A few thoughts on guys making headlines the past few days: Ryan Zimmerman, Byron Buxton and Chris Owings. As with all early season analysis, small sample sizes apply!
Ryan Zimmerman
Ryan Zimmerman is getting a lot of love these day. Unfortunately, this version of Zimmerman displays the same skills as the one who has played for the Nationals the past few season. A .500 BABIP and a 50% home run to fly ball rate will definitely make a player look good. Below the surface the skills continue to erode. Zimmerman’s strikeout rate has increased by 7% up to 29.6% and rumors of an increase in fly balls have been great exaggerated thus far (34.7% in 2016 and 35.3% in 2017).
Without a total revamp of his batted ball profile, Zimmerman will eventually regress to a poor BABIP. He has low line drive rate, hits a lot of ground balls but isn’t fast and fly balls aren’t going to help BABIP regardless of who is hitting them. He has hit his fly balls hard and is pulling them more often, but his hard hit rate overall is down 5.3% below 30%. His contact rate has also dipped.
Enjoy the inflated stats while you can with Zimmerman!
Byron Buxton
I was pessimistic on Buxton heading into the season, but he can’t be this bad. Buxton owners were probably drawn to him by an unsustainable September when he had a .370 BABIP and a 36% HR/FB rate. None of the underlying skills changed, including a horrendous K-BB% that was still at 25.1% (34.1%-9.0%) in the second half of 2016.
A high BABIP isn’t necessarily a surprise for Buxton because of his speed, but he was a fly ball hitter last season with a 0.81 ground ball to fly ball rate. During September, when he slugged 9 home runs and had the .370 BABIP, he only had a 29.7% hard hit rate on all balls in play and a 40% hard hit rate on fly balls, which is solid but not nearly high enough to sustain a 36% HR/FB. It’s also a bad sign when young players don’t improve in critical skill sets and Buxton has shown no ability to adjust and improve his plate discipline and contact rates. They’ve actually gotten progressively worse.
Finally, Buxton’s speed has never translated into stolen bases. He’s stolen 12 in 496 plate appearances and his 2016 totals–when extrapolated to 600 plate appearances–would still only give him 18 in a full season. In many ways, Buxton is a creation of fantasy owners’ excitement for shiny new things. He’s never shown the skills to be the five-tool player he was supposed to be and, despite a close to 500 plate appearances and no sign of improved skills, we still expect big things.
Chris Owings
Owings was someone I drafted late in a couple drafts this year, once it became clear he would get a lot of playing time at different positions in Arizona. Eno Sarris wrote a great piece on him late in March and I was intrigued by the speed and improved plate skills last season. Although I had some expectations for Owings heading into the season, I’ve still been surprised by his first eight games.
While Owings’ stats, like so many early season risers, is supported by an unsustainable BABIP (.429), there is reason for optimism. The BABIP is driven by a high line drive rate (31.8%) and 2.00 ground ball to fly ball rate that–while limiting his power potential–allows Owings to benefit from his speed. His career BABIP of .322 shows a track record for supporting BABIPs higher than league average. The line drive rate will come down, but he also has an above average line drive rate for his career.
Owings’ plate discipline also continues to improve. His swing rate at pitches outside the zone (O-swing%) is down 3% in 2017 and his contact rate is up 2.4% to 83.0%, after he increased it by 4.5% last season. His swinging strike rate is down to 8.3%. While the o-swing% is below league average, Owings’ contact skills are now well above average and he’s also hitting the ball harder, with a career high 31.8% and, maybe more impressive, a 4.5% soft hit rate.
Owings has been a nice surprise for fantasy owners this season. He certainly won’t sustain the current batting average, but he should be a valuable fantasy contributor if the skill growth continues. His speed is an asset, particularly with the Diamondbacks new coaching staff giving players the green light on the bases thus far, and he should be able to replicate if not improve on his .277 batting average, even when the line drive rate comes down. Owings won’t be providing fantasy owners with a high home run total, but he should be able to provide solid runs with his speed at the top or bottom of a deep Diamondbacks lineup. All said, it’s a great return on investment–with great positional flexibility–and a profile fantasy owners should be rushing to their waiver wire to pick up.