Earlier today, I had some more requests through Twitter for player analysis. I’ll start with Starling Marte and Carlos Gomez in this post, with Christian Yelich, Carlos Gonzalez and Gary Sanchez later in the week.
Starling Marte will likely see his batting average drop and his power return to double digits
In 2016, Marte’s owners were excited about his career high in batting average and stolen bases, though a bit disappointed in the power, counting stats and his inability to remain healthy. Marte’s health will always be part of the package, since he’s averaged only 138 games over four full seasons.
While Marte posts historically high BABIPs because of his high ground ball rate and speed, his .380 BABIP was inflated in 2016. xStats.org had Marte’s xBABIP at .335, while Mike Podhorzer had him at .356 xBABIP. Either way you look at it, Marte is due some regression in his batting average. I would expect him to be back around .280.
The news isn’t all bad for his owners. Marte’s 9 home runs in 2016 were his lowest total for a full season and less than half his career high of 19 in 2015. Marte doesn’t hit a lot of fly balls, but when he does he hits them hard. His 43.9% hard hit rate on fly balls was below previous years, but still solid. xStats.org had him at 12.8 xHR in 2016 and Podhorzer had his xHR/FB at 10.0% instead of his 8.4%.
In 2016, 18.6% of hard hit fly balls to the opposite field went for home runs, 16.9% of hard hit fly balls to center went for home runs and 61.8% of hard hit fly balls that were pulled went for home runs. Taking these averages and applying them to Marte’s batted ball profile gets you 14.4 xHR. Again, either way you slice it, Marte is due for a return to double digits in home runs, likely between 11 and 14.
As a result, his value for fantasy owners in 2017 will rest primarily on his counting stats and, thus, his health. If he can approach 140 games again, expect something in the neighborhood of .280/80/12/50/35.
Carlos Gomez returns to his career average, which is mediocre
Gomez is one of the biggest fantasy baseball question marks heading into 2017. After a miserable start and middle to 2016, he finished the year on a hot streak after signing with the Rangers. Where you drafted Gomez and whether you did at all likely reflected whether you believed in his Texas renaissance or not. Gomez’s ADP in drafts shows just how split owners were, as he had a range of 160 picks (earliest pick of 104 and latest pick of 264 in NFBC drafts after March 1).
A dive into the numbers shows that Gomez did get better toward the end of last season, but the level of performance was boosted by an elevated BABIP and home run to fly ball rate that weren’t supported by underlying skills. Moreover, he’s still struck out in 28.1% of his plate appearances since joining the Rangers, which will make maintaining a decent batting average a challenge.
The good news for Gomez owners is that his approach at the plate and contact rates have improved and are beginning to approach his career averages, though his contact and hard contact rates still lag far behind his best hitting years (2013-2014). The bad news is that Gomez’s career slash line is .256/.312/.415.
Gomez has actually never scored 100 runs and his highest RBI and home run totals are 73 and 24, respectively. During his peak, a significant amount of the value Gomez generated was a result of his speed. He averaged 37 stolen bases between 2012 and 2014, which also coincided with a spike in his power and RBI totals.
Gomez stole a total of 35 the past two seasons and is only five for nine on stolen bases (55.5%) with the Rangers, including a caught stealing already this season. That does not bode well for him continuing to get the green light in Texas. Even if he does, stolen bases aren’t like fine wines and they don’t get better with age. Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect more than 15 in 2017.
Finally, the power Gomez has shown with the Rangers is a result of an inflated 23.1% home run to fly ball rate. His hard hit rate on fly balls is below league average at 30.8% and, while he pulls the vast majority of those hard hit fly balls, the volume isn’t enough to support the nine home runs Gomez has in 139 plate appearances with the Rangers. Based on league average home run rates on hard hit fly balls to each part of the field, Gomez should only expect 6.5 home runs, though xStats.org gives him 7.9 xHR if you include all of his August at bats.
As with Marte, Gomez’s value will depend largely on his playing time and health. I would expect a batting average between .250-.260 with about 4 home runs per 100 plate appearances, middling counting stats and 10-15 stolen bases. Decent numbers if you drafted him toward pick 200, but much less than you’re expecting if you picked him earlier in drafts.