Over the weekend I followed up on some requests on Twitter and researched a number of players. I wrote a Going Deep article on Evan Longoria and should have one on Jonathan Villar later in the week. Two other players I researched, Devon Travis and Eric Thames, have both had one great month and one terrible month. What should fantasy owners expect the rest of the way?
Devon Travis
Travis has benefited recently from some positive regression, putting up a 1.042 OPS in May after posting a .388 OPS in April. After the major roller-coaster ride of the season’s first two months, Travis’ current stat line reflects the level of production (.742 OPS) I would expect for the rest of the season based on the underlying skills, with a slight bump in batting average from his current .266 (.283 xAVG on .317 xBABIP).
Travis has shown some improvements in his underlying skills, including improved plate discipline (4.8% drop in swing rate on pitches outside the zone to a respectable 31.5%) and a modest 1.8% increase in hard hit rate up to 31.9%. The improved plate discipline hasn’t translated into more walks, unfortunately, and his 3.9% walk rate limits his run scoring potential. His line drive rate has also increased 5.6% to a solid 24.8%.
While the low walk rate limits his run scoring potential, Travis could be an unlikely source of power, since he has raised his hard hit fly ball rate 14.8% to 50.0% in 2017. The increased hard hit fly ball rate helps explain why Travis’ four home runs lag behind his 6.1 xHR this season.
A huge blow to Travis and his fantasy owners comes by way of his new position in the surging Blue Jays lineup. With the return of Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki, it looks like Travis will bat seventh or eighth for the foreseeable future. This will limit his counting stats.
The combination of small improvements and the drop in batting order for Travis have me feeling ambivalent about his fantasy prospects. Expect more of the same, which isn’t exciting but is helpful in deep leagues and serviceable in shallower formats.
Eric Thames
Thames has had the opposite experience as Travis this season, starting off as hot as hot can be and cooling down in the month of May. Hard contact and great plate discipline had personified Thames’ hot start and, while the plate discipline remains elite, the hard contact rate and his contact rate have plummeted.
Thames’ hard contact rate over the last 20 days sits at 33.3% and his overall contact rate during the same period is 63.8%. While Thames has struggled recently with a series of injuries that may explain the dip in performance, those injuries have lingered and it won’t bring any relief to fantasy owners. Thames’ expected stats for each month tell the same story.
Eric Thames
xStats for April & MayxAVG | xOBP | xSLG | xHR | xBABIP | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
April xStats | .294 | .427 | .674 | 9.0 | .296 |
May xStats | .182 | .330 | .289 | 1.5 | .237 |
+/- | -.112 | -.097 | -.385 | -7.5 | -.059 |
Source: xStats.org (go to “batter look up” and search for Thames)
Because we only have two months of recent major league data on Thames, making any broad statements about his ability or future performance is particularly challenging. Still, the drop off in performance in key skills that propelled him to success in April would make me hesitant to take a chance on a rebound. Stay away for now.