Yesterday I took us on the first of four adventures in early season BABIP, with a look at hitters who’ve been unlucky on balls in play. Today we take a look at some hitters who’ve been lucky on balls in play so far this season based on important skill indicators. Fantasy owners may want to sell high on these players or, at least, limit expectations moving forward.
Avisail Garcia
We’ll start this adventure with Avisail Garcia and his .457 BABIP. I’ve been listening to people wax romantic about Garcia’s breakout for the past few weeks and I’m getting a little tired of it. I don’t harbor any grudges against Garcia and I hope for his sake that this is, indeed, his breakout, but nothing in his profile points to a change in approach that would support such a high BABIP.
The graph below is a little messy, but it shows how Garcia’s early season batted ball profile compares to past seasons and his career average. Traditional drivers of high BABIPs, like line drive rate, are actually down early this season for the White Sox outfielder, while his fly ball rate–a BABIP suppressor–is up.
Hitting the ball hard, particularly if speed isn’t your forte, is another important BABIP driver, yet Garcia’s hard hit rate is actually down a couple points to 32.7% in 2017. His exit velocity, both overall average exit velocity and average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls, puts him in the middle of the pack in major league baseball. That explains why his xBABIP (.349) is more than 100 points below his current BABIP.
Garcia’s BABIP graph is a good metaphor for his season and a warning for fantasy owners. Think of his BABIP as Splash Mountain at Disneyland or any one of your other favorite amusement park rides. Generally speaking, the biggest drop and most exciting part of the ride comes right at the end. Right now Garcia’s BABIP is heading up that mountain and about to crest before falling precipitously back to earth. The major difference between your experience on the roller coaster and your experience on the Avisail Garcia BABIP roller coaster will be the amount of fun you have going down. Sell now.
Starlin Castro
Castro owners are probably pretty excited about the shortstop’s performance so far. He’s providing some pop from the middle infield (4 HR), some solid counting stats and a sterling batting average of .357. Unfortunately, that’s where most of the good news ends, since the underlying skills point toward a sharp decline from his current .396 BABIP.
Castro’s career BABIP of .320 is well above league average, which generally hovers around .300. The drop from .396 to .320 isn’t too terrible, particularly this early in the season, but Castro’s batted ball profile points toward a more dramatic decline.
Castro’s line drive rate has dropped 6.7% in 2016 down to 14.0%, while both his overall fly ball rate (13.7% increase on 2016) and infield fly ball rate (20% of all fly balls and more than double his 8.3% career average) have surged. Both are BABIP killers.
As a result of the new fly ball approach, Castro may hit a few more home runs in 2017, but his BABIP will likely take a hit. His xBABIP sits at .250, nearly 150 points from his current mark. Try to take advantage of the quick start and use Castro as bait for buying low on someone else.
Xander Bogaerts
Bogaerts has been a BABIP stud the last couple years and boasts a .339 career BABIP. In 2017, the figure sits at .388 and the result is a strong .333 batting average. There are some concerning signs for the Red Sox shortstop, however, as some key BABIP and overall hitting indicators raise red flags about his performance moving forward and the possibility he may be injured.
First, and most importantly, Bogaerts’ hard hit rate is down 10.2% in 2017 and, as the graph above highlights, that 10% has shifted directly over to his soft hit rate, which sits at 28.6%. Not surprisingly, Bogaerts’ exit velocity is down at 85.6mph compared to 89.7% in 2017 and he hasn’t hit a single barrel in more than 60 plate appearances.
Bogaerts’ spray chart also raises concerns, since he’s pulling the ball 20% less than in 2016, instead hitting the ball more regularly up the middle and to the opposite field. The Red Sox shortstop may be struggling with an injury, which would help explain the weak hitting but won’t do much to help the drop in fantasy performance that will come when Bogaerts’ BABIP luck runs out. His xBABIP sits at .240.
As the graph above highlights, Bogaerts’ hard hit and soft hit rates have fluctuated similarly before, so it may be nothing, but fantasy owners should consider the red flags and potential that an injury is hampering the shortstop’s production. Hand injuries can linger, so you may want to at least consider shopping Bogaerts while his value remains high. Maybe look for an owner who is desperate for batting average help.
Thanks for reading part two of our four-part adventures in early season BABIP series. We’ll be back Wednesday or Thursday with part three: pitchers who should rebound with a little more luck on balls in play.