First base is pissed. Like a rebellious teenager, it does not want us to define it (if we’re honest, I think we all don’t want others defining us, but that’s a longer post. For now it’s a rebellious teenager…). Here is a sample one-sided conversation of said teenager with their parents:
“Hey parental unit, don’t call me shallow! I have incredible talent in my early rounds! Anthony Rizzo would be a first round pick in a lot of seasons! Rhys Hoskins is my favorite!”
(Note: rebellious teenagers only speak in exclamatory statements. It’s kind of like all caps for online trolls.)
“I do not have a soft underbelly after the early rounds! Greg Bird is totally worth his ADP of 144! Miggy has no question marks! Stop!”
Alright, you get the point. First base is complicated. You cannot define it. But like any good parent, I’ll try to take a very complicated subject and fit it into a neat little box. Here are the three sides of my first base box (first base will not be defined by its number of sides):
- Elite talent: Tiers 1 & 2
- Flawed talent that fits into the right team: Tiers 3-5
- WTF! How did I not draft a first basemen earl…Oh! If I look closely there might be some value here: Tier 6-8
BatFlip Crazy 1B Rankings Spreadsheet
I laid out my process in my first preview (catchers) here. As I mentioned, you shouldn’t see any set of rankings as gospel or use them in a vacuum. I’ve separated players into tiers of relative value, so use those as guide posts. If you don’t have a very good batting average foundation and hate risk, don’t take Joey Gallo in Tier 4 and wait on Justin Smoak instead. You get the point.
I’ll break the preview into two categories, flips and flops, based on value compared to average draft position, or ADP, (whenever you see a number in a parenthesis I’m referring to this) not total production. Rhys Hoskins is great if you’re the rebellious teenager of your fantasy league and he’ll probably hit a bunch of home runs (with a mediocre average and no speed), but at his ADP of 49, I’ll wait and take known quantities later. Alright, let’s start defining this teenager.
Flips
Joe Mauer (395)
Perhaps nobody (total hyperbole) knows better what it’s like to be put in a box than Mauer. For all the things Mauer can’t do, there is one thing he can: hit for average. Last year Mauer hit .305 (.322 xAVG) and–while he’ll never make a run at prodigious power–he did have 18 xHR last year. Only seven cleared the wall, but over the last two months of 2018 Mauer had a hard hit fly ball rate around 50% and 7.0 xHR. He also had an xAVG of .353 over the same time frame.
Mauer hits second in a stacked Twins lineup, so the counting stats should be there. Bottom line: If he doesn’t hit for power, you’re still getting a guy who returned$7-$17 (depending who you ask) for $1; if he hits for some power you’re getting more. He’s worth the late-round pick.
Other Flips:
- At the beginning of last year, I though Edwin Encarnacion (57) had lost his skills. His contact rate dropped and so did the hearts of many fantasy baseball owners. Thankfully, at least for his patient fantasy owners, he rebounded (as did his skills). While we wonder if Cody Bellinger (26) and Rhys Hoskins (49) can maintain the hot start to their careers, Encarnacion has now posted 30 home runs in six consecutive years and 35+ in five of six without hurting your batting average.
- I like the group of first basemen going 170-190 in ADP. Carlos Santana (170) will have to adjust to a new league, but he has strong plate skills that have helped him produce consistently. An increase in line drives has also helped him boost his batting average to the point it doesn’t hurt you (.275 & .276 xAVG last two seasons). He also appears to have a power stroke tailor made for Citizens Park (hat tip to @fantasy_keith for first point the spray chart out to me. Give him a follow.).
- Josh Bell (188) had a nice mini-breakout last year. While he outperformed his xHR (26 HR vs. 22.8 xHR), he underperformed his xAVG by 17 points (.270 xAVG) and had steady skills growth. He has strong plate discipline skills in his profile, so don’t be surprised if they continue to improve. He also may be working on getting his launch angle up (51% GB in 2017) as evidenced by a big increase in balls hit in the air during spring training, which may be one of the few sticky spring training stats.
- If Matt Carpenter (191) can fix his launch angle issues (too high) and stay healthy, he will be a beast. He has a unique set of both plate skills (elite contact, o-swing% and hard hit %) and batted ball profile (high FB% and LD%, low GB%) that are worth the risk at his ADP. Even if he just repeats last year, he’s still getting you value there.
- I’ve shared my love for Jose Martinez (251) before, so I won’t go into detail here. Only question is playing time. Always go skills over roles.
- Chris Davis (245), despite the 37% strikeout rate has actually improved some of his contact and plate discipline skills recently. It hasn’t shown in the results (37.2% K last year), but if you’re desperate for power and have some batting average cushion, worse options exist. Or wait for…
- You can great value late at first base. Brandon Belt (305), CJ Cron (351), and Lucas Duda (404) could all hit 30 HR with a .250 batting average.
Flops
Rhys Hoskins (49) and Cody Bellinger (26)
Hoskins is a pretty easy choice here. He had a wonderful start to his career in 2017, but he’s unlikely to continue his record-setting pace. In traditional 5×5 leagues, he’ll likely only contribute in three categories (in OBP it’s a different story). His steamer projection is fine at .263-84-37-98-5, but you can get similar (if not better) production from the aforementioned Encarnacion or wait and draft the rejuvenated Justin Smoak at 155 (.249-79-30-89-1 steamer projection). The skill set is impressive, but it’s not unique or special in batting average leagues.
Cody Bellinger is a bit tougher. I love Bellinger. I owned him in every league last year. Still, the price is steep. I’m not in the camp of folks who believe the Astros pitchers found him out. Instead, I think his profile shows a player who got tired after playing many more games than his career high. His plate skills actually improved as the season progressed, but his hard hit and fly ball rate slowly eroded. The Astros also have really good pitchers who throw really good breaking balls. A lot of teams don’t. I think Bellinger will be fine, but last year–particularly the beginning–was special. I can see him hitting .270 with 35 HR and 10 SB, I’d just rather have the guys going around him at other positions (Donaldson, second tier SP1s, Bregman, Gordon, etc.) and draft an Encarnacion or Abreu or wait for one of the solid mid-tier players.
In fantasy baseball it mostly pays to go with the known quantities, though they may be less fun to draft. Winning is more fun.
Other Flops:
- Ian Desmond (112) owns one of the ugliest batted ball profiles in baseball for 2017, though Jonathan Lucroy might give him a run for his money. While you may be quick to blame his injury for the struggles, the decline in his batted ball profile began in 2016. The stolen bases are nice for the position and the counting stats may be OK, but don’t be fooled by his 2017 batting average. Desmond outperformed both his xAVG by 24 points (.274 AVG vs. .250 xAVG) and his xHR (7 HR vs. 5 xHR). The batting average, OBP (for runs) and poor power will be a major drag. No thanks at that price.
- Greg Bird (145) certainly has some tantalizing skills and an ideal context for doing damage both in terms of the Yankees lineup and Yankee stadium. Still, he has yet to reach 200 plate appearances in any season and you have the option to draft Justin Smoak and his 38 HR ten picks later, wait two rounds to grab Matt Carpenter or even wait to get Brandon Belt at 305 who comes with a very similar profile (though not the right field porch of Yankee Stadium).
- I also have to include Miguel Cabrera (97), despite the relatively low ADP. Not only did he produce the least convincing offseason workout video, but back injuries aren’t anything to mess with, especially for someone his age. Couple that with an inferior Tigers lineup and I’m not taking the risk. I’m monitoring his spring training exploits, where I haven’t seen great reviews and he has yet to hit a home run in 27 at bats.
- Eric Thames’ (209) presence on this list is a result of playing time questions more so than production. With the addition of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich and Ryan Braun’s move to first base, Thames appears to be the odd man out. Couple that with his inability to hit left handed pitchers (career .198 AVG) and his opportunities are further reduced. If I want someone with talent and playing time concerns, I’ll go with Jose Martinez 50 picks later. You can also draft his profile later
- Before the purge of the Marlins began, I might’ve had Justin Bour (199) as a potential flip at his ADP. The Marlins lack of talent and a deeper look at Bour’s numbers raise concerns about taking him here, despite a reasonable price. Bour has yet to surpass 450 plate appearances in his major league career, partially due to injuries and partially because he’s been platooned against lefties. While Bour had a .253 batting average against lefties in 2017, the underlying batted ball profile wasn’t impressive (.217 xAVG). Moreover, his 25 HR came on 21.5 xHR and he’s unlikely to see either the quality of pitches he did last year or have the bases full of terrific hitters when he bats. As a result, his RBIs seem less than sure and he only scored 53 runs last season despite 25 HR. In other words, it’s hard to see him contributing like other similarly priced players or even players going later on.
Other Notes
- Trey Mancini (151) is intriguing. He hits the ball very hard in the air (52.9%) despite a low fly ball rate and underperformed his xHR by 5.2 (24 HR vs. 29.2 xHR). He already has a solid batting average and has shown improvement in his plate skills.
- Eric Hosmer (82) had some major skills gains in the second half of 2017. I thought about ranking him above Hoskins, but the new environment, pressure and lack of talent in the Padres lineup kept me from doing so.
- Joey Gallo (107) improved his contact and plate discipline in the second half of 2017, which resulted in a drop in his strikeouts and an increase in his walks. He also lowered his fly ball rate from around 60% (BABIP hell) to a more reasonable 50% while increasing his line drive rate at the same time. Believe it or not, his .229 second half average came on a .251 xAVG in July through September. The price seems fair, but there is plenty of risk, so make sure you have a very strong batting average floor in place before drafting him.
- Logan Morrison (287) is going pretty late, so he’s not necessarily a flop, but there are some major red flags in his skill decline in the second half of last season. He also outperformed his xHR by 7.8 (38 HR vs. 30.2 xHR), so don’t expect a repeat in 2018.
I hope you’ve found the preview helpful. Feel free to follow me on twitter and let me know if you agree or disagree with any of the analysis.