Johnny Cueto has struggled in 2017 after years of being Mr. Reliable for fantasy owners. Can fantasy owners still trust Cueto or have his skills deteriorated?
Batted Ball
Cueto’s batted ball profile and the quality of contact he has given up represents the major difference from past seasons. The Giants starter has seen his hard hit rate increase by 9.2% up to a career-high 36.4%. When you dig deeper things get worse.
Johnny Cueto: Percentage of balls in play at key launch anglesUnder 0° | 0° to 10° | 10° to 26° | 26° to 39° | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 25.1% | 21.8% | 26.3% | 14.2% |
2016 | 37.4% | 15.5% | 22.5% | 11.9% |
2017 +/- | -12.3% | +6.3% | +3.8% | +2.3% |
Source: xStats.org (go to “pitcher look up” tab and search for player name)
Cueto has relied in previous seasons on poorly hit ground balls to generate relatively low BABIPs and limit damage. He has induced far fewer such ground balls this season, instead giving up more hard ground balls (0° to 10°) with higher BABIPs and more batted balls in launch angles (19° to 39°) that result in home runs and extra base hits. Note the number of batted balls in Cueto’s 2016 launch angle profile (left) under 0° compared to 2017 (right).
In addition to giving up more ground balls (0° to 10°) and hard drives (19° to 26°), batters have also hit the ball harder at those launch angles by 2.1 mph and 1.5 mph, respectively.
As a result of the change in batted ball profile, Cueto sports a 1.44 home run to fly ball rate (career 0.90), the first time it’s been above 1.00 since 2013. The home runs appear earned, if not lucky, as the 13 home runs he has given up come on 14.2 xHR. Cueto has also had a bit of luck on his BABIP. His .354 xBABIP is well above his actual BABIP of .305. Thing could be a lot worse for Cueto.
Skills
The good news for Cueto’s owners: He has also posted career-highs in positive skills, including swinging strike rate, swing rate outside the zone and contact rate. As a result, the elevated strikeout rate appears sustainable and the walk rate shouldn’t go much higher, since his increase swing rate outside the zone makes up for a decrease in percentage of pitches in the zone. In short: Cueto has gotten hit hard,but hitters have made contact less than in any previous year.
Johnny Cueto: Positive Skill DevelopmentSwStr % | O-swing % | Contact % | |
---|---|---|---|
2017 | 12.0% | 35.4% | 75.8% |
Career High | 11.1% (2013) | 34.9% (2015) | 76.9% (2013) |
Source: Fangraphs
Pitches
So what’s wrong? Two things jump out. The first is velocity. In a year where many pitchers’ velocity has increased, Cueto’s velocity has dropped about 1 mph on each of his offerings. It’s the second consecutive season where this has occurred.
Cueto has also seen changes in his release point this season, in addition to changes in the movement of pitches. xStats.org does a good job outlining some of Cueto’s potential issues in this article, including the loss of spin rate on his fastball. This explanation tends to resonate most with me, since hitters have not only improved their hitting skills and outcomes against the fastball (.227 wOBA in 2016 and .312 wOBA in 2017), but the pitch’s swinging strike rate has also been nearly cut in half from 9.7% to 5.8%.
Meanwhile, Cueto’s changeup has a career high swinging strike rate this season despite a drop in velocity, spin rate and vertical movement. The changeup has still regressed from a batted ball perspective (.255 wOBA in 2016 to .288 wOBA in 2017), particularly on fly balls. Over his career, batters have a 17.1% home run to fly ball rate on the pitch, including 6.3% last season. This year it’s at 55.6%.
Command seems to be the culprit, as the above pitch heat maps highlight. Cueto has generally kept the pitch low and outside the zone, resulting in a career 53.5% ground ball rate on the changeup. In 2017, the ground ball rate sits at 37.3%, which means hitters have gotten the pitch in the air on 63.7% of batted balls, including a 40% line drive rate. That’s a great recipe for damage.
Summary
Cueto’s struggles are real. Batters have hit the ball harder and at better launch angles than previous seasons, resulting in a lot more home runs and an elevated BABIP compared to his career rate. Surprisingly, the improvements in quality of contact has coincided with improved skills that should translate to a career high strikeout rate.
The problem for Cueto seems to rest with a loss in velocity across his pitches and, more importantly, decreased effectiveness of his fourseam fastball. I believe this represents the most significant issue for Cueto, since he has relied in the past on his elite fastball setting up other pitches. The decreased effectiveness of the fastball limits the deception of his out pitch, the changeup.
To make matters worse, Cueto’s changeup has gotten more of the plate, leading to batters hitting the pitch in the air more than at any time in his career. The outcomes on this contact (55.6% home run to fly ball rate) compound the problem.
Cueto has a long track record of success and he has shown the ability to adjust and get creative to improve his performance. You only have to watch his wind up over a few innings to see that. Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect outcomes to improve too much, unless his pitches do. Right now, he seems an awful lot like 2016 Robbie Ray, with a better ballpark and fewer walks.
The elevated strikeout rate and friendly home park (for now) mean Cueto can still deliver some value for fantasy owners, just don’t expect a return to prior seasons until the fastball returns to its past glory.
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