A few weeks ago, I signed up to participate in a series of early mock drafts with other fantasy baseball analysts appropriately called #2EarlyMock. You can find my first post covering overall strategy and analysis of my first five picks here.
Heading into Round 6 of the #2EarlyMock, I wanted to address my weakest area on offense (power) and begin building up depth in my rotation. My focus was on high-ceiling pitchers to compensate for my lack of a true ace. Pitcher injuries have been a crapshoot recently, so I’m fine taking on risk if it comes with strong skills and confidence that, when the pitcher does pitch, the stats will be there.
Rounds 6-10
Khris Davis (6.89) (ADP: 80.5)
Davis falling to 89 fit my needs perfectly. Over the past two years, nobody outside of Giancarlo Stanton has hit more home runs than Davis. Unlike his namesake, Chris Davis, Khris has contributed elite power numbers while maintaining impeccable consistency in his batting average (.247 in each of the past three seasons).
I built up the foundation of high batting average bats so I didn’t have to worry about adding power bats like Davis’. In addition, Khris has also posted very good run and RBI totals the past two years, eclipsing 85 runs and 100 RBI in both.
Davis showed improved plate discipline and contact skills in the season’s second half, pointing to a possible return in 2018 to better (but still not good) strikeout rates. His improved plate discipline should help him maintain his 10%+ walk rate.
Couple that with a 2.3% jump in line drive rate (including a 5.2% increase in balls hit between 10° and 19°), a career low 0.91 GB/FB rate and an improving young A’s team and there is potential upside in addition to consistency.
Zack Godley (7.92) (ADP: 105.25)
My love for Godley started when I analyzed his early success back in June and has continued as a result of consistently elite strikeout skills and ground ball rates.
Zack Godley: Rank Among Pitchers with 150+ IPGB% | GB/FB | O-swing% | Contact% | SwStr% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Godley | 55.3% | 2.11 | 33.1% | 69.9% | 13.3% |
MLB Rank | 4th | 5th | 10th | 4th | 9th |
Source: Fangraphs.com
Despite a poor end to September when his velocity dropped, Godley ranked 16th in ERA and 12th in WHIP for pitchers with 150 or more innings pitched. Nearly one out of every two balls in play (46.3%) were hit under 0°, making him one of the elite ground ball pitchers in the game.
Once again, I drafted Godley a bit early compared to his ADP, but I love the skills and production this season. He should build on his 155 innings in 2017 and hopefully get closer to 180 innings next season, while also providing strong returns across the four starting pitching categories. I also considered Aaron Nola in this spot, but the stronger skills and better team broke the tie.
My major concern with Godley is the drop in velocity, most pronounced at the end of the season, which coincided with some poor results. It’s too early to know if he was injured or just tired, but it’s worth monitoring over the winter and through the spring. If his velocity isn’t back, I might downgrade him and go with Nola instead.
Rich Hill (8.119) (ADP: 126.25)
I love Rich Hill. This past season, I owned him in every league (in one I traded for him mid-season). When he pitches, you can count on getting an ERA in the low-3.00s, a WHIP in the 1.00-1.10 range and elite strikeout totals. This season he racked up 166 strikeout in only 135.2 innings pitched.
That fact, and Hill more generally, personifies my strategy with starting pitching. It used to be that very good starting pitchers would need 200 innings to get to 200 strikeouts. Now you can get 150-160 from 135 innings and have a solid closer or even middle reliever who makes up the difference while contributing strong ratios.
One area where Hill hasn’t gotten as much attention in 2017 is his excellent contact management skills. Of starting pitchers with at least 2,000 pitches in 2017, Hill finished 11th in xwOBA behind a who’s who of elite pitchers. His curveball also gets the most attention, but he increased the use of his fastball in 2017 (up 7%) and it ranked 6th among all starters with at least 130 inning pitched on Fangraphs pitch values.
Blisters have always been the issue for Hill, but it’s important to note he didn’t have any recurrence of the injury after her returned from the DL on May 16. While I wouldn’t bet on him getting close to 180 innings, I’m happy to get 130 innings of awesome from him. I love you, Rich Hill.
Luis Castillo (9.122) (ADP: 117)
Heading into the ninth round, I was deciding between another pitcher I loved (Castillo) and a few hitters I’m excited about next season: Ender Inciarte, Steven Souza and Eugenio Suarez. Given the abundance of depth at hitting, I went with Castillo because he has the potential to be elite sooner rather than later.
My favorite stat for Castillo is this:
List of pitchers (not counting today) w/ as many IP as Luis Castillo & similar K%, BB% & contact management skills #fantasybaseball #reds pic.twitter.com/35yLDYNq7G
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) September 6, 2017
Castillo, like Hill, has excellent contact management skills. Among pitchers with at least 1,250 pitchers (which includes some relievers), Castillo finished 7th in xwOBA. As you’ll see from the table below, he ranked among the best pitchers at managing contact across a number of key stats.
Luis Castillo: Contact Management Ranks (80+ IP)xBA | xwOBA | Barrels/Pitch | LD% | GB% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Castillo | .191 | .257 | 0.54% | 12.2% | 58.8% |
MLB Rank | 8th | 7th | 3rd | 1st | 7th |
MLB Average | .242 | .314 | 1.09% | 20.3% | 44.2% |
Source: Baseball Savant and Fangraphs.com
In addition to the contact management skills, he ranked in the top 20 among starting pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched in swinging strike rate, contact rate and contact rate inside the zone.
Another reason I love Castillo: He got stronger as the season progressed. Instead of hitters adjusting to him, he seemed to find his groove. Over his last five start, he put up this line: 29IP, 1.86 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 12.1 K/9 (35.4 K% & 5.5 BB%). His final start was September 6, so you can’t blame September roster expansion for his success.
I want those skills on my team. At this point in the draft, I feel good about having four starters who last year combined for a 3.21 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 585 strikeouts in 516 innings (10.22 K/9). It provides a strong foundation in four categories and gives me some wiggle room later in ratios.
Eddie Rosario (10.149) (ADP: 151.5)
Over the next 27 picks, other managers picked virtually all of my offensive targets, including my reach pick of Shin-Soo Choo and Justin Bour, who I plan to target in many drafts next season. The pick came down to Eddie Rosario, Bradley Zimmer or a closer (Brad Hand or Felipe Rivero).
I went with Rosario because of his strong skill development over 2017 and balanced profile of five category contributions (.290, 79, 27, 78 & 9).
First, the skill growth from Rosario over the second half is exciting. Not only was he able to improve his contact rates and plate discipline, but he did so while increasing his hard hit rate. Few things get me more excited than the combination of increased contact, plate discipline and hard hit rate (see Justin Smoak this year).
With the improved skills, Rosario came through with a strong second half. Over 294 plate appearances, he managed to hit .292 with 42 runs scored, 17 home runs, 52 RBI and 5 stolen bases while improving in virtually every hitting skill. His xStats supported the power surge, as he posted 19.6 xHR from July onward.
Couple Rosario’s hitting improvement with a suddenly loaded lineup and Rosario could have a true breakout season batting cleanup in 2018 for the Twins.