potential into reality?GB/FB | LD % | GB % | FB % | Pull % | Hard Hit % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st Half (2016) | 1.16 | 22.8% | 41.5% | 35.7% | 33.5% | 31.8% |
2nd Half (2016) | 0.71 | 25.6% | 31.0% | 43.5% | 41.4% | 34.3% |
Sept/Oct (2016) | 0.75 | 24.6% | 32.3% | 43.1% | 54.6% | 37.9% |
(Source: Fangraphs.com)
It is fairly clear from Wieters batted ball profile that he likely made some adjustments (I couldn’t find any interviews on record for confirmation) to focus on pulling the ball and hitting it in the air. “Doing damage” as Murphy would say. The results have been mixed, but his September/October stats give reason for optimism.
Wieters’ second half slash line of .227/.294/.399 and wRC+ of 82 leave a lot to be desired, but it also don’t make much sense based on his underlying numbers. In particular, how does someone with his batted ball profile hit .227? Look no further than his second half BABIP of .231. In fact, in virtually every way possible, Wieters was a better hitter in the 2nd half last season. He improved his K% from 22.0% to 14.2%, he increased his ISO from .160 to .172, hit the ball harder (6% drop in soft hit %, 2.5% increase in hard hit %), and increased his LD% and FB% (types of batted balls resulting in the highest % of hits), but saw his BABIP drop from .299 to .231 (an increase in FB% doesn’t necessarily translate to a higher BABIP, since HRs are not counted). Trust the process, right?
As we saw in the table above, Wieters stuck with the process and–after an abysmal July (.117/.194/.133 and a -19 wRC+)–began to see results in August and September/October. Despite a .250 BABIP (Wieters had the worst batting average and BABIP of the 7 players with a LD% above 25% and FB% of above 40% between August 1 and the end of the season), he managed a slash line of .253/.311/.452, an wRC+ of 103 (119 in September/October) and an ISO of .199 (.228 in September/October), hitting 8 HRs, scoring 23 runs and driving in 27 in 181 plate appearances. Those numbers over 464 plate appearances (his total in 2016) would bring his 5 x 5 stat line to .253, 59 runs, 20 HR, 69 RBIs, 0 SBs and inside the top 10 fantasy catchers. Those numbers over the 556 plate appearances per season he averaged from 2010-2013 and we’re at .253, 70 runs, 25 HRs, 83 RBIs and still 0 SBs. Low and behold, we have a top 5 fantasy catcher. Now imagine if he got a little bit more luck and a few more of those batted balls fall into play and he approaches his career BABIP of .286 (a .286 BABIP over his last two months would have given him a .283 batting average).
In closing, Wieters may never hit for average like Daniel Murphy, but his batted ball profile coupled with some adjustments at the plate late in the season make him a valuable low-floor, high-ceiling fantasy baseball catcher that can be had late in drafts and at a low price in auctions. A few things go his way, namely health and a BABIP that better reflects his underlying numbers, and he may even begin living up to his potential. Almost.
Final note: Let’s just say you were a team without a starting catcher, with a strong lineup, a hitter-friendly ballpark and a young rotation in need of a veteran influence (grasping at straws a bit here, since Wieters defense and framing have not been good recently), why not offer Wieters a two-year deal at $13 million per season? Are you listening Arizona Diamondbacks? It would certainly make a lot of fantasy owners happy.