As a fantasy manager, nothing is more important than understanding each of your players’ BABIPs (batting average on balls in play). Understanding their BABIPs will be the key to your season as May and June approach and you consider whether to sell high, buy low, buy high or sell high. Let’s go on a journey, you and I, on some adventures in early season BABIP.
Todd Frazier
If you drafted Todd Frazier hoping to fill a gaping hole in your team’s batting average, you’re doing this fantasy baseball thing wrong. Most people were looking for Frazier’s speed/power combo when they drafted him. Regardless of why you drafted him, Frazier’s owners are a disappointed group so far.
His BABIP currently sits at .111, which has some owners wondering if they should abandon ship. Frazier’s recent history is checkered with low BABIPs, as a result of high fly ball and, in particular, infield fly ball rates (the equivalent of a hitting strikeouts). Surprising, Frazier’s xBABIP so far is .318, according to xStats.org, which means he’s been very unlucky so far on balls in play. Owners of the White Sox slugger should expect the batting average to creep up.
The one area of concern for Frazier is that his hard hit rate is down 10% from last season, though I wouldn’t be overly concerned because it’s so early in the season and it’s likely a result of his catching the early season flu bug. Frazier has averaged about 35 home runs over the past three season and at 31, his power shouldn’t evaporate this quickly.
One bright spot for Frazier this season is his contact rate, which is up 8.6% from last season to 81.9%. This could bode well for Frazier’s batting average, though it’s early in the season and it would mark the highest contact rate of his career by some margin. Either way, owners should hold on to Frazier, since better days are on the horizon.
James McCann
Not to be confused with namesake Brian, James has the unenviable position of having the worst BABIP in baseball among hitters with at least 49 plate appearances. His .074 BABIP is insanely low and it doesn’t take fantasy expertise to know that it should be headed up and quickly (xBABIP of .248).
McCann is in this column because he’s only owned in 7% of Yahoo! leagues and he’s crushing the ball. His hard hit rate of 48.1% is excellent and it comes with improved plate discipline thus far (16.3% walk rate), which is supported by less swings at pitches outside the zone and overall. In other words, he’s being selective on the pitches he swings at and he’s punishing them.
McCann’s batting average currently sits at .150 while his expected mark is at .285, according to xStats. He is also trying to elevate the ball more, with increases in both his line drive and fly ball rates. All of these developments, along with his bad luck thus far, bode well for his prospects for the remainder of the year.
Fantasy owners could do worse in two catcher leagues than to look at taking advantage of the BABIP to include McCann as an unsuspecting throw-in in trades or, in one catcher leagues, rotate him with another non-elite backstop.
Hanley Ramirez
Ramirez has battled shoulder issues early this season and his .235 BABIP and corresponding .210 average are probably confirming fantasy owners’ suspicions that something is wrong. Well, the underlying skills say otherwise.
Hanley’s xBABIP is .307 and his hitting skills early in 2017 are stronger than his excellent 2016 season.
Hanley Ramirez
Early 2017 vs. 2016LD+FB% | Hard hit % | Barrels/BBE | Exit Velo on FB/LD | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 61.6% | 38.5% | 15.6% | 95.2 |
2016 | 51.7% | 37.2% | 10.4% | 94.6 |
A quick peek at Ramirez’s hard contact skills show that, despite just one home run, he’s hitting the ball harder in 2017 and elevating it. That is a recipe for success and an approach that should pay dividends for patient fantasy owners.
With the questions swirling around Ramirez’s health and his unlucky BABIP, fantasy owners have an opportunity to buy low on a fantasy stud who hits at the heart of a strong Red Sox lineup. While injuries are always a possibility with Hanley, the reward is certainly worth the risk.
Thanks for joining us on adventures in early season BABIPs. We’ll be back later this week to look at some more players who have been lucky or unlucky on balls in play.