As we head down the stretch of the fantasy baseball season, the names of your players become less relevant than earlier in the season. You can’t afford to stick with players whose skills and production have worn down with the season, regardless of where you drafted them. Often the players who win you fantasy baseball championships aren’t your household names but the guys you notice surging before anyone else in your league. Case in point: Mikie Mahtook.
Mikie Mahtook
Context
Fantasy owners have largely ignored Mahtook. His ownership rate sits at 14% in Yahoo! leagues and his season-long ranking sits at a robust 560th. Look a little closer, though, and his line over the last 30 days puts him at 156th with a helpful .293/20/3/8/1. Not overwhelming, but he’s tied for 17th in runs across baseball over the last month and 53rd in batting average.
You may laugh at the numbers, but if you look closer, he’s one of only a handful of largely unowned players who make either list. Your trade deadline has likely passed, so you now rely on players like Mahtook to fill gaps and add valuable rotisserie points to your total (at least in roto leagues). His consistent presence in a surging Tigers lineup, largely batting second, adds some insurance for his counting stats.
Stats
Mahtook is one of a handful of players that jumps out at me because all of the indicators and skills that I rely on to identify value in players support his production. First and foremost, his existing stats line up well with his expected stats based on balls in play (exit velocity, launch angle).
Mikie Mahtook: Stats vs. xStatsAVG | OPS | BABIP | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017 Stats | .293 | .814 | .349 | 9 |
2017 xStats | .299 | .816 | .362 | 7.1 |
August 2017 xStats | .308 | .813 | .380 | 1.8 |
Source: Fangraphs.org & xStats.org
Mahtook’s balls in play based on exit velocity and launch angle (a more granular version of ground ball, line drive and fly ball rates) support his current level of production. Not only that, but Mahtook’s balls in play have improved as the season has progressed, which highlights his improvement in underlying skills.
Skills
Since early-to-mid July, Mahtook has become a different hitter. His contact rate has increased and his swinging strike rate has decreased. His plate discipline has improved by leaps and bounds. He’s managed to cut his chase rate by about 16% down to a near elite 22.9% (league average around 29%) over his last 30 games. Most importantly, his improved plate discipline has helped him make the most of his increased contact.
Batted Ball Profile
The Tigers outfielder has steadily increased his line drive and ground ball rates, which help support a high BABIP and high batting average. And while his fly ball rate has dropped at the same time, he’s hitting the ball harder overall (a strong 40.2% hard hit rate on the season) and has increased his hard hit fly ball rate by 14.7% from last season up to a solid 43.3%.
By improving his plate discipline, Mahtook has made the most of his contact and begun living up to the potential that made him a first round pick in 2011.
Summary
Every indicator points toward a strong finish to the season for Mahtook. His expected stats based on balls in play and strong skill growth support his current level of production and point toward the possibility of better production in the season’s final month.
Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect him to become someone he’s not and start hitting for power, but if you’re looking for batting average and runs without hurting yourself too badly in other categories, the Tigers outfielder can help you down the stretch. Who knows, he may even help you win your league.