Infield is as deep in 2017 as any year I can remember with all four infield positions having tremendous depth after the Year of the Second Baseman in 2016. Fantasy owners will have important decisions to make about which infield positions to target early and which players represent good value at their current draft positions and can be had later in drafts. Below I’ve identified one player at each infield position, plus catcher, who I believe are undervalued fantasy infielders based on their current ADP on NFBC and will bring their fantasy owners a profit in 2017.
C – Matt Wieters (200)
I’ve written a lot about Wieters and what I believe is a new hitting approach he showed off at the end of last season. Now all he needs to do is find a team with a solid lineup and park that doesn’t hurt his offense. The latest rumors include the Rays and Nationals, with the latter obviously preferable. He’ll sign at some point; let’s hope it’s a place that will allow him to showcase his offensive skills.
1B – Hanley Ramirez (82)
Hanley absolutely crushed the ball in the second half of last season, as he increased his fly ball, pull and hard hit rates to put up a .284/.354/.593 slash line, including 22HRs and 63RBIs in 271 PA. It appears Hanley is finally healthy after injuring his shoulder in 2015, and he leveraged his second half (146 wRC+) to finish ranked 44th for the season in Yahoo! leagues. Despite the turnaround, he is going as the 9th first baseman off the board, 24 picks behind Wil Myers (more on him in my infield flops article) and 19 behind Jose Abreu. While injuries will always be a concern, given his age and injury history, he managed 620 PA in 2016 and even stole nine bases. He’ll likely bat fifth behind four hitters with OBPs above .350. He’s a steal at his current ADP.
2B – Jason Kipnis (94)
I’ve always loved Kipnis, since he’s one of those balanced players that give you something in every 5×5 category. Despite another strong season where he finished 66th overall in Yahoo! leagues, Kipnis remains underappreciated. In 2016, he changed his approach to focus on generating more power by increasing his pull rate and elevating and driving the ball. While he saw his K% increase and his average drop to .275, he was rewarded with 14 more home runs than 2015 (23 to 9), an increase in runs and RBIs, and continued to contribute speed with 15 stolen bases. The power seems legit–his 23 home runs align with xStats.org’s 22.4 xHR–and fantasy owners will gladly exchange a small drop in batting average for the increased production generated by his new approach.
Jason Kipnis' New Approach
GB/FB | LD+FB % | Pull % | Hard Hit % | HR/FB | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 1.50 | 55% | 35.3% | 30.6% | 6.9% | 9 |
2016 | 1.04 | 61.1% | 40.8% | 35.7% | 13.1% | 23 |
SS – Trevor Story (32)
Story is fairly divisive in fantasy baseball circles heading into 2017. Count me as someone firmly in the pro-Story camp. The primary reasons people are down on Story generally involve either his return from injury or his high K%. While the injury is certainly a legitimate reason for shying away from Story in 2017 (Bryce Harper did have a career year in 2015 after suffering a similar injury in 2014), I tend to disagree with those who think Story is a free swinger who will always post high strikeout rates that limit his ceiling. After posting strikeout rates above 30% in his first two months of 2016, Story dropped his strikeout rate below 30% in June and July. While strikeout rates in the high 20s are nothing to write home about, the improved strikeout rate coincided with an overall improvement in his management of the strike zone as seen by an increase in his walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K). In April and May, Story had a BB/K of 0.24 and 0.21, which improved to 0.36 and 0.31 in June and July. If Story can manage the strike zone in a similar fashion in 2017 and continue to show improvement in his strikeout rate, his elite batted ball skills should make him a fantasy baseball star, if he isn’t one already.
How elite are Story’s batted ball skills? Up until his injury on July 30, Story was second in the league with a hard hit rate of 44.9% among hitters with 200 or more plate appearances. Among hitters with 100 or more fly balls, Story’s hard hit rate of 52.6% was fourth in the league and he had the furthest average distance on fly balls according to both baseball heat maps and Statcast data. In other words, the power and batted ball skills to support a very high BABIP are real (his xBABIP was .362, according to xStats, resulting in an xAVG of .284 despite the high strikeout rate). He also steals some bases and plays in Coors Field. Sign me up in the late second, early third round.
Third base is a deep position in 2017 and one I’m willing to wait for unless I get Kris Bryant or Nolan Arenado early or Josh Donaldson falls late into the first round (for those who are wondering, I’ve skipped Manny Machado intentionally, since he’s one of my flops at an ADP of 8). I can think of a handful of guys who I consider undervalued at the position for the production I expect in 2017, including Anthony Rendon (92), Alex Bregman (92), Jose Ramirez (96), Justin Turner (129), Mike Moustakas (201) and Nick Castellanos (206). That’s a lot of value at 3B! I’ve chosen to focus on Jake Lamb, however, because I think he can generate the most value of this group based on the combination of his ADP, track record and ceiling.
2016 was a tale of two seasons for Lamb and–unlike most other players in this article–he struggled mightily in the second half. The turning point for Lamb was July 19, when he injured his hand. Reports described it as a bruise, but he went 0 for 19 slump in his first 4 games after the injury and then skipped games on July 26 and 27 to rest. He played regularly the rest of the season. As the numbers for Lamb clearly Illustrate, everything went wrong after the injury.
Jake Lamb Pre and Post Injury
Lamb suffered a bruised hand on July 19 and never recoveredLD% | Pull % | FB Hard Hit % | Total Hard Hit % | HR/FB | Slash Line | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Before July 19 | 21.0% | 50.4% | 58.1% | 42.0% | 28.4% | .298/.376/.626 |
After July 19 | 12.1% | 32.2% | 44.4% | 35.6% | 12.7% | .179/.270/.344 |
Prior to the injury, Lamb’s was raking (.298/.376/.626) with 52 runs, 21 home runs, 63 RBI and 3 stolen bases in 89 games. He thrived in every part of the strike zone, pulling the ball (50.1% pull rate) with purpose (47.8% hard hit rate) and making up for a ground ball to fly ball rate higher than ideal (1.4) with a likely unsustainable 28.4% HR/FB rate (xStats has him at about 18 xHR up to July 19).
After July 20, Lamb maintained a decent hard hit rate of 35.6%, but his batted ball profile suffered, as he exchanged line drives (8.9% drop from 21.0% to 12.1%) for fly balls. An increase in fly balls is not necessarily a bad thing, but when you only pull 17.5% of them (33.8% in first half) and cannot hit them as hard as before (58.1% hard hit rate on fly balls in first half compared to 44.4% in the second) it results in a .220 second half BABIP and 12.7% HR/FB rate. Based on these numbers and the below zone profiles, it’s clear that Lamb could no longer turn on pitches on the inner half of the plate. When he pulled the ball, it was on the ground (68.8% GB) and weak (31.3% hard hit rate). His exit velocity, as seen below, tells the same tale.
Retelling Jake Lamb’s second half is depressing, so I can only imagine how he felt experiencing it. But the good news is that Lamb has had more than four months to heal the hand and get back to crushing baseballs. We’ve already seen what a healthy Lamb is capable of and there is room for growth. Lamb was quick to change his approach heading into 2016 as a result of changes made by fellow professionals like Josh Donaldson and Statcast data that showed the importance of exit velocity and there is no reason why he shouldn’t also recognize that lowering his ground ball to fly ball ratio will allow him to fully tap into his power. Add AJ Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt to the mix batting behind Lamb in a stacked lineup that plays half its games at Chase Field and the pieces are there for a special season. Obviously this relies on Lamb regaining his first half form, but the possible reward is well worth the relatively minimal risk at an ADP of 148.