Last week I shared some of the strategy and rationale behind the first 12 picks of the first draft of my 2020 fantasy baseball season. At the end of 12 rounds, I felt good about the offensive balance in my team and having Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler leading my rotation. Starting pitching depth, another closer and power bats were priorities over the next stretch of picks. Here’s how I tried to address those needs in picks 13 through 23.
13.194 Sal Perez
Perez missed all of last year with Tommy John surgery, but I don’t see any reason not to draft him for injury-related concerns. Recently we’ve seen other high performing hitters return from Tommy John without issue, including Gleyber Torres and Shohei Ohtani.
Perez checks the box for another high-end catcher to partner with J.T. Realmuto, which was part of my strategy heading in. Perez hit 27 HR in 2018, before the juiced ball, so we know the power is legit. He did hit .235 in 2018, but the profile was very similar to 2017 and his xBA was the same (.260). I’m not expecting the world from Perez, but .250 with 20+ HR, 50 R and 70 RBI from my C2 will work just fine.
14.197 Joe Musgrove
Musgrove was a disappointment this year. As a result, his draft price has plummeted. I probably reached a bit early for him here, but continue to love the skills and the price. With a new pitching coach (and hopefully philosophy) in Pittsburgh, I’m willing to bet on Musgrove and his skills again.
Let’s go! pic.twitter.com/jQHSRvl25I
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) October 11, 2019
Early in 2019, Musgrove’s velocity was down, likely the result of offseason abdominal surgery and the lack of a full spring training. Towards the end of the season his velocity improved, hovering above 95 MPH for his last few starts.
He still possesses a great arsenal with three breaking/offspeed pitches that have swinging strike rates higher than 17%, o-swings higher than 40% and wRC+s below 100 , including a curveball he reintroduced toward the end of last year, which also generated a 57.6% ground ball rate. Those are skills and an arsenal worth betting on–again.
15.224 Sandy Alcantara
Toward the end of last season, Alcantara’s name started popping up on a number of small sample leaderboards. When I dug deeper, I noticed that he’d started throwing his sinker a lot more, faded his fourseam, and that the sinker had been a very effective pitch for him.
Small sample, but interesting development w/ Sandy Alcantara’s pitch mix. He’s improved dramatically by INCREASING his sinker usage:
FA: 23.3% o-swing, 86.7% contact, 6.3% SwStr, 32.9% GB❄️
SI: 30.4% o-swing, 77.2% contact, 12% SwStr, 65.1% GB🔥
K%📈 BB% 📉 GB%📈 pic.twitter.com/HrpfBuC44q
— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) September 4, 2019
In his 10 games after the move to a sinker-heavy approach (beginning August 10), Alcantara saw his BB% plummet to 6.5% (it had been at 11.3% up to that point in the season). The drop in BB% was supported by a dramatic increase in his zone% and o-swing%. The lower BB% led him to 14.3% K-BB over those last 10 starts in which he averaged 6.91 IP/GS and 5.8 K/GS.
While Alcantara’s low K% limits some upside, he should provide decent volume moving forward, if he maintains the lower BB%. The elite velocity provides room for upside and makes confident in his ability to limit quality of contact more consistently than most pitchers. The benefit of starting with two aces is that I don’t have to worry as much about my other starters being great–good will be just fine.
16.227 Mark Melancon
Melancon is another player I plan to target in 2020, not because I see any particular skills that stand out but because he’s the closer on a competing team. Assuming he stays around this range in drafts, which I expect given his age and profile, the price is worth the risk and the pick has plenty of upside if Melancon can spread out his blown saves and not struggle early. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but at a high variance position I’d rather bet on him at this cost than a better closer earlier in the draft with similar risk.
If you are looking for some hope, his velocity did increase as the season progressed and his curveball generates solid whiffs with a 70% ground ball rate.
17.254 C.J. Cron
By the time 2020 drafts happen in March, I expect Cron’s price to be closer to pick 200. Before injuring his thumb in the second half, Cron was on pace for his second consecutive 30-HR season and a career year. He had shown tremendous growth with a 4% increase in contact, a 3% decrease in o-swing and a third consecutive year with improved hard hit rate.
Cron’s Statcast metrics are also very strong, comparing favorably to sluggers going much higher in drafts like Jorge Soler (see below). He finished right above Soler with 10.6% barrels/PA, which ranked seventh in MLB among hitters with 100 batted ball events. His max exit velocity of 115.9 MPH is in the top 20.
Among hitters with at least 450 PA, Cron also finished with the third-highest underperformance of his xwOBA at 38 points (.367 xwOBA vs. .329 wOBA). This included underperforming his xBA by 21 points (.274 xBA vs. .253 BA) and his xSLG by 62 points (.531 xSLG vs. .469 SLG). He should see the positive side of regression in 2020 batting in the middle of a loaded Twins lineup. He makes for a great late pick if you need power (and I do!).
18.257 Ross Stripling
With some uncertainty in the Dodgers starting rotation heading into 2020 and their love for shuffling guys in and out, Stripling is an upside play at this point in the draft. He now has three consecutive seasons of a sub-4.00 ERA, sub-1.20 WHIP and a strikeout per inning (OK, in 2017 he had a 8.96 K/9).
While Stripling may not make the starting rotation out of spring training this year, he could provide some value as a long reliever in weeks with poor pitching matchups or if the Dodgers have a couple low-IP starters like Rich Hill or Julio Urias who don’t always go five innings. His versatility also has a little more value in a draft-and-hold league with deeper benches.
19.284 Ryan Yarbrough
Yarbrough struggled early in 2019 before his demotion to AAA. After returning from AAA on May 23, Yarbrough pitched well with a 3.60 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and a 17.7% K-BB in 125 IP. Of particular note, he had a 3.3% BB over the same period of time. He did this all while losing ~1.5 MPH from 2018 on most pitches.
The improved performance and skills coincided with increased use of his cutter; in fact, it became his primary “fastball.” Most importantly, it replaced a truly awful sinker in his repertoire. The cutter had a .326 xwOBACON (courtesy of Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboards) compared to a .456 on his sinker (.370 is league average for xwOBACON). It also drew a lot more swings outside the zone, which was key for both limiting contact and lowering his BB%.
On an improving Rays team, Yarbrough should have a spot in the rotation next season and should be a decent source of wins.
20.287 Dylan Bundy
Bundy is a pitcher I covet heading into 2020 because of the price, organizational context and repertoire. As you can see, the price is low (he had an ADP of 428 in the 2EarlyMocks, so I probably reached).
On the repertoire, Bundy boasts two great pitches from a skills perspective. His slider boasts a 22.2% SwStr, 41.3% o-swing and 76.3% z-contact, while his changeup has an 18.1% SwStr, 48.1% o-swing and a 79.6% z-contact. These qualities make both great knockout pitches.
The challenge with Bundy is his fastball. It sat at 91.2 MPH in 2019, down from 91.6 in 2018 and a career high of 94.6 MPH in 2016. The pitch gets absolutely lit up. Toward the end of 2019, however, he began throwing his fourseam fastball a lot less and his sinker a lot more. The sinker isn’t a great pitch, but it generates more ground balls (giving him three pitches with greater than 50% ground ball rates) and doesn’t get as lit up (career 125 wRC+ for the sinker compared to a 153 career wRC+ for the fourseam).
That brings us to context. The Orioles are undergoing a player development revolution, as their new GM and Co. from the Astros have now had a year to settle in. If any organization can coax additional velocity (or at least improvement) out a pitcher’s fastball, it has to be one led by former Astros player development personnel who must see similar ace potential in Bundy.
If the velocity doesn’t improve, the sinker route is another option. Over his final 9 games with elevated sinker rates and decreased fourseam usage, Bundy had better than league average SwStr (12.4%), z-contact (83.9%), f-strike (64.2%) and o-swing (37.6%). His ground ball rate also jumped to 50.3%.
In the past I’ve been out on Bundy because of the quality of contact concerns, but this year I’m hoping for a breakout and will likely have a lot of shares. Please send thoughts and prayers.
21.314 Yandy Diaz
Diaz is another example of a player I’ve targeted who either underperformed according to Statcast and other data sources or had an injury that dropped their draft price. Diaz falls into the latter category. During his first full MLB season (347 PA), Diaz put up a 600 PA pace of 24 HR, 92 R, 66 RBI, 3 SB with a .267 batting average. Solid overall, but there is reason to believe he can perform much better if he continues to display strong plate skills (above average contact and plate discipline), hit the ball hard (42.4% in 2019) and reduce his ground ball rate (-2.5% from 2018). And then there are those Statcast metrics …
22.317 Robinson Cano
Cano had the worst year of his career by far in 2019 and drafters have taken notice–his draft price has plummeted more than 150 spots from last season. Cano is old, but his skills haven’t fallen off a cliff like his performance.
Cano’s strikeout rate increased about 3% from last year to 16.5% (still elite), but his contact rate remained the same. In fact, over his last 40 games of 2019 Cano had a strong 84% contact rate (77% is league average). His hard hit rate fell by 3%, but was still league average and 5% better than his career average. His average exit velocity fell by 2.5 MPH, but was equal to his career average and his barrels/PA (5.7%) and max exit velo (112.1) were fine. Cano also underperformed his xBA (.275) by 19 points (.256 BA). In other words, there’s reason to believe Cano wasn’t (or isn’t) as bad as last season’s numbers suggest.
Did he underperform because his quality of contact metrics are in decline? Was it the slew of injuries he suffered throughout the year? Is he just old AF? I don’t know (except for the last part). What I do know is that I feel comfortable taking a shot on a Hall of Fame second baseman who should have every opportunity at full-time at bats to start 2019 at a price well beyond pick 300.
23.344 Alex Young
Alex Young’s stretch run got my attention. Over his final five games (see below), Young put up some nice skills, including a 14% swinging strike rate and a 38% o-swing. Both those numbers are elite.
Not shown on the graph? A 31.8% CSW that tied him with Aaron Nola for 13th best mark over the season’s last month. Young was fortunate on balls in play (.298 wOBA compared to a .315 xwOBA) in 2019, but he also possesses an interesting repertoire.
Young lacks velocity and an effective fastball (his fourseam, sinker and cutter are all below average), but three of his pitches have swinging strike rates higher than 13.8% (cutter, curveball, changeup). The curveball and changeup have swinging strike rates of 18.8% and 16.9%, respectively, and both pitches have ground ball rates greater than 60%.
He may just be a flash in the pan that never shows up again, but the repertoire generates enough interest to make him worthy of a gamble. Here’s hoping he adds some velocity over the winter.
After 23 rounds of the draft, I feel pretty good about my team. Given that I reached on some pitchers, I probably should’ve waited another round or two to attack starting pitching depth and focused on hitting depth. That said, I feel good about at least one of those pitchers emerging as a strong contributor this year.
My hitting is balanced, with the vast majority of players–including those who steal bases–projected for at least 20 home runs. No player projects for single-digit home runs and only one player could be categorized as a batting average hole (Perez). Where a lot of teams have to ask more from their non-catchers to compensate for the position’s lack of production, I feel good about having two top 10, if not top 5, catchers.
Once the draft resumes in January, I’ll need to add another closer or two, more starting pitching depth, more power, and some speed. I’m also cognizant of the lack of positional flexibility on my roster, so targeting some dual and mutli-position eligible players for a draft-and-hold format will be key. Trying to fill all these holes should be fun!