Everyone had high expectations for Trevor Story coming into the season. I definitely had high expectations for Story. He hit the ball very hard. He hit the ball very hard in Coors Field. And I had high expectations because the skills seemed to improve as the 2016 season progressed with his walk rate increasing and the high strikeout rate falling.
Flip to 2017 and the 2016 Story disappeared. When Story went on the disabled list on May 9, he was batting .180 with a 37.5% strikeout rate and a way-too-high 63.5% fly ball rate that would keep anyone’s batting average below the Mendoza Line (just ask Ryan Schimpf).
When Story returned from the disabled list on May 24, fantasy owners hopes rekindled and they waited for the 2016 Story to return. They waited and waited and waited until they almost couldn’t wait anymore. The All-Star Break came and many asked whether they should look elsewhere at shortstop down the stretch. Then Story began hitting the ball hard again. Very hard.
Trevor Story Hard Hit RateBefore DL (5/9) | Since DL (5/24) | Since ASB (7/14) | |
---|---|---|---|
Hard Hit % | 34.9% | 36.0% | 68.2% |
Hard Hit Fly Ball % | 42.5% | 37.0% | 66.7% |
Source: Fangraphs.com
Since the calendar turned to July, Story has a 47.2% hard hit rate. Since the All-Star Break, he has a 68.2% hard hit rate. The hard hit rate will make Story owners very happy. What should also make them happy is his batted ball profile, which began improving well before the All-Star Break.
Story has dropped his fly ball rate over the last 40 games while increasing both his ground ball and line drive rates considerably. The line drive rate sits at 24.1% over his last 40 games, well above league average.
Until he can get his strikeout rate under control, Story will rely on very high BABIPs to maintain anything above a mediocre batting average. Line drives and hard ground balls are the key to an elevated BABIP, as is keeping infield fly ball rates (the equivalent of batted strikeouts) low. Story has done all of this since returning from the DL.
The launch angle chart below highlights the difference between Story before his injury and after his injury. His Mendoza Line-inducing fly ball rate has dropped and batted balls between 0° and 20° have replaced them. Story has also hit very few batted balls above 40° since the injury, a launch angle above which a minuscule amount of batted balls go for hits.
Now that Story’s hard hit rate has begun catching up with his improved batted ball profile, the sky is the limit for his production the rest of the season. Story has all the environmental factors working in his favor–a loaded lineup and an ideal home park.
One key change in Story’s approach that mirrors his increased hard hit rate (and contact rate) is an increase in swing rate at pitches inside the zone. Over the last 7 games (obvious small sample size warnings), Story has the highest 7-game swing rate at pitches inside the zone (82.6%) of his career.
His skills still need some work. The strikeout rate remains elevated and he continues to swing and miss too often, but he also had the same struggles last season and provided elite production. The sample size is small at this point, but it looks as though the hard-hitting Trevor Story, the one we expected all along, has returned.