Kendrys Morales is a Blue Jay after signing a three-year deal worth $33 million earlier this winter. I developed an affinity for Morales last year after he helped me secure a championship with a hot streak that started in mid-August and never really ended. When I saw the Morales signing come across my twitter feed, I knew one thing pretty quickly–I am going to own Kendrys Morales in a lot of leagues next year.
Why? I believe Morales underperformed his underlying stats in 2016 and will benefit from a more homer-friendly ballpark and a stronger lineup in Toronto. I also believe he will bring owners tremendous value, as he’s currently slated to go in the middle rounds in 12-team mixed league drafts in 2017. ESPN currently has Morales ranked 155th heading into 2017 and a quick look at other experts confirms that most see him with similar value in drafts (12th to 19th round) and at a $2-6 value in auctions. This may be due in some part to his having DH-only eligibility in a lot of leagues next year, something that could change with Justin Smoak currently penciled in as the starting first baseman for the Blue Jays.
When all is said and done in 2017, I expect Morales to be one of the MVPs of fantasy baseball (tremendous value for the money/draft pick).
Morales’ Underlying Numbers Show He Underperformed in 2016
Despite a torrid end of the season, Morales underperformed relative to his statistical profile in 2016. According to xstats.org, Morales’ batted ball profile points toward a stronger slash line. As the table below highlights, the difference between Morales’ actual and expected 2016 batting average and OBP numbers can be explained by the gap between his actual and expected BABIP. Moreover, while Morales underperformed both years in slugging, he did put up his highest ISO since 2009 last year. One possible explanation for his lower slugging numbers: Morales’ home park for the past two years, Kaufmann Stadium, is one of the great home run suppressors in all of MLB (more on that later).
Kendrys Morales Stats vs. xStats
AVG | OBP | SLG | BABIP | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2016 Stats | .264 | .323 | .469 | .283 |
2016 xStats | .287 | .345 | .544 | .305 |
2015 Stats | .288 | .358 | .487 | .315 |
2015 xStats | .299 | .367 | .525 | .320 |
(Stats: xstats.org)
Morales Hits the Ball Really Hard
In 2016, Morales finished sixth among qualified hitters in hard hit percentage (41.1%) and eighth in exit velocity (93.9 mph) among all batters with more than 190 batted ball events. When you raise the threshold to 300 batted balls, he ranked fourth behind Nelson Cruz (43), Miguel Cabrera (38), David Ortiz (38) and Mark Trumbo (47). The number attached to these names is no longer exit velocity, it’s home runs. Morales finished with 30 home runs in 2016.
One reason for the lower number of home runs could be Morales’ relatively high ground ball rate (44.2%) and ground ball to fly ball ratio of 1.24. It is impossible to hit a home run of the outside-the-park variety when you hit the ball on the ground and you likely won’t see Morales hitting any inside-the-park homers anytime soon. By comparison, Cruz (44.4% and 1.18), Cabrera (41.7% and 1.17), Ortiz (32.8% and 0.73) and Trumbo (39.5% and 0.92) all have stronger batted ball profiles for home run hitters. The Cruz profile is most similar to Morales, but his home run numbers are buoyed by a league leading 99.1 mph exit velocity on fly balls and line drives and, possibly as a result, the third best home run to fly ball rate (26.2%) among qualified hitters.
Morales has a skill that many other big leaguers would love to have–the ability to square up the ball. A slight change in his home run to fly ball rate (19.0%), along with more fly balls in general, and you can see the potential for him to generate elite home run totals.
Change Is Great
The good news for Morales is that his situation has changed for the better and not just slightly. Morales is moving from one of the worst parks for power hitters (Kaufmann Stadium) to one that is above average (Rogers Centre). He is also moving to a team in the Blue Jays that appears to understand that pulling the ball hard and in the air is good. These two factors bode well for Morales’ fantasy value.
First, the literal change of scenery. Rogers Centre outperforms Kaufmann Stadium on most 2016 ESPN Park Factors and 2016 Fangraphs Park Factors, most notably in home runs and power metrics. One key takeaway from these park factors: 12.4% of fly balls in Kansas City went for home runs (as of 8/21 for the 2016 season) while 18.5% of fly balls went for homers in Toronto. Last year Morales hit 158 fly balls. Based on the average home run to fly ball rates of the respective stadiums, this would be 20 home runs in Kansas City and 29 in Toronto. Now that is if Morales was an average major league power hitter, which we know he isn’t. He’s well above average. Now consider that he hit 12 home runs at home in 2016 and 18 on the road in a similar number of plate appearances and his home run to fly ball rate was 24% on the road compared to 14.5% at home. Use that home run to fly ball rate on those 158 fly balls and you’re looking at 38 homers. As a bonus, both for Morales and his fantasy owners, he gets to play at Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards six to seven more times each year. Now you’re starting to see why I’m so high on him in 2017.
In case you need more concrete proof that Kaufmann Stadium was suppressing Morales’ power, see the below tweet from Daren Willman of MLB.com:
Kendrys Morales 2016 spray chart at Rogers Centre. pic.twitter.com/fTklShQtE0
— Daren Willman (@darenw) November 11, 2016
You can count 5 batted balls in 2016 that would have been home runs in Rogers Centre that went for doubles (2) or flyouts (3). Change is great for Kendrys Morales.
Changing His Approach?
One major question is whether the Blue Jays and their coaching staff can get the most out of Morales by getting him to not only hit the ball in the air more but also pull it. Toronto was 4th in pull % at 42.6% in 2016, while the Royals were in the bottom half of the league at 39.0%. The Blue Jays were second in the league at 43.3% in 2015, which points toward an organizational approach to pulling the ball. Whether this is to leverage the short porches in left and right field or based on Statcast data that shows the benefits of pulling the ball in the air is unclear; what is clear is that the approach would address another weakness in Morales’ approach–a below average pull % (37.9%). Taking advantage of short left and right field walls in his new home field should be a priority for both Morales and the coaching staff working with him. Based on past years, the adjustment shouldn’t be too challenging, since his pull% away from Kaufmann Stadium was 41% and 43.2% in 2016 and 2015, respectively.
As I discussed earlier, the other major weakness for Morales is his league average ground ball to fly ball ratio. This appears to be another area where Morales’ weakness is a strength of the Blue Jays offensive approach. Toronto ranked near the bottom of the league in ground ball to fly ball ratio at 1.16 (an example where being bottom of the league is good), a sign that the team has an approach to hitting that also emphasizes hitting the ball in the air. Meanwhile the Royals had the fifth highest ratio in the league (1.43).
Can Morales tap into even more power by changing his approach in his age-34 season? That is a big question and one that will help determine Morales’ ceiling in his new team.
Count It
I have spent considerable time assessing Morales’ potential power surge as well as the distinct possibility that with a little bit more luck (and home runs) he could return to .280-.290 batting average and a .350 OBP. Another area where Morales could see additional growth is in his counting stats that do not rely solely on baserunning (he hasn’t stolen a base since 2009). He spent much of the year (491 plate appearances) in Kansas City hitting 4th and 5th in a lineup with horrendous on-base skills. He will likely slot into the 3rd or 4th spot in Toronto as a replacement for Edwin Encarnacion. A quick look at the top of the lineup for his previous and current team show significant growth potential in RBIs.
Kendrys Morales Is Hungry for RBIs
OBP of 1 through 3 hitters in KC and TOR lineups (2016)Toronto | Kansas City | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Leadoff | .333 | .296 | +.037 |
2nd | .381 | .308 | +.073 |
3rd | .373 | .333 | +.040 |
1st through 3rd | .362 | .312 | +.050 |
(Stats: Fangraphs.com)
Morales will be looking forward to batting in the middle of the Blue Jays lineup with an OBP stud like Josh Donaldson right in front of him. RBIs are always challenging to predict because they are so reliant on factors outside a given hitters control (i.e. hitting with runners on base and in scoring position), but Morales will most likely have more opportunities with runners on base in 2017 than he had in 2016 with the Royals. Runs may be an area of weakness for Morales, given his slow baserunning and a fairly anemic bottom of the lineup in Toronto. That said, an increase in HRs and OBP should help.
Final Thoughts
Kendrys Morales’ underlying statistics from 2016 and 2015 already point toward a rebound in batting average and OBP (for those in OBP leagues) from 2016 and his signing by the Blue Jays is a match made in heaven. Not only should his new home park help increase Morales’ home runs and power numbers, but the weaknesses in his hitting approach are strengths in the Blue Jays’ approach (and presumably their coaching staff). The move from Kansas City, with its OBP deficiencies at the top of the lineup, should increase Morales’ RBI opportunities and increased power and OBP should help his runs total as well. Unfortunately, I’ve found no data that points toward Morales stealing a single base. I see Morales as a huge value based on where he is currently ranked and where I project him to finish 2017 and would recommend taking him earlier in drafts and being willing to pay a steeper price, if necessary, in auctions.
Prediction: .285 BA, 80 R, 111 RBI, 38 HR, 0 SB
Thanks for reading my second post at BatFlip Crazy and my first involving player analysis. I hope you’ve found it helpful. If you are interested in my take on any players, feel free to ask me a question via twitter (@batflipcrazy), through the website or by email batflipcrazy (at) gmail.com.