A few weeks ago, I signed up to participate in a series of early mock drafts with other fantasy baseball analysts appropriately called #2EarlyMock.
Before getting into my strategy for the draft and analysis of my 1-26 picks (don’t worry, I’ll spread it out over a few articles), I want to thank Justin Mason of Friends with Fantasy Benefits for giving me the opportunity to participate. Not many analysts in the fantasy sports industry know much about my work or the blog, but Justin didn’t think twice about allowing me to participate. Thanks, Justin!
Heading into the draft, I had a few major priorities:
Establish a solid foundation of batting average and speed early. Speed and batting average are scarce. Even more scarce are players with average and speed who don’t hurt you in a number of categories (i.e. Billy Hamilton in batting average, RBI and home runs).
Draft one of the top four starting pitchers. The only starting pitchers I trust to take early heading into 2018 are Scherzer, Kluber, Kershaw and Sale. If I miss out on those four, I’ll wait and binge on high upside starters later. I just don’t see much value in paying a premium for the second tier (Bumgarner, Sydergaard, Strasburg, DeGrom).
Target mid-round pitchers with high upside, but low innings/experience concerns. Whether or not I draft a first tier starter, I know I’ll be going for pitchers who display elite skills but come with inexperience or injury concerns like Rich Hill, Luis Castillo and Zack Godley. Pitcher health has become a crapshoot and I’m betting on skills.
More than in past years, your draft position in 2018 (at least in 15 team leagues) will dictate a lot of your strategy in team construction. As I go through my picks, I’ll emphasize the reasons I chose who I did (and who else I was considering) from both a player skill and overall strategic perspective.
For those interested, you can see the full mock draft here.
Rounds 1-5
Jose Altuve (1.2) (ADP over four #2EarlyMock drafts: 2)
Picking Altuve second overall after Mike Trout was the easiest choice I made in the draft. A tougher decision would’ve been drafting first and deciding between Trout and Altuve. I likely would’ve gone with Trout, but Altuve’s slight edge in stolen bases and four consecutive seasons with a batting average at or above .313 will make it a challenging decision for fantasy owners in 2018 drafts with the privilege of going first.
Below I’ve created a table with Altuve’s four-year and two-year averages in 5×5 categories.
Jose Altuve: Two and Four Year AveragesAVG | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
4-year Average | .334 | 97.75 | 17.5 | 75.5 | 39 |
2-year Average | .341 | 110 | 24 | 88.5 | 31 |
Source: Fangraphs.com
Altuve’s numbers are trending up. His two-year averages are better than his four-year averages in four of the five categories. In the fifth, stolen bases, Altuve has still averaged 31 stolen bases the past two season and had more in 2017 than 2016. He shows no sign of slowing down in a dynamic Houston offense.
Gary Sanchez (2.29) (ADP: 28.75)
The challenge with having one of the first few picks in a 15-team league is it most likely eliminates the possibility of drafting one of the top four starting pitchers. I had hoped Corey Kluber would fall to me here, but he got snapped up two picks earlier at 27. I don’t expect him to make it this far in most drafts.
Kluber’s ADP of 20 over the four #2EarlyMock draft will be closer to his spring ADP and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him go a few picks higher. I hope to own a lot of Kluber heading into 2018, since I think he represents the best value among the elite starting pitchers going an average 5.5 spots behind Chris Sale and 11.5 behind Kershaw.
Altuve and Kluber would’ve been a dream start. Instead, I had to make a decision about whether to go with a second tier pitcher or continue building my offense. Madison Bumgarner was the only starting pitcher I considered in this spot, but his uninspiring return from injury and the poor Giants team behind him gave me more confidence in other options.
Sanchez was the player I coveted. Not only does he play a position with a dearth of fantasy talent, but he accumulates more plate appearances than most catchers because of his frequent DH responsibilities. Despite missing an entire month of the season through injury, he was one of only five catchers with more than 500 plate appearances. A full season without injury and Sanchez would likely lead all catchers in plate appearances by a considerable margin and post the best fantasy stats.
Gary Sanchez: 2017 Stats vs. xStatsAVG | OPS | wOBA | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017 Stats | .278 | .876 | .368 | 33 |
2017 xStats | .293 | .889 | .373 | 30.7 |
Source: Fangraphs.com and xStats.org
I also think Sanchez has the potential to add a higher batting average to his game. His expected batting average this past season, according to xStats.org, was .293, slightly above where Sanchez actually finished. He made slight gains overall in increasing his contact rate and reducing his swinging strike rate in 2017, but those improvements increased toward the end of the season.
Elvis Andrus (3.32) (ADP: 47.75)
Andrus turned out to be a reach compared to the other mock drafts, where he went as high as 62 and no lower than 46. Picking near the turn, I knew I’d watch a lot of talent go off the board by my next pick at 59. I went with Andrus for a few reasons.
First, I don’t love the options at shortstop. Turner, Correa, Lindor and Seager had already gone in the draft, leaving Andrus, Bregman and Segura as the only higher tier shortstops of interest. Waiting to get Bregman at 59 or 62 might’ve made sense, since I absolutely love his skills, but Andrus’ consistent speed (24-27 stolen bases the past four seasons) won me over.
Second, and most importantly, I believe in Andrus’ growth as a hitter. It’s hard to believe, but Andrus only just turned 29. His power may be slightly inflated (20 home runs compared to 16.9 xHR), but he plays in a great home run park and saw increases in his hard hit rate (3.4%), fly ball rate (3%), hard hit fly ball rate (4.2%) and the rate of hard hit fly balls he pulls (up 12.7%) in 2017 compared to 2016. His batting average the past couple years sit right below and above .300.
Finally, with his speed, .350ish OBP and position in the middle of the Rangers lineup, I’d expect him to continue putting up run totals near triple digits and decent RBI totals, particularly for a player at his position. All told, he’s very likely to make strong contributions in at least four categories and I’d say likely to contribute at least above average production in all five.
The other two players I considered with the pick were Brian Dozier and Daniel Murphy, but Andrus’ speed and batting average won out over Dozier while Murphy’s injuries and decline in some key skills later in the year made me a bit weary. I would’ve considered Bumgarner in this spot, had he made it past the turn, but didn’t have any interest in taking Sydergaard, Strasburg and other Tier 2 pitchers this early in the draft.
Eric Hosmer (4.59) (ADP: 69)
When I started the draft, I had no intention of drafting Hosmer. I didn’t own him in any leagues this season and hadn’t researched him in depth. As my pick approached, I was hoping one of the second tier pitchers (Greinke, Carrasco, Darvish or Ray) fell. Once that dream ended, I researched the next group of hitters.
Hosmer jumped out. Over the second half of 2017, he saw huge skill gains in contact and plate discipline. The improved skills bode well for his continued success in batting average and his ball in play also supported a batting average above .300 (.305 xAVG).
Hosmer gets a bad rap for his high ground ball rate because it caps his power. While that’s a fair critique of Hosmer, I would argue that the same low fly ball rate–coupled with the high ground ball rate and league average or higher line drive rate–helps support his elevated BABIP and batting average.
In a lot of ways that skill is more valuable in fantasy baseball than the home runs and related counting stats because it represents the difference between his .318 batting average in 2017 and his .277 career batting average heading into 2017.
Throughout the early rounds of the draft, I placed additional emphasis on batting average, since I feel a lot more confident picking up power later in the draft than I do about finding high average hitters who don’t hurt me in other categories. Hosmer’s 25 home runs (23.7 xHR) playing half his games in Kaufman Stadium also makes me confident he can meet or exceed that number in a new ballpark (assuming he signs with a new team). My guess is he also sees a boost in counting stats, particularly RBIs, moving out of Kansas City and their fourth-worst .316 OBP for hitters 1-3 in their lineup.
James Paxton (5.62) (ADP: 73.5)
The choice: James Paxton or Justin Verlander. More than in previous seasons, next year (as you’ll see from my draft) I don’t mind having guys who will provide 130-150 innings of terrific production and back-filling through the waiver wire and emerging talent. This year saw the fewest number of pitchers reach 180 innings pitched in a season, with only 35 pitchers reaching the mark and only 17 of those posting a sub-4.00 ERA while doing so.
When Paxton pitched in 2017 he provided production matched by only the top tier of starting pitchers. Among pitchers throwing at least 136 innings (his total), only eight (including Paxton) did so with a sub-3.00 ERA and a strikeout rate above 28%. Nor surprisingly, they were all drafted before Paxton in the #2EarlyMock.
After completing the draft, I combined the 2017 numbers for Paxton and my last pitcher drafted, Collin McHugh, to see how their combined production stacked up with Verlander. I then did the same for my reserve round pitcher, Robert Stephenson.
As you’ll note below, the Paxton and McHugh combination matched up well, while Paxton and Stephenson did not (though I drafted Stephenson because I expect more next season, including a sub-5.63 BB/9).
Paxton & McHugh vs. VerlanderIP | ER | BB+H | K | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Paxton | 136 | 45 | 150 | 156 |
McHugh | 63.1 | 25 | 82 | 62 |
IP | ERA | WHIP | K | |
TOTAL | 199.1 | 3.16 | 1.16 | 218 |
Verlander | 202 | 3.36 | 1.17 | 219 |
IP | ER | BB+H | K | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Paxton | 136 | 45 | 150 | 156 |
Stephenson | 84.2 | 44 | 134 | 86 |
IP | ERA | WHIP | K | |
TOTAL | 220.2 | 3.63 | 1.29 | 242 |
Verlander | 202 | 3.36 | 1.17 | 219 |
Source: Fangraphs.com (Paxton, McHugh, Stephenson & Verlander)
It may be that come spring, I’ll feel more comfortable taking Verlander the Astro (particularly in a 15-team league) and his consistent innings and production. Just like you can’t downgrade guys who throw fewer innings as much in today’s fantasy game, you also have to upgrade the high inning guys who provide volume more than in the past.
One note of caution on Verlander (and a primary reason I’m a bit leery of him) is his reliance in recent seasons on unsustainable strand rates and BABIPs to turn around his seasons. These numbers don’t happen in a vacuum, but the .271 BABIP (.303 xBABIP) is hard to justify given his career high in line drive and hard hit rates as well as a dip in his fly ball rate.
Justin Verlander:
2016 1H: .275 BABIP & 72.7 LOB%
2016 2H: .229 & 90.6%
2017 1H: .316 & 72.1%
2017 2H: .213 & 95.2%#fantasybaseball— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) September 19, 2017
Summary of Rounds 1-5
In general, I feel good about the first five rounds of my #2EarlyMock draft. Picking Altuve, Andrus and Hosmer, accomplished my primary goal of building a solid base of batting average and speed (scarce stats) while the addition of Sanchez helps compensate for the relatively average power of my other three batters and addresses a very scarce position.
My draft position made it nearly impossible to accomplish my second priority of picking one of the top four starting pitchers. Picking James Paxton gives me a second tier ace, albeit one that I should only count on pitching 140 innings next season. I’m confident he’ll replicate the skills and production when healthy, but it means I’ll need to address starting pitcher depth sooner rather than later.
Stay tuned, as over the next couple weeks I’ll follow up with articles analyzing the players and strategy I employed for the remaining 21 rounds.