Bradley Zimmer had a solid first year in the majors in 2018 before breaking a bone in his hand on September 10 and missing the rest of the season. While Zimmer generally produced average rates in most categories in 2017, his 2018 fantasy value lies primarily with his speed.
Overall
BatFlip Profile: Bradley Zimmer 2018PA | AVG | OBP | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 Stats | 332 | .241 | .307 | 41 | 8 | 39 | 18 |
2017 Stats/PA | --- | .241 | .307 | 12.35% | 2.41% | 11.75% | 5.42% |
Z-score (Stats/PA)* | --- | -0.45 | -0.49 | -0.04 | -0.55 | -0.03 | 2.34 |
Stats from: Fangraphs.com and xStats.org
*Z-score is the number of standard deviations a player is above or below the mean. These z-scores are based on the mean and standard deviation of non-pitchers with at least 50 PA in 2017
Heading into 2018, Zimmer looks like a great source of steals with average rates in runs and RBI and a slightly below average home run rate. His poor contact skills should keep his batting average and OBP below average and, without a major adjustment, severely limit his ceiling in the categories. Zimmer’s low OBP will also likely keep him batting toward the bottom of the Indians lineup instead of leadoff. The good news for his 2018 owners: Barring major regression, he should have a consistent place in the Indians starting lineup given his stellar centerfield defense.
Zimmer’s combination of strong stolen base production and average counting stats should provide enough value to make him a top 40 OF. In a worst-case scenario, his poor contact skills and trend toward a high fly ball rate make his batting average and OBP a huge drain on the category for fantasy owners. In a best-case scenario, he improves his contact rate and hits at or slightly above league average boosting his counting stat rates in the process.
Prediction: .230 BA/.300 OBP/68 R/17 HR/66 RBI/32 SB
Batting Average & OBP
Bradley Zimmer 2018: AVG & OBP SkillsAVG | OBP | BABIP | Contact % | O-swing% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 Stats | .241 | .307 | .328 | 70.4% | 27.9% |
2017 xStats | .236 | .303 | .310 | --- | --- |
MLB Average | .260 | .329 | .301 | 77.5% | 29.9% |
Stats: Fangraphs.com and xStats.org
Batting average and OBP represent the weakest area of Zimmer’s game. His below average contact skills and high strikeout rate (29.8%) limit the current upside on Zimmer’s batting average and–despite solid plate discipline–his ability to get on base.
The Indians centerfielder’s speed and solid hard hit rate should help him maintain an above average BABIP, unless he continues his second-half trend of hitting too many fly balls. Either way, his batting average and OBP ceiling will remain low if his strikeout rate stays around 30%.
Runs & RBI
Because of his speed and the strong Indians lineup, Zimmer managed a league average run rate (runs per plate appearance) with a below average OBP. If Zimmer bats leadoff for Cleveland (a big if, given his OBP challenges), he should provide a decent return for fantasy owners in runs. If he bats toward the back of the lineup, he’ll likely swap some runs for RBI.
Zimmer also had a league average RBI rate (RBI per plate appearance) despite a .221 average with runners in scoring position and below average power. Given his batting average shouldn’t improve too significantly and he projects to average power, I expect some slight regression in his RBI rate.
Home Runs
Bradley Zimmer 2018: HR SkillsHR/PA | ISO | wOBA | Barrels/PA | HHFB/PA | AEV (16-42°)* | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 Stats | 2.41% | .144 | .299 | 5.4% | 6.33% | 91.9 |
2017 xStats | 3.25% | .162 | .301 | --- | --- | |
MLB Average | 3.40% | .171 | .321 | 4.27% | 9.21% | 90.5 |
Stats: Fangraphs.com, xStats.org & Baseball Savant
*99.2% of home runs in 2017 came between 16-42°
Almost every power metric points to Zimmer having league average to slightly below average home run totals. As mentioned earlier, his fly ball rate increased dramatically toward the end of the season (26.2% in first half, 38.2% in second). Obviously this would increase his home run totals, but given his mediocre hard hit fly ball rates and exit velocity on home run launch angles, if the trend continues it would likely hurt his batting average enough to make him borderline unplayable.
Down the road, Zimmer may increase his power output. He has the frame for it (6’5″, 220 lbs.), but outside the increased fly ball rate, I don’t see any positive signs from 2017 of it happening in 2018.
Stolen Bases
Bradley Zimmer 2018: Stolen Base SkillsSB/PA | SB% | Sprint Speed | Spd | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017 Stats | 5.42% | 94.4% | 29.9 ft/sec | 7.0 |
MLB Average | 1.41% | 63.0% | Rank: 3rd | 4.4 |
Stats: Fangraphs.com and Baseball Savant
Here you see why Zimmer had an average ADP of 153 (OF42) in four recent expert mock drafts–speed. Statcast measured Zimmer at a sprint speed of 29.9 feet per second, third fastest in all of baseball. His strong success rate (94.4%) on 19 stolen base attempts bodes well for Zimmer getting the green light on the basepaths in 2018. If healthy and in the lineup, Zimmer should reach the 30 stolen base mark and could threaten 40.