Yasmany Tomas is not good at defense. How bad is he at defense? At -16 defensive runs saved he was the 6th worst fielding outfielder and his defense managed to totally negate his offensive production to give him a -0.1 WAR, according to Fangraphs. That isn’t good. But is there good news in his poor defense? Yes, because it looks like Tomas is being punished in fantasy baseball for being bad at defense in real life. As a result, he could be a steal at his current ADP of 148 (35th OF off the board).
Was 2016 a Desert Mirage?
Tomas crushed it in the second half of 2016 with a 5×5 line of .294, 35R, 18HR, 49RBI and 0SB (you didn’t draft or pick up Tomas for stolen bases). Combine his terrific second half with a modest first half and he finished the year ranked 110th in Yahoo Leagues and 127th on the ESPN Player Rater.
In achieving his first fantasy baseball relevance in 2016, Tomas hit the ball very hard. His 41.6% hard hit rate in the second half of 2016 was 11th in all of MLB behind a Who’s Who of power hitters. This was not an anomaly, as Tomas had a similar 40.5% hard hit rate during the first half and above average exit velocity in all but six weeks of the 2016 regular season. His full season hard-hit rate of 41.0% was eight among qualified hitters.
In addition to elite batted ball skills, Tomas’ zone profile shows that he can hit the ball hard nearly anywhere inside the strike zone. He put up an isolate power of .222 or higher in all but one of part of the strike zone (high and away) from July 1st until the end of the season.
Plate discipline remains a challenge for Tomas, as his BB% (5.5%) and K% (24.1%) are both on the wrong side of league average. He showed slight progress in 2016, however, and cut his K% down to 23.3% in the second half of the season. While Tomas probably won’t approach league average in walks anytime soon, if he can approach league average in strikeouts and maintain his hard hit% we could see him approach a .300 batting average.
Another good sign for Tomas to repeat his 2016 production is that his stats align well with his expected stats, according to xStats.org. While he likely overperformed on HRs (his 25.0% HR/FB was twice league average), xStats.org appears to agree there is room for improvement on his batting average via a BABIP that better reflects his underlying batted ball skills.
Yasmany Tomas 2016
Stats vs. xStatsAVG | OBP | SLG | BABIP | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 Stats | .272 | .313 | .508 | .310 | 31 |
2016 xStats | .284 | .327 | .508 | .334 | 26.2 |
Room for Improvement?
What’s most exciting to me about Tomas is significant room for improvement in his power numbers. While 31 home runs is nothing to sneeze at, he managed to accomplish this with a 1.52 ground ball to fly ball rate in 2016. He appeared to shift his approach slightly in the second half of 2016 by increasing his fly ball rate 3.0% up to 33% and dropping his ground ball to fly ball rate to 1.39 from 1.63 in the first half. If Tomas can continue to increase his fly ball rate while maintaining his hard contact skills and above average pull and opposite field rates (Tomas hit 7 opposite field home runs in 2016), he should be able to make up for the home runs he loses when his HR/FB rate comes back to earth.
Another factor that could help Tomas in the counting stats, particularly RBIs, is a healthy Diamondbacks lineup. Roster Resource currently has Tomas slotted in at 5th in a strong lineup that sees the return of AJ Pollock to the top of the order in front of Jake Lamb, OBP-stud Paul Godschmidt and a healthy David Peralta. If healthy, this lineup should provide Yasmany with plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. He will also continue to play half his games at Chase Field, one of the top two hitters parks in all of baseball, which should help both his power numbers and his BABIP.
Conclusion
Yasmany Tomas may not be a great baseball player in reality, but there is reason to believe he can at least repeat his 2016 season by continuing to hit the ball hard at an elite level. If he can continue to reduce his K% and increase his fly ball rate to approach league average, he may be able to take the next step. At 148th in ADP, fantasy managers are predicting a drop off in skills for Tomas that may reflect too much of a focus on his actual value on a baseball field and not his value in fantasy lineups.