At the start of the season, I made 10 bold predictions. 2017 being my first year providing fantasy analysis, I had delusions of grandeur. If you had asked me at the time, I would’ve been happy with 5 or 6 correct. Anything less and I would’ve considered my predictions a giant flop. Well, I flopped.
While I finished 1 for 10, I feel pretty good about 3 of the predictions. Jake Lamb didn’t quite reach the top five of third baseman, but he certainly brought owners a ton of value. James Paxton and Aaron Nola didn’t quite finish as top 15 pitchers in fantasy, but they both pitched very well and enter the 2018 fantasy season in or at the cusp of the top 15 starters.
I’d love to count these as victories, but bold predictions are bold predictions.
Note: When comparing or providing ranks for players, I used Yahoo! player rankings.
Bold Prediction #1: Kendrys Morales finishes 2017 ranked higher than Edwin Encarnacion in 5×5 leagues
Morales 2017 rank: 205
Encarnacion 2017 rank: 45
I loved Morales in Toronto and saw signs of Encarnacion slipping. In April the prediction looked good, but those chances faded as the summer took hold. Morales’ skills have slipped and his contact and strikeout rates raise huge red flags for 2018 and beyond. E5 continues to mash.
0 for 1
Bold prediction #2: Tyler Anderson will outperform Kyle Hendricks in 5×5 leagues
Hendricks 2017 rank: 154
Anderson 2017 rank: 476
I still like Anderson a lot, and injuries played a role in this year’s struggles, but this one wasn’t close. Hendricks continues to pitch well and should provide value at a much later ADP in 2018 than 2017.
Keep an eye on Anderson, though. Some of his skills actually improved over last season, particularly in the strikeout department. His September return provided a glimpse of the promise I saw heading into the season. He may prove a steal in 2018 fantasy drafts.
0 for 2
Bold prediction #3: Paul Goldschmidt finishes outside Top 5 first basemen in 5×5 leagues
Goldschmidt ranked 1st among first basemen and fifth among all hitters.
Ouch. Sometimes you just swing and miss. Goldschmidt was fantasy gold again this season.
0 for 3
Bold prediction #4: Matt Wieters finishes the season as #4 catcher in 5×5 leagues
Wieters finished 29th among catchers.
From my mid-season review of my bold predictions: “I learned an important lesson with my faith in Wieters this season as well. Just as you shouldn’t lose faith in players with established track records as consistent fantasy performers (i.e. Goldschmidt), you also shouldn’t expect a 31 year-old catcher to dramatically increase his level of offensive production in his ninth major league season. Lesson learned.”
0 for 4
Bold prediction #5: Shin-Soo Choo (320 ADP) outperforms Rougned Odor (38 ADP) in 5×5 leagues
Choo 2017 rank: 90
Odor 2017 rank: 232
Victory!
I loved Choo coming into the season and he repaid my faith. Similarly, Odor’s unsustainable approach at the plate had me staying far away, even when he came out of the gates hot.
Choo will likely provide fantasy owners with value next year, too. In the four #2EarlyMock drafts, his highest draft position was 139. He possesses elite plate discipline and OBP skills and will contribute in every category without hurting you in any.
1 for 5
Bold prediction #6: Nick Markakis finishes the year 200 places above his current ADP (361)
Markakis 2017 rank: 265
Markakis continued his steady production, but couldn’t muster enough home runs or stolen bases to make a run at my bold prediction. He probably needed another 15 home runs and stolen bases to approach 161.
1 for 6
Bold prediction #7: Jake Lamb is a top 5 fantasy 3B in 5×5 leagues going .290/100/35/100/5
Lamb ranked 10th among third basemen in 2017.
Before the season started, I wrote about the awesomeness of Jake Lamb and the injury that derailed his breakout season in 2016. He started off 2017 well, but cooled as the season progressed. Still, he provided his fantasy owners with tremendous value, finishing the season ranked 74 when his ADP hovered around 150 at draft time.
I loved Lamb this year, but I probably won’t be back on the Lamb train next season. He won’t provide as much value at an ADP that will likely finish somewhere between 75 and 100 and his struggles against lefties make it tough to start him during weeks with two or more lefties on the hill. His second consecutive year with an awful second half also raises concerns about his ability to produce throughout an entire season.
I hope he improves his platoon splits, but until then count me concerned. That or I’m just pissed he turned a mid-season bold prediction victory (and a .200 batting average on bold predictions) into a defeat.
1 for 7
Bold prediction #8: A. Nola & J. Paxton finish as Top 15 SPs in 5×5 fantasy leagues
Paxton 2017 SP rank: 16
Nola 2017 SP rank: 22
So close! Paxton clearly has top 15 stuff, but injuries continue to limit his overall production. Still, his 136 innings in 2017 helped out fantasy owners considerably, boosting ratios, returning a solid win total for his number of starts and contributing more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings. The prediction wasn’t right, but again, he returned quite a bit of value.
Without two horrendous starts against the Marlins late in the season (11.1 IP, 13 ER), Nola likely would’ve crept into the top 15. Instead he finished just outside the top 20. After a modest start, Nola turned it on and became a force in the second half. His second half ERA of 3.49 and WHIP of 1.23 weren’t spectacular, but his strikeouts surged (28.3% K for 10.57 K/9) and his peripherals point to another level he could reach (21.7% K-BB%). He’s still just 24 years old.
While Paxton and Nola didn’t achieve bold prediction victory, they did provided considerable value to their fantasy fowners in 2017. In the four #2EarlyMock drafts, they went as the 16th and 20th pitchers, respectively, off the board.
1 for 8
Bold prediction #9: Billy Hamilton (70+) & Jarrod Dyson (50+) combine for 120+ SBs
Total: 87 SB (Hamilton 59 + Dyson 28)
Hamilton and Dyson combined for 87 stolen bases, a far cry from 120+. I expected more from Dyson in his first full-time role , but he didn’t even manage the same number of stolen bases as he had in 53 fewer plate appearances with Kansas City in 2016.
1 for 9
Bold prediction #10 (Award Winner edition): Darvish & Sydergaard (Cy Young), Freeman & Donaldson (MVP), Benintendi & Renfroe (ROYs)
The most I can say is Freddie Freeman started on an MVP pace and Benintendi would’ve won the AL Rookie of the Year in most seasons. Otherwise – whiff.
1 for 10