Nothing in fantasy baseball is quite as exciting as reading a great piece of analysis that sheds additional light on the game we love. Below are some articles I’ve really enjoyed over the past week, including links to the original source and author(s). These articles are the fantasy writer’s equivalent of a bat flip (or a two-handed bat flip if you’re Asdrubal Cabrera).
“Embrace the barrel, baseball’s newest statistic” by Casey Boguslaw of ROBaseball.com (@caseyboguslaw)
Great article that looks at the “barrel” statistic developed by MLB.com using Statcast data to identify the best hit balls (using exit velocity and launch angle) and how it can be used to better understand pitchers. The author shares a new statistic, called BarrelFIP, which substitutes barrels for home runs to evaluate pitchers’ field independent pitching (FIP) performance.
“The updated xstats and their year-to-year correlations” by Andrew Perpetua of Fangraphs/xStats.org (@derpymets)
I used xstats.org–a publicly-available expected stats website–a ton last year to evaluate players and try to gauge who might be under or overperforming their underlying statistics. Based partially on data from the website (especially difference between SLG and xSLG), I took a chance on Kendrys Morales down the stretch, which paid off big. The article evaluates the underlying xstats model and its correlation from year-to-year. Not only is it an interesting read, but it demonstrates Perpetua’s commitment to continually evaluating and improving the model, which makes him one of my favorite writers and analysts and why I trust xstats.org.
“Fanatasy Rankings Prep (Part 1 of 3)” by Jeff Zimmerman of Fangraphs/BaseballHeatMaps.com (@jeffwzimmerman)
“Fantasy Rankings Prep (Part 2 of 3)” by Jeff Zimmerman of Fangraphs/BaseballHeatMaps.com (@jeffwzimmerman)
“Fantasy rankings Prep (Part 3 of 3)” by Jeff Zimmerman of Fangraphs/BaseballHeatMaps.com (@jeffwzimmerman)
Three-part series from 2014 where Zimmerman lays out how he prepares for fantasy drafts and develops his own player rankings that are customized to take into account a number of key factors, including type of league, position scarcity, playing time and standings gain points (a measurement of the value of each fantasy baseball statistic based on its relative value toward you gaining points in your league’s standings). Very interesting and comprehensive look at how preparing for your draft and season can give you a considerable advantage over others in your league.
“Introducing xFantasy: Translating hitters xStats to fantasy” by Ryan Brock at Fangraphs Community and Harperwallbanger.com (@harperwallbang)
Post looks at the implications of xStats data on fantasy baseball and player projections, including a really interesting and applicable analysis of the impact batting order has on runs and RBIs per plate appearance. Brock uses the formulas he’s developed for each traditional 5×5 fantasy baseball offensive category (AVG, R, RBI, HR, SB) to project players and auctions values for next year, including over and underrated players.
Thanks for reading the first ever Fantasy BatFlips post at BatFlip Crazy. I hope these articles brings some value to you and your fantasy baseball team. If you have a recommendation for an article I should read and share, please contact me.