Christian Yelich
In April, I wrote about a new approach Yelich had taken late in 2016 and early this season–hitting a lot of fly balls. Over the past few seasons, Yelich has posted very low fly ball rates, limiting his power potential. He did put up 20 home runs in 2016, but it came on a 23.6% home run to fly ball rate. While Yelich’s home run to fly ball rate last season represented a career high, it also reflected an ability to hit a high percentage of his fly balls hard (60.7%).
After struggling with a low batting average early this season, Yelich has decided the fly ball revolution doesn’t need another convert. Accordingly, over the last 30 games his fly ball rate rests at a very low 16.9% and over the last 15 games it’s even lower at 12.8%. Not surprisingly, Yelich’s BABIP and batting average have slowly improved.
Over his last 15 games with the very low fly ball rate, Yelich has batted .310 with a .375 BABIP and a line drive rate approaching 30%. His hard hit rate remains much lower than usual this season and he has struggled to hit the ball hard in the air, especially recently. Fantasy owners have some cause for worry about his power, but the high batting average and OBP version of Yelich represents a better fantasy baseball asset than the one hitting .265 on a .295 BABIP on June 2nd.
Zack Godley
Godley has surprised many fantasy owners (and probably Diamondback fans) by contributing consistently this season. He has yet to give up more than three earned runs in any start in 2017, while producing solid numbers.
Overall, he has been a bit lucky posting a below average BABIP (.252 on a .287 xBABIP) and above average strand rate (82.0%). He has managed to limit damage from opposing hitters, however, giving up three home runs (3.3 xHR) and inducing batted balls at launch angles under 0° on 51.7% of all balls in play. Godley’s overall ground ball rate sits at an elite 60.3%.
Over the last 30 days (5 starts), Godley’s skills have also improved and he ranks among the top 20 in baseball in some key metrics.
Zack Godley's Last 30 Days: Skills & MLB RankO-swing % | Contact % | SwStr % | F-strike % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Godley | 35.2% | 73.3% | 12.3% | 69.1% |
MLB Rank | 12th | 12th | 20th | 5th |
Source: Fangraphs
Maybe the most important of these skills is his 69.1% first pitch strike rate over the past month, since Godley has always struggled with walks. After posting a 4.3 BB/9 on a 12.5% walk rate in his first four starts, the Diamondbacks right-hander has a 2.0 BB/9 and 5.7% walk rate in his last five. Godley’s high swing rate outside the zone has helped him overcome throwing only 39.9% of his pitches in the zone.
Godley’s 7.2 K/9 on a 20.3% strikeout rate won’t generate too much excited among fantasy owners, but the skills portend improvements in that department as well. His swinging strike rate and contact rate are both in the top 20 among qualified starters.
The combination of limiting damage on balls in play and improving skills bode well for the rest of Godley’s season. Those fantasy owners who took a chance early with him should see continued–if not increasing–rewards.