Corey Kluber is headed to the disabled list and Marcus Stroman left yesterday’s start early because of “arm tightness,” leaving their fantasy owners scrambling for replacements. I think the DL trip for Kluber is good news, since he just hasn’t been right this season. He’s getting hit very hard (42.3%) and his velocity is down. Hopefully he takes the time he needs to get back to the level of performance fantasy owners expected when they drafted him.
Stroman’s injury is concerning and it puts the breaks on a decent, though unlucky start. He may have left the game for precautionary reasons, and the latest updates point toward him making his next start, but we all saw how that worked out for Noah Syndegaard and the Mets.
Here are some options for replacing Kluber and Stroman who may be available in your leagues:
Nate Karns
Nate Karns had a great outing last night and he’s showing some intriguing skills. His strikeout rate is down (21.5%), but his biggest weakness in past years–the walk rate–is down to a manageable level (8.3% and 3.10 BB/9). Below the surface, his swinging strike rate (10.8%) is the same as in seasons where he posted more than a strikeout an inning, but the contact rate is also up both inside and outside the zone.
Karns now has two pitches, a knuckle curve and changeup, that are inducing very high ground ball rates and his ground ball rate overall is close to 60%. This shows up in an elite 25.0% soft hit rate. One theory I have is that he may be pitching more to contact because he trusts the contact coming from his curve and changeup and it helps address his major weakness with control. His zone rate doesn’t support this theory–it’s lower on those two pitches than in past years–but I haven’t watched him, so I’d be interested to hear from Royals fans.
Home runs have been Karns’ achilles heel thus far (1.86 HR/9) and they’ve been deserved (6HR to 6.2xHR), but he isn’t giving up particularly hard contact on fly balls. If he is able to limit the long ball, he could be a decent contributor in ERA, WHIP & strikeouts.
Dan Straily
Dan Straily‘s ownership rates probably spiked after his recent 14 strikeout performance, but he’s still only owned in 22% of Yahoo! leagues. Straily is someone I’ve had on my teams this year because I think the situation in Miami works for him perfectly.
The pitcher’s pitcher gets by on consistently low BABIPs through high fly ball rates (48.4% in 2017 and 46.9% for his career) and league leading opposite field ground ball rates (though they’re up this year), both of which suppress BABIP. He also has the 12th best soft hit rate this season at 23.4%. The move to Miami puts him in a home field that suppresses home runs–his biggest weakness last season–and he has a solid defensive outfield behind him.
The skills this year are also impressive, with an 11.2% swinging strike rate that is supported by lower contact rates and higher rates of batters chasing the ball out of the zone. His hard-hit fly ball rate is a terrific 26.7% and he’s limited the number of pulled fly balls, another key to keeping the ball in the yard.
He’s been unlucky thus far on home runs (3HR to 1.4xHR) and I’d love to see him lower the walk rate, but all signs point to solid contributions in WHIPand strikeouts with decent ERA and some win potential.
Trevor Cahill
Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs.com wrote up Trevor Cahill and did a much better job than I could ever do. The main point: Cahill’s skills support the current performance level, which is strong. He is owned in only 10% of Yahoo! leagues.
Charlie Morton
Charlie Morton is owned in only 15% of Yahoo! leagues despite a strong start to the season. Thus far in 2017, Morton has been able to replicate the 17.1 intriguing innings he pitched in 2016 where he rode his great curveball to high strikeout and groundball rates (two of fantasy owners’ favorite pitcher qualities). Morton has managed a 26.2% strikeout rate (10.32 K/9) in 2017 and kept the walks down (6.7% and 2.86 BB/9) for a robust 19.6% K-BB%.
The skills are solid, too, with a 10.5% swinging strike rate and contact rates down both inside and outside the zone from his last full season. One weakness so far in 2017 is a hard hit rate at 40.0% and an increased line drive rate, which have combined to give him the 11th worst BABIP against among qualified starters at .344. This may be a result of Morton getting behind a lot of hitters, as his 55.0% first-pitch strike is low and nearly 7% lower than his last full season. His xBABIP of .288 does point to some bad luck, however.
Morton should be able to provide some cover to fantasy owners missing Kluber’s strikeouts and he plays for a division-leading team that gives him a good chance at racking up some wins. If he can solve his first-pitch strike issues, big things could happen for Morton in 2017.
Alex Wood
Alex Wood has the enviable job of filling in for Rich Hill in the Dodgers rotation, which means he’s guaranteed a spot for at least three-quarters of the season. All kidding aside (I’m just a bitter Rich Hill owner), Wood has the potential to be a solid contributor for the entire season, as his performance in the rotation to date makes it difficult for the Dodgers to move him back to the bullpen.
Wood has the highest swinging strike rate of his career thus far at 10.3% and is also getting hitters to chase pitches outside the zone at a career best rate of 30.1%. He is only allowing hard contact at a 23.9% rate and is inducing groundballs at a nearly 60% clip.
Walks continue to be the major knock on Wood (3.28 BB/9), but he’s been able to overcome both the walks and some bad luck (62.5% strand rate) to post solid numbers in 24 innings. If he can get the walks back down near his career average and stay healthy–a big if–he has the skills to contribute strong ratios and bring fantasy owners some wins. He’s not a workhorse, so don’t expect high innings or strikeout totals.