In 2016, Kyle Hendricks had an incredible season, finishing 3rd in Cy Young voting behind his teammate Jon Lester and winner Max Scherzer. Hendricks turned terrific command and an ability to induce weak contact from opposing hitters into one of 2016’s best and most surprising seasons for a starting pitcher and made himself the fantasy baseball MVP for a lot of teams. Tyler Anderson got a lot less attention after making his MLB debut in June, putting up solid but unspectacular numbers. If anything, he got the most attention for pitching better at Coors Field than outside of it.
A closer look, however, reveals pitchers who have more in common than their reputations suggest.
Underlying Numbers
Hendricks and Anderson have eerily similar batted ball profiles. They both keep the ball on the ground and were two of the best pitchers at limiting solid contact by opposing hitters, as seen in low average exit velocities overall and on line drives and fly balls. Anderson, however, has better numbers in virtually every category.
2016: Kyle Hendricks vs. Tyler Anderson
Were they separated at birth?GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | Avg. Exit Velo | AEV on LD/FB | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hendricks | 1.55 | 20.2% | 48.4% | 31.3% | 87.2mph (12th) | 90.4mph (15th) |
Anderson | 1.77 | 20.4% | 50.9% | 28.7% | 85.1mph (1st) | 87.7mph (2nd) |
(Sources: Fangraphs and Baseball Savant for exit velocity)
In the Zone
Again, very similar numbers. Anderson has a slightly higher swinging strike % and is better at getting hitters to chase the ball out of the zone, while Hendricks is better at throwing first pitch strikes and slightly better at limiting contact. Nothing really separates the two players here.
PITCHf/x Plate DisciplineO-Swing % | O-Contact % | Contact % | F-Strike % | SwStrike % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hendricks | 30.8% | 63.2% | 76.7% | 68.6% | 10.0% |
Anderson | 32.5% | 62.3% | 78.9% | 64% | 10.7% |
(Source: Fangraphs)
Balls in Play
Here is where Hendricks became a Cy Young contender and Anderson pitches in relative fantasy and real baseball obscurity. It’s not in any of the areas where pitchers have significant control, since their batted ball profiles are so similar and, in many cases, Anderson’s is stronger. Instead the differences lie in the outcomes of the (often weakly hit) batted balls.
BABIP | GBs | LDs | FBs | HR/FB% | Barrels/Batted Ball | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hendricks | .250 | .161 | .625 | .130 | 9.3% | 3.8% |
Anderson | .318 | .233 | .739 | .176 | 12.4% | 3.2% |
(Source: Fangraphs Splits Tool Anderson/Hendricks and Baseball Savant for barrels)
In 2016, the league average BABIP on groundballs was .239, .127 on flyballs and .682 on line drives. On line drives and ground balls, Hendricks beats league averages on balls in play considerably, while Anderson has much higher BABIP on line drives and fly balls than the league average. You may be thinking that Anderson got unlucky or Hendricks got lucky and you may be right on both accounts (based on xstats.org).
2016 xStatsxBABIP | xAVG | xOBP | xSLG | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Hendricks | .269 | .221 | .272 | .338 |
Anderson | .294 | .244 | .289 | .352 |
(Source: xstats.org)
Further research might also suggest something entirely different (and, again, outside of either pitcher’s control): the importance of the defense behind the pitcher.
Hendricks the Fantasy Star, Anderson the Fantasy Streamer
Kyle Hendricks and Tyler Anderson had very different fantasy stat outcomes in 2016 and, for that reason, they are ranked very differently in fantasy baseball (Hendricks is ranked 60-70 generally, Anderson mostly 200+). Hendricks probably outperformed his underlying numbers and benefited from an insanely good defense (I really can’t emphasize how good the Cubs defense was in 2016 on balls in play, more on that below) that ranked first in Defensive Runs Saved (82), not to mention a terrific team and bullpen to boost his win totals. Meanwhile Anderson probably underperformed a little and had a defense behind him that ranked 11th in Defensive Runs Save (11). Colorado’s league average outfield defense (0 DRS) likely didn’t help his BABIP on balls in the air (Colorado had the second highest team BABIP on fly balls).
Fantasy statsIP | W | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hendricks | 190 | 16 | 2.13 | 0.98 | 8.05 |
Anderson | 114.1 | 5 | 3.54 | 1.29 | 7.79 |
(Source: Fangraphs)
Conclusion: Tyler Anderson Is Kyle Hendricks (Without the Defense)
Nothing about Kyle Hendricks being a better fantasy baseball pitcher than Tyler Anderson is surprising. Hendricks has tremendous command, one of the best defenses we’ve ever seen (helping his ERA and WHIP) and plays for a World Series Championship team that scores a lot of runs (yay, wins!). This is reflected in his relatively high fantasy rankings. Anderson has shown a similar skill set to Hendricks in his rookie season, highlighted by his ability to induce very weak contact on all types of batted balls and keep the ball on the ground at a level well-above league average. If he can continue pitching like he has and add a little bit more luck and/or better defense behind him to bring his ERA and WHIP down, he could become a Kyle Hendricks-lite and a steal in 2017 fantasy drafts at 140+ draft spots higher than his pitching twin.
Special Note on Cubs’ Defense on Balls in Play
In researching this post, I came to appreciate more the role that team defense (combination of both defense and positioning) can play in helping pitchers succeed. The 2016 Cubs led the league in BABIP against on every type of batted ball, often by a considerable margin. BABIP versus line drives? Cubs .625 and second lowest Atlanta at .655. BABIP versus ground balls? Cubs .194 and second lowest Cleveland at .211. BABIP versus fly balls? Cubs at .090 and Tampa Bay at .102.
Given that each team faces a different rate of batted ball types, I wanted to find a way (within my very limited skill at such analysis) to demonstrate just how superior the Cubs’ defense was compared to the league, so I took each team’s BABIP against on each type of batted ball and adjusted them to the league average batted ball in play profile (20.7% line drives, 44.7% ground balls, 34.6% fly balls for 2016) to see what each team’s BABIP against would have looked like against a league average batted ball profile (i.e. for Cubs .625 * .207 + .194 * .447 + .090*.364 = .247 or BABIP against adjusted for batted ball type). (Note: I’m not sure if this actually makes sense, statistically, so please let me know if it doesn’t! I’m also sure that someone else has probably done this before and likely in a much more sophisticated way, so apologies in advance for rudimentary analysis).
The results are pretty amazing. The Cubs adjusted BABIP against is .247 and the next best is the Blue Jays at .276. The Diamondbacks are at the other end of the spectrum with a .312 adjusted BABIP against, which may help explain the BABIP struggles of Robbie Ray and others. Anyways, defense matters for pitchers and the Cubs’ defense has turned good pitchers (Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester) into great ones (Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester – – career BABIP of .297 and 2016 BABIP of .255) by limiting BABIP against.
Finally, Hendricks may not have been so lucky–the BABIP of his batted ball profile, using the Cubs’ average on each type of batted ball, is .248.