Earlier this week I asked Twitter for players of interest. I already covered Starling Marte and Carlos Gomez here, now it’s time for Christian Yelich.
Batted Ball Profile
Yelich always sports one of the league’s highest ground ball to fly ball ratios (GB/FB). His 2.82 GB/FB in 2016 was actually the lowest of his career by a considerable margin and down from 4.16 in 2015. While the high GB/FB limits Yelich’s home run total, it consistently puts him around the top of the league in BABIP.
As a result of the high BABIP, Yelich is able to maintain a high batting average (.298 in 2016 and .293 for his career) despite striking out at a rate slightly below league average (20.9% in 2,100+ plate appearances). Yelich is also helped by a strong hard hit rate (38.0%) and a nice distribution of ground balls across the field, including an above average rate of ground balls to the opposite field.
Little debate exists about Yelich’s value to batting average for fantasy owners, but an adjustment in his approach in the second half of last season provides reason for optimism for fantasy managers in another category.
Power
Yelich’s home run to fly ball rate (HR/FB) of 23.6% got a lot of attention this offseason, with various analysts debating whether his home run total from 2016 (21) is sustainable. A skill that has me convinced the high HR/FB is for real is Yelich’s 60.7% hard hit rate on fly balls last season, which was third highest among qualified hitters.
In addition to the stellar hard hit fly ball rate, xStats.org gave Yelich 24.4 xHR on the season. Because xStats looks at the likelihood of each individual batted ball going for a home run–based on exit velocity and launch angle–I tend to trust their numbers. That said, Mike Podhorzer’s xHR/FB had Yelich at an expected home run to fly ball rate of 15.3%, which would’ve given him 13.6 HR.
Yelich’s power is where the valuation of his contributions for 2017 differ, but because Yelich is such a good hitter and seems to hit the ball in the air selectively, as seen by the consistent quality of contact on his fly balls, I tend to believe in the 20+ home run power from last season. Moreover, Yelich’s fly ball rate is trending up (see below chart) and he’s too good of a hitter to ignore the fly ball revolution.
As you can see above, there is a clear change in approach toward the end of last year (September 2 to be exact). Not only has Yelich increase his fly ball rate, but he has increased it dramatically to 31.0% on 87 balls in play since making the change. That number is important, since fly ball rate stabilizes at 80 balls in play.
Also of note, Yelich’s HR/FB decreased during those 31 games to 14.8% and his hard hit fly ball rate dropped to 48.0%, though he still managed 4 home runs (on 4.3 xHR), a pace of 20 HR in 155 games. Whether Yelich continues to be a part of the fly ball revolution during 2017 remains to be seen (he currently has a 35.7% fly ball rate in 2017), but the numbers point toward a new approach. If he does maintain the higher fly ball rate, fantasy owners should expect at least the same number of home runs from 2016.
Speed
Yelich was 9 for 13 on stolen bases in 2016, not a great rate, and a decline from his high of 21 in 2014 and his 16 stolen bases in 2015. Given Yelich will bat in front of Giancarlo Stanton for much of the season, I’m not optimistic of a return to 15-20 stolen bases. The good news is Yelich did steal more bases in the second half of last season and at a better clip (5 of 6). A stolen base total close to 10 sounds right.
Counting Stats
I’m more confident in Yelich’s run totals in 2017 than his RBIs, since he has too fairly low OBP guys batting in front of him in the Marlins lineup in Dee Gordon (.324 career OBP) and JT Realmuto (.321 career OBP). Their speed could be helpful in turning singles and walks into doubles, since neither swings a powerful bat, so 70-80 RBI seems like a reasonable projection. If Stanton can stay relatively healthy this year, Yelich could return to 90+ runs with his high batting average and .368 career OBP.
Conclusion
Yelich should contribute in all five categories of 5×5 leagues in 2017, with solid home run, RBI and steals totals and strong contributions in batting average and runs. Fantasy owners also shouldn’t be surprised if Yelich takes his power to the next level in 2017 due to the large increase in his fly ball rate at the end of last year, though it may come at the expense of some points on his batting average.